Forex Guides

EUR/USD Forecast March 24

Good day forex traders and readers.

Welcome to the EUR/USD weekly forecast and I hope you made money from forex trading last week. Personally I think as long as it is a single pip of profit, it definitely beats a loss!

In the previous EUR/USD forecast we noted that the currency pair had failed in it’s attempt to test the critical resistance of 1.4. It was back at the 1.3900 region. As expected, there was strong downwards pressure.1.4 remained a critical resistance while the immediate support was 1.38.


Technical Analysis

Looking at the EUR/USD daily chart above we note that the currency pair failed to gain any bullish momentum after the previous attempt to conquer 1.4. It is now testing 1.38 falling just below it.

Should the support of 1.38 fail, we may be looking at 1.368 followed by 1.36.

Any bullish attempt to regain lost ground will no doubt need to face the crucial resistance of 1.4 again.

Our forex writer Elmar has identified a long term bearish trend on the monthly chart. From a fundamental point of view, this may be a possibility.

Fundamental Analysis

I always mentioned that the European Central Bank from it’s speeches and reports, often seem to prefer a lower valued euro currency. Being an export driven economy, the ECB deem this as crucial to the economy and price stability. This is something to need to factor into our trading plans.

As per the AUD/USD forecast, I noted that the investors have taken note of the US Federal Reserve chairperson continuation of tapering. The quantitative easing measures is on track to end this year and it was even suggested that interest rate hikes may begin around 6 months after the end of the QE measures. This has brought the interest rates expectation to 1% by 2015. I mentioned the two likely impact. First an increase demand for the US dollar on the prospect of increased interest rates and secondly the apprehension of traders due to tightening monetary conditions.

The Crimea crisis has upped the instability factor for the euro region and this is something that will affect sentiment under streams.

We have economic data due next week including the likes of Germany and the US. Needless to say, proper money management is a must.

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Trade safely.

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