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EUR/USD Forex Forecast Weekly Review 31 Mar 12

Good day forex traders.

What an exciting week eh? Earth Hour which represents our commitment to save Earth from environmental destruction was held. Did you participate? Besides that i went to watch the long anticipated movie adaption of The Hunger Games. Excellent movie indeed. Jennifer Lawrence nailed the character right on!

In the previous EUR/USD forex forecast weekly review we noted that both SMAs were flat and hence the currency pair might go either ways. If the current bullish momentum continued, the first target would be 1.34 though 1.3360 is an immediate resistance in my charts of a lower time frame. Equities worldwide were mainly green due to the speculation of possible future economic stimulus, perhaps in the form of a new quantitative easing by the US Federal Reserve.

Technical Analysis

As mentioned, the 1.34 will probably be a target of any bullish momentum and it was nearly reached. 1.3360 proved to have had an influence on the currency pair. I LOVE IT WHEN MY CHARTS WORK 🙂

SMA 20 = bullish
SMA 50 = bullish

While both SMAs are bullish, we probably should wait for a cross over of the SMA 20 towards the upside of the SMA 50 first before considering any possibility of further rallies. Do note though that 1.34 is usually a strong resistance and the SMA 200 which reflects long term possibilities is still bearish and may act as a resistance too.

Fundamental Analysis

It was reported that the European officials were pleased with Spain’s budget measures for the year 2012 as the target of a 3 percent deficit for 2013 remains. Quick implementation was urged. Spain is a big economy and it was hit hard by the Euro Zone debt crisis. It has the highest unemployment rate in the Euro Zone at more than 23%. Should Spain fall victim to the budget deficit crisis, salvaging the situation may prove to be complex.

Over in the US, the Non-Farm Payroll will be released on Friday and this economic data will be closely monitored for any signs of continued improvement. Any adverse release may derail risk taking sentiments. We also have to remind ourselves that the housing market in the US remains fragile.

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