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US Non-Farm Payroll 05 Mar 10

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Good day,

welcome to the monthly US Non-Farm Payroll Report.

To manage expectations, contrary to what it may seem, the main purpose of this segment is to highlight the dangers and risks of trading the US Non-Farm Payroll.

The koala does not support NFP trading.

The US Non Farm Payroll was better than expected. Clocking in a loss of 36 000 jobs versus the estimated loss of 56 000.

The initial reaction or the “Knee Jerk” reaction i like to call it, was a gain in US Dollar strength. Do note that the time frame displayed above is of the 5 minutes time frame. The move was fast. It did not come as a surprise as the job situation performed “better” than expected.

Minutes later however came the dark surprise. While many folks stacked on their US Dollar long positions, the price action action began to show signs of US Dollar weakness. In about half an hour, the currency pair recovered it’s previous losses.

The next hour brought us more wild ranging action as investors sought to make sense of the data. May i remind you that although the US Non Farm Payroll came out better than expected, it is still a loss and hence still a net loss in jobs. The US Unemployment crisis is critical and long term investors may see this as a sign of a fragile job market.

After hitting a peak around 3 hours later, the price action could be last seen dipping down, as it prepared for a close of 1.3620+/-.

Many margin accounts were wiped out that day and i hope yours was not one of them.

Trade safely and always practice proper money management.

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