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AUD/USD Weekly Forecast 4 Jan 16

Good day readers.

Happy new year and I hope you made money trading forex in 2015.

In the previous AUD/USD forecast we noted that the currency pair was bullish for the week. It was testing the middle bollinger band again. Our bollinger bands continued to provide indications of possible price action. Should the AUD/USD clear the middle bollinger band, the bullish momentum might target 0.74. Any further push would need to see the upper bollinger band breached first

A return of bearish pressure might see support at 0.7120, followed by the lower bollinger band.

Regardless it was important to note that the AUD/USD had been range bounded for sometime now.

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Technical Analysis

Looking at the AUD/USD weekly chart above we note that the currency pair was a doji. This is likely due to the low market activity. It continues to respect the support of the middle bollinger band.

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While the currency pair has been bullish for sometime now, it is noticeable that the upper limit of the current channel lies right above. In order for the bullish momentum to gain traction, 0.7330 has to be breached decisively. An extended bullish target will be 0.7450.

A dip below the middle bollinger band will open up the bearish target of 0.7120.



Fundamental Analysis

While the economic release schedule was light for the week, one release did stand out. The US unemployment claims was higher than expected. With the recent US interest rate increase, many analysts are monitoring developments to see if the increase is going to continue.

As far as the Australian economy is concerned, it will likely continue to be challenged in the near future. Commodities prices remain dampened and China economy activity is off it’s peak.

Next week will see important economic releases such as the Australian Retail Sales and US FOMC meeting minutes.

The week ahead will likely see continued low volume market condition.

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