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EUR/USD Weekly Forecast 23 Jan 17

Good day forex traders.

Welcome to our weekly review of the EUR/USD forecast.

In our previous forecast, we noted that the currency pair was experiencing an area of influence at 1.06. More bullish action might be seen if the EUR/USD breaks clear of it.

 

 

Looking at the EUR/USD weekly chart we note that 1.06 is down and as expected, it is moving towards 1.08.

The region of 1.08 may provide significant resistance. It is usually an area of influence and the middle bollinger band is there too.

We are expecting text book support and resistance levels for now. 1.06 / 1.08 / 1.1

From a fundamental point of view, the time has come and the new US President has been sworn in. With the perceived protectionism stance of President Trump, many are looking towards a strengthening US dollar.

Having said so, there are concerns. President Trump mentioned that if China doesn’t play fair trade, he would impose a 45% tax. A number of economists are forecasting that it would hurt the US economy more. BBC reports

” President Trump says his plan is good economics, and would create more jobs in the US.

But many economists argue this would hurt US consumers more than it would hurt Chinese businesses.

Global research house Capital Economics says American consumers may have to pay up to 10% more for Chinese-made goods if tariffs were imposed.

Those goods include things like your laptop, refrigerator and mobile phone.

But it’s not just Chinese companies making these products.

Many US firms have manufacturing bases in China and would be hit by any kind of import tariffs as well.

Half of US imports from China are electronics or machines, and that includes Apple’s iPhones.

But what if the iPhone were to be made completely in the US, which is in theory at least, the new president’s goal?

At least one study says the cost of an iPhone manufactured in the US would only shoot up by 5%.

But that’s only if the components are still sourced overseas. Make those parts at home – and the price goes even higher, hurting profits of US firms like Apple.

It’s not just iPhones though. Tariffs would likely hit goods across a variety of sectors. ”

A weakening economy may see it’s currency losing value. We need to monitor this as it develops.

This week brings important economic events. Germany is euro’s largest economy and hence do keep a look out for the German Ifo Business Climate. Over in the US, we are expecting unemployment claims too.

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