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AUD/USD Weekly Forecast 8 Feb 16

Good day readers.

How are you doing? I hope you made some pips from this koala currency pair.

In the previous AUD/USD forecast we noted that the currency pair was recovering and it tried to test the middle bollinger band. I would be mindful of the lower and middle bollinger bands as they might serve as immediate support and resistance levels.

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Technical Analysis

Looking at the AUD/USD weekly chart above we note that the currency pair tested the middle bollinger band but failed to hold above it. The candle is a doji for this week.

The doji suggested indecisiveness or apprehension as the market traders even out on both sides of the bid. The lower bollinger band remains as the immediate support with an extended push likely to target the previous low of 0.6820.

Any bullish return will as usual need to breach the middle bollinger band first.


Fundamental Analysis

The Australian retail sales came out worst than expected. I mentioned before that consumer sales is an important indicator of the economy. This disappointing release likely dampened sentiments. A number of investors were even speculating that this may push the Reserve Bank of Australia down the path of an interest cut.

The current slow down condition of China is adding to the drag on the Australian economy. This is inevitable as China is the largest trading partner of Australia.

In the US, the US Non-Farm Payroll added less job than expected. Having said so, it remained positive and hence gave the AUD/USD little impact versus the poor Australian Retail Sales.

Next week continues the line up of important economic events. Both the US Federal Reserve and Reserve Bank of Australia tops are scheduled to speak. We also have the US unemployment claims, retail sales at the end of the week and more.

Trade safely.

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