Good day forex traders.
Welcome to our weekly review of the EUR/USD.
In the previous EUR/USD forecast we noted that the currency pair was bullish for the week. It was a classic technical week as the currency pair ranged within the support and resistance levels of the lower bollinger band and 1.16. The US Retail Sales and EU Economic Summit would be events to look out for.
Looking at the EUR/USD weekly chart above we noted that the currency pair was bearish for the week. Once again it was a technical week with the currency pair touching the expected support and resistance levels of the lower bollinger band and 1.16.
As the price action remains between 1.14 and the pivot of 1.16, there is no obvious indication of any momentum. The EUR/USD has been consolidating for almost 6 months. A few readers wrote in and mentioned that there are heavily positioned on long trades above 1.16 and hence having significant losses. We need to be mindful that proper planning is required before trading. The amount of risk you are willing to take should not devastate your account. Any bullish momentum will need to breach 1.16 and rise above into the upper bollinger band. 1.14 remains the strong support that needs to be broken before the EUR/USD can head further south.
The US Retail Sales came in weaker than expected. We need to continue monitoring this as the pace of interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve is determined by the economic situation of the US. The US president Donald Trump does not agree with the current pace and is of the opinion that it is too fast. If the situation escalates, sentiments may be affected.
In was reported that the European Affairs Minister Pierre Moscovici mentioned that the different views on Italy’s budget proposals could be managed and discussed. The aim is to bring about less tension with regards to Italy’s economic challenge. While this may ease off pressure on the euro currency, this may not be the end of it. Italy being the Eurozone’s third-largest economy, will likely impact the region more than previous similar situations such as Greece. European officials are concern with the Italian budget for the net fiscal year. It was reported that credit rating agency Moody’s downgraded Italy’s sovereign debt rating to just one notch above junk status. The reason given was that the Italian government’s budget plans bring upon uncertainty over the sustainability of its national debt.
Brexit negotiation continues as opinions from both camps continue to show little opportunity of a common ground. There is growing concern of the situation where both the Brexit and Italy budget situation affect the euro currency negatively.
Next week brings a number of economic data releases such as the US Core Durable Goods Orders and Advanced GDP. The European Central Bank will also be releasing the Main Refinancing Rate. Be mindful of the ECB Press Conference that happens later as the segment where questions are taken may sometimes introduce volatility. If you are subscribed to our membership service, you can find these information on the economic calendar. If you are not, you can do so now and secure the super low launch promo rates before they are gone.