Elmar EUR/USD Trading Plan November 18




Hello dear friends.

I’m feeling good and I hope everyone is feeling good so far. These days, the market is a little boring with no significant moves but yet big volatilities due to high risk news being released.

For this week we have big and important news to be released and it will be wise to wait for the market traders to digest it before we trade. From Tuesday to Friday we have German ZEW Economic Sentiment, Retail Sales, Home Sales, Home Sales and etc… So friends, big volatility and caution are expected.

According to our dear friend The Forex Koala, the EUR/USD reaches now an important key resistance around 1.3525-50 as highlighted on his EUR/USD Forecast for this week. I agree with him entirely. My 21 Ema is right above and the price is touching it, matching The Forex Koala’s BB Middle Band where we shall see some resistance. This area will be my key resistance and strong decision point to my trades on the EUR/USD this week. If we see a close above 1.3550, probably we can see the currency pair rising again to a retest of 1.3810 or even 1.3920 like you can see the weekly chart matching the bearish long term trading line.

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OK, Let’s Draw our lines and plan our trade:

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Bullish Trade: For the upside in a bullish trade, I expect to see a daily close above the 21Ema. Than look for candlestick patterns like you can see in “Figure A” in the chart attached. Another perfect entry point that you can see happened from 11 September to 17 September in “Figure B”. Note the big shadows left behind for the candles rejecting lower prices, closing above 21Ema than a couple days ahead, a big move to upside happens. That is the king of signal you must look for. The Bullish targets may be a retest of 1.3820 and even 1.3900.

Bearish Trade: To the down side, we need to see the failure to conquer the 1.3525-50 area. I do prefer a close below 1.3500. Look for candlesticks with big shadows rejecting higher prices and closing below 1.3500. The bearish target from here is around 1.3300.

Remember folks, big moves takes time to develop! You will have to wait patiently, even days. However this is worthy.

Have a nice week folks and good trades to you.

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