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EUR/USD Forex Forecast Review 14 May 12


Good day forex traders.


I hope you are having a good weekend so far. I am very tired from the week. Will my dream of running a farm ever come true?

In the previous weekly EUR/USD forecast, we noted a possible bearish target of 1.3. Sentiments were  mainly apprehensive as the poor figures from the US Non-Farm Payroll together with the uncertainty of the polls of France and Greece brought about a negative outlook.




Technical Analysis

The week was basically a bearish week. The forex gap almost closed but the bulls gave up.

Dear readers, this serves as a reminder to us that forex gap do not always close within the week as many have wrongly believed.

SMA 20 = Bearish

SMA 50 = Turning Bearish

With the SMA 50 almost bearish, we may be looking at a sustained bearish momentum soon. The bearish target of 1.28 remains and any bullish correction need to tackle the 1.3 resistance first.


Fundamental Analysis

Greece takes the central stage again as the possibility of the country leaving the Euro Zone swamps the markets with apprehension. Schools of thoughts are divided on this issue as a number of economists believe that an exit of Greece from the euro zone would be manageable while others warn of financial turmoil.

Personally i believe that no one has the right answer. Speculations are aplenty and the situation is pretty much out of any single one’s control. One thing for sure is that such political divide ranks badly with the markets as stability is an important factor for economic growth.

It was reported that the Greek president is meeting up with party leaders in a bid to form a government that advocates remaining in the Euro Zone. This will also avoid having to conduct a second vote. Pay close attention to this. Any developments may change market conditions.

It was reported that European Central Bank council member Panicos Demetriades commented on the need for growth policies to uplift the Euro Zone from the budget deficit crisis. Austerity alone is not enough to solve the issue. Well seems like my opinion on the solution to the Euro Zone budget deficit crisis was right on the money. Ha !

Expect continued volatility and hence do put on your proper money management hats!


Trade Safely.


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