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EUR/USD Forecast Update 21 Nov 19

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The EUR/USD is slightly bullish as of now.

Technical Analysis

On the 15 minutes chart, the EUR/USD is dipping and may encounter support at the middle bollinger band.

On the hourly chart, the EUR/USD is dipping and there is some room for manoeuvring before it faces the middle bollinger band. Bands from longer time frames are usually more influential.

On the 4 hourly chart, we see a similar support at the middle bollinger band. Towards the upside, we see the upper bollinger band function as an immediate resistance.

Lastly looking at the daily chart, we see the EUR/USD testing the middle bollinger band. This is expected as the charts above are all showing a bearish push which translate to this current test on the daily time frame.

If the EUR/USD succeeds, we may see a push for 1.11 followed by the extended resistance at the upper bollinger band. Bearish return will likely see the currency pair push hard to reach 1.1 and even beyond by the end of the week.

Fundamental and Sentimental Considerations

As the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts is due to be released soon, the current price action is likely to be limited as traders await for guidance. Monetary policy meeting minutes are given much attention by analysts and investors as it has an impact on the economy. The minutes will be analysed thoroughly for insights on the economic policy ahead. Significant volatility may be generated if there are unexpected revelations.

The US China trade negotiations have so far failed to impress for the week. The is complicated further by the passing of the Hong Kong human rights and democracy act. The final hurdle of this act will be the signing into law by President Trump himself. China has already expressed dissatisfaction and it is important that we monitor closely for any development. A deterioration in relationship between the US and China may affect the trade negotiations and send the market into risk aversion.

Up Ahead

Here are a number of the significant economic events that are expected.

USA Building Permits
The construction of a building generates many economic activities. Jobs will be created for construction workers, the various sub contractors and services associated with new buildings such as power, water, furniture and so on.

USA Crude Oil Inventories
Movement of oil supply may bring insights to the level of general economic activities. For example, an increasing supply may suggest excessive production or diminishing demand. A reducing supply on the other hand may suggest an economic pick up.

USA Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
This survey of manufacturers is important as the sentiment of businesses is a leading indicator of economic health. A healthy sentiment suggests that an economy is moving along well and with the activities of the businesses, downstream benefits will happen such as employment and investment.

EUR French Flash Services PMI
EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI
EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI
EUR German Flash Services PMI
EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI
EUR Flash Services PMI
USA Flash Manufacturing PMI

Purchasing Managers’ Index is a survey of purchasing managers and is important as the sentiment of purchasing managers is a leading indicator of economic health. A healthy sentiment suggests that an economy is moving along well while a cautious sentiment may see less business activities due to prudence.

Following an economic calendar is vital so that your forex trading plan factors in the events. Members can log in to their dashboard for an economic calendar. The latest Major Currency Pairs, USD Index, Gold, Crude Oil and Price Action Bias Signals analysis are available too.

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Traders should always practice proper money management and seek to understand the underlying tones for the market.

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