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AUD/USD Weekly Forecast 18 Feb 13

Good day forex traders and koalas.

In the previous AUD/USD forecast we noted that the bearish momentum has been around for sometime now. With the failure of 1.03660 , the next bearish target and immediate support will be 1.0230. The Reserve Bank of Australia RBA was reported to have lowered the growth forecast of the Australian economy. We might see the dip play out before recovery.


Technical Analysis

Looking at the AUD/USD daily chart above we note that the 1.0230 target was hit! I love it when my targets work 🙂 ok I am going to keep my shameless self praise short. Now what do we have here? We do see a retracement in action and without doubt if bearish momentum continue, the 1.0230 region will probably be crucial. A point to note is the extreme bearish action on the last day of the week. Should 1.0230 fail, the next bearish target will probably be 1.0150.

Fundamental Analysis

We seem to be entering a flat period of economic progress for now. The recent comments from the RBA seem to be setting the expectations for slower growth. As I mentioned in the last review, we may see a dip play out first before continued recovery. If we are indeed flattening now due to a bottoming, things may get better sooner. While the economic data schedule was light this week, the upcoming week will see the monetary policy meeting minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia RBA. It will be crucial to monitor if a dovish or hawkish stance will be taken.

Trade safely.

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