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EUR/USD Forecast 1 Oct 12

 

Good day forex traders.

 

Are you having a wonderful weekend? This week was a sickly one for me and i am still not at my prime. How i wish all illnesses are eradicated. I guess that’s wishful thinking like how i wish forex can make me a millionaire overnight ! HA !

In the previous EUR/USD forecast we noted that we might see 1.28 if bearish pressure continued. The SMA 200 in the area might serve as a support. Sentiments seemed to be swinging low and risk aversion appeared to be encroaching.

 

EUR/USD Forecast

 

Technical Analysis

Looking at the EUR/USD daily chart above we note that the bearish pressure did crush the 1.3 line and sent the currency pair towards the 1.28 support.

SMA 20 ( RED ) = Bullish

SMA 50 ( BLUE ) = Bullish

While both SMAs remain bullish, we should monitor 1.28. The SMA 200 ( BLACK ) usually functions as a support of sorts and if it fails together with 1.28 due to overwhelming bearish pressure, the next bearish target will be 1.26 which will mark a reversal of the previous bullish rally.

 

Fundamental Analysis

As feared in last week’s EUR/USD forecast, the risk aversion increased. After the bullish rally back then, the continued onslaught of dampening economic developments simply brought the EUR/USD down.

Business activity in the US was reported to have unexpectedly shrank in September for the first time in three years. This will probably affect sentiments and is likely a result of major slowdowns across the world. The US Non-Farm Payroll will be released this coming Friday and the unemployment rate is expected to creep back up to 8.2%.

Over in the Euro Zone, Spain’s budget ministry announced that the country plans to borrow 207.2 billion euros next year. This brought about speculations that the country will need to tap from the official assistance program available. While recent announcements of cuts were encouraging, social unrest resulted. It is going to be the end of the year soon and unfortunately the Euro Zone is still very much not out of the woods yet.

 

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