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EUR/USD Update 2 Mar 21

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Hi everyone.

It is the new forex trading week, and what have you harvested so far? I sure hope it’s plenty of pips!

EURUSD Daily Chart

Technical Analysis

In the EUR/USD daily chart above, we see the currency pair launched its assault on the 1.2 support.

It has since eased back as the lower bollinger band and 1.2 support will probably require a sizable downside push to breach.

The immediate support and resistance at the moment will be the lower and middle bollinger band.

Sentiment Analysis

SP500 Daily Chart

Looking at the S&P 500 daily chart above, we see a bounce up yesterday. It was over 2%.

The USA ISM Manufacturing PMI turned out to be better than expected, clocking 60.8 instead of 58.7. A Purchasing Managers’ Index is a survey of purchasing managers and is important as the sentiment of purchasing managers is a leading indicator of economic health. A healthy sentiment suggests that an economy is moving along well, while a cautious sentiment may see fewer business activities because of prudence.

This bullish report increased the positive sentiment towards the US economy.

The current downside pressure on the euro probably stems from the possibility of further quantitative easing. Any increase in the supply of the currency will exert downside pressure on its value. This is something investors and analysts are sensitive to.

The USA ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is up next. Employment is a fundamental component of the economy as it leads to consumer spending and hence retail sales. The ADP’s statistics are based on the payroll data of approximately 400,000 U.S. business clients. Therefore, it is viewed by many as a possible early indication of the US Non-Farm Payroll result.

Ensure you monitor closely and have your proper money management in place as the report may cause volatility.

The Week Ahead

There are important economic events this week. I highly encourage you to read through and learn about these events. This helps improve your understanding of the market sentiment.

USA ISM Services PMI
A Purchasing Managers’ Index is a survey of purchasing managers and is important as the sentiment of purchasing managers is a leading indicator of economic health. A healthy sentiment suggests that an economy is moving along well, while a cautious sentiment may see fewer business activities because of prudence.

USA Fed Chair Powell Speech
Speeches may reveal new insights into economic policies or contain a question and answer segment that at times go into unscripted topics resulting in unexpected developments and volatility.

USA Crude Oil Inventories
This gives insight into the supply and demand of oil, which may tell us more about the economy’s health. An expanding economy typically uses more oil, while a contracting one may result in significant excess.

USA Average Hourly Earnings
Consumer earnings is important due to it’s upstream impact. With more earnings comes possible increased consumer spending. This translates to revenues, leading to employment and business expansion.

USA Non-Farm Employment Change
USA Unemployment Rate
Employment is a fundamental component of the economy as it leads to consumer spending and hence retail sales. A low unemployment rate is an indicator of a healthy functioning economy.
The US Non-Farm Payroll is basically data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on a monthly basis that represents the total number of employed US workers, excluding the following employees:

– general government employees
– private household employees
– employees of nonprofit organizations which provide assistance to individuals
– farm employees

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