Good day forex traders.

Welcome to our weekly review of the EUR/USD forecast. Been doing this since 2009 and i am still not tired of it 🙂 You forex koalas’ support keep me going on 🙂 Together we will say NO to margin calls ha!

In the previous EUR/USD forecast we noted continued bearish momentum and the currency pair looked set to test 1.24. On the fundamental side we noted the possibility of a common Euro zone bond but looking at the track record of the Euro Zone, i was not convinced that a solution would be decided so soon.

Technical Analysis

1.24 was taken down. I LOVE IT WHEN MY CHARTS WORK. Thanks for bearing with my shameless self praise 😛

SMA 20 = Bearish

SMA 50 = Bearish

Both SMAs continue to remain bearish. The SMA 20 ( RED ) is having a steep gradient which indicates strong bearish momentum.

I have circled the immediate region as both the 2008 October and 2009 March low lies here. We may see possible price action hesitation here. If this region is cleared, we may be headed to the 2010 June low of 1.18+.

Fundamental Analysis

I was reading a report that states Germany’s Merkel had rejected any debt sharing. Just some time back we noted an indication of a possible compromise. HA! As i said, Euro Zone’s track record for solutions leaves much to be desired .. even when the fire is burning right at the door steps!

In another report, unnamed sources were quoted as saying that Germany is urging Spain to accept an international bailout. If this is indeed true, so it all begins! The further retreat of economic progress since 2008.

Across the Atlantic, the US Non-Farm Payroll came out disappointing. American employers added the least jobs in a year and the unemployment rate climbed from 8.1% to 8.2%. This does not spell well for the US and most investors believe that the Euro Zone crisis had infected the American economy.

The European Central Bank ECB will decide on the minimum bid rate ie interest rate on Wednesday June 6. Pay close attention to this. Some are speculating on a possible rate cut.

Trade Safely.

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EUR/USD Forecast 4 June 12

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