Forex Guides

EUR/USD Forecast 9 March 15

Good day forex traders and readers.

It was an exciting week for EUR/USD trading and I hope you made the best out of it. Despite being on a conservative stance, I managed to make 73 pips! I am a happy forex koala 🙂

In the previous EUR/USD forecast we noted that the currency pair dipped towards the end of the week. I mentioned previously that the tightening range was indicative of a possible breakout out. The EUR/USD targeted the previous low at around 1.115 and should it fail we might be expecting a test of 1.11.


Technical Analysis

Looking at the EUR/USD daily chart above we note that the currency pair did indeed test the support of 1.11 as mentioned. Our predictions have been spot on these weeks and of course I am happy for our readers. Having said so it is my duty to remind all including myself that forex is never 100%. Always be ready for unexpected developments!

The current technical situation suggests a possible bearish drive to parity. EUR/USD at 1.0 is a major psychological support and hence we may observe resistance.

An extended bearish target will be 0.98 although this is very much uncertain for now. Resistance targets will have us aim for 1.12 first.

Fundamental Analysis

For some time now, the fundamentals affecting the currency pair are rather straightforward. As I mentioned often, the very basis of the situation is a versus approach of both sides of the Atlantic.

The latest US Non-Farm Payroll continued the trend of a positive job market development in the US. The unemployment rate is now at 5.5%, the lowest in almost seven years. The brings reality closer to the prospect of the US Federal Reserve rising interest rates to support the advancing US economy and thus adds strengthening pressure to the US dollar.

On the opposite end of the situation is the European Central Bank quantitative easing program. It is preparing to conduct a more than 1 trillion bond buying program beginning on Monday in order to shore up the weakened Euro Zone economy. This is likely to induce a weaken condition for the euro currency.

Having said so, while the current sentiments are pretty obvious, as always nothing in forex is 100% predictable and hence it is not surprising if any short term bullish correction occurs. Do have your proper money management.

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