Forex Guides

EUR/USD Forecast 11 May 15

Good day forex traders and readers.

Welcome to another of our EUR/USD weekly forecast. It is Mother’s Day so I wish all mummies out there a wonderful day ahead!

In the previous EUR/USD forecast we noted that the currency pair was testing the middle bollinger band which happened to be the 1.12 region too. I felt that some resistance might exist although further bullish momentum would probably seek 1.14.


Technical Analysis

Looking at the EUR/USD weekly chart above we note that the currency pair did push further due to the bullish uplift. It tested the 1.14 region as expected in our forecast and had since eased off to the 1.12 resistance and support region. This was expected too from our previous forecast and hence I love it when my forecast works!! Especially if it is a double 😉 .

1.12 may function as a pivot for now with bullish momentum targeting 1.14 again and bearish recovery seeking out 1.10. Drop down to shorter timeframes on the EUR/USD chart to monitor the price action closely.

Fundamental Analysis

The US Non-Farm Payroll was overall a positive turn out. Unemployment rate is now at 5.4% which is close to the US Federal Reserve definition of full employment. Having said so, the increase in wages was not as high as expected and it remains a disconnect from the hiring positivity.

A number of analysts are saying that the increased volatility is due to the unwinding of the carry trade. As investors shift their exposure between the U.S. and Euro Zone, we are likely to see currency pair movements that do not correlate with any fundamental situation.

In the meanwhile, we need to continue monitoring the Greece crisis as any adverse impact is likely to affect sentiments.

Next week brings us important economic events like the euro meetings early week, German preliminary GDP and U.S. Retail sales. Do have your proper money management.

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