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EUR/USD Forex Forecast Weekly Review 18 Mar 12

Good day forex traders.

How do you spend your weekends? Do you normally take a break and catch up on sleep or perhaps you grab the opportunity to reconnect with nature? A walk in the park perhaps? Let me know!

In the previous weekly forex forecast review of the EUR/USD we noted that the SMA 50 was functioning as an immediate support. A failure of which could bring us to the extended target of 1.3. Fundamentally we noted that the Euro Zone remains shrouded in weaken economic data and outlooks.

Technical Analysis

Looking at the EUR/USD chart above, we noted a touch and go of the 1.3 extended bearish target. I LOVE IT WHEN MY CHARTS WORK 🙂

SMA 20 ( RED ) = flat
SMA 50 (BLUE) = bullish

The SMAs are not in unison and hence we probably will not see any sustained momentum. Watch out for a crossover of the SMA 20 below the SMA 50. If that happens, it may suggests more bearish pressure. The SMA 50 is functioning as an immediate resistance together with the region of 1.32.

Fundamental Analysis

Lately more and more economists and experts are voicing their opinions of a dimming outlook of the global economy. International Monetary Fund IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde was reported as urging caution too. 3 main areas are probably of concern.

  • Increasing oil prices ( currently $126+ for Brent Crude Oil ) leading to increased prices of production and manufacture
  • Increasing debt levels of countries such as the Euro Zone budget deficit crisis
  • Slowing growth of the emerging markets and hence the lessened spur given to the global economy at large
With respect to the EUR/USD, i always mentioned that it is a choice of the less ugly. Euro Zone budget deficit crisis? Ok lets pack up and head to the US of A! Oh unemployment rate in the US going over the top? Let’s cross the Atlantic to the Euro Zone.

Therefore to increase your chances of success in trading this currency pair, you have to be very much in touch on the developments of the US and the Euro Zone. For example with regards to Greece, we are not out of the woods yet as it faces it’s fifth year of recession and struggles to implement austority measures.

Trade Safely.

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