Forex Guides

EUR/USD Forecast 13 August 12


Good day forex traders.

Welcome to another EURUSD forecast by The Forex Koala! Now this currency pair is increasingly tricky to trade. Personally i am not a fan of crazy sudden spikes. But hey the stats do not tell me so. Many koalas here prefer the EUR/USD. Tell me why in the comments below ok?

In the previous EUR/USD forecast we noted that the SMAs are flat. This suggested possible consolidation and right above the currency pair saw the double resistance of 1.24 / 1.245. Fundamentally, the Euro Zone remained weak and was hostage to comments both dovish and hawkish.




Technical Analysis

The double resistance line of 1.24 / 1.245 did function exactly as i mentioned in the previous EUR/USD forecast. I hope everyone benefited from it.

SMA 20 = Flat

SMA 50 = Bearish

From the SMAs, it seems that the medium term bias remains bearish. However the recent consolidation has rendered the SMA 20 flat. Any bullish momentum must face the double resistance region again and any bearish drop must overcome 1.22. There is a possible immediate support right below the price action now and it is a bullish trend line from the recent low near 1.2.


Fundamental Analysis

The Euro Zone continues to face the usual slow downs and debt problems. In fact there are experts predictions again regarding the exit of Greece from the Euro Zone. Honestly it is clear enough that the Euro Zone is in a deep sink hole. The problems will only end when all the member nations can get together and do something together.

Of more crucial attention needed rather is China’s great slowdown. Recent data showed that the export only grew at a merger 1%. I nearly choked when i saw that! Long time readers will know that China is basically the growth driver of the global economy and when China slows, the world economy shivers. Many investors expect the Chinese authorities to hit overdrive on measures to prop up the Chinese economy and hence should nothing concrete happen soon, i expect a nose dive in sentiments.

Time to tighten your money management!

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