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AUD/USD Weekly Forecast 14 Dec 15

Good day readers.

How was your week? As we approach the end of the year, I hope everyone will be green for the year.

In the previous AUD/USD forecast we noted that the currency pair was bullish for the week. It had since breached the middle bollinger band. Bollinger bands could be a good indicator of possible support and resistance regions. From a technical point of view, the middle bollinger band might serve as an immediate support for now. Should the bullish momentum continued, 0.75 might be tested.

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Technical Analysis

Looking at the AUD/USD weekly chart above we note that the currency pair turned bearish for the week. It punched right through the middle bollinger band.
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From a technical point of view, the middle bollinger band may serve as a resistance next week. Having said so, another consideration could be that the price action may pivot around the region instead. In the current low volume market condition, anything is possible. Close monitoring on shorter time frames is recommended.

Both upper and lower bollinger bands are considered to be extended bullish and bearish targets for now.



Fundamental Analysis

As the expected US Federal Reserve interest rate hike approaches, it is reported that a number of traders are shifting their positions in anticipation of the narrowing of the interest rate differential. As the interest premium over the USD drops for the Aussie dollar, investors may find less appeal holding this riskier asset.

With oil dropping below the $40 mark, the depressed price of commodities will likely continue to dampen the outlook of the Aussie dollar. We need to keep in mind that Australia is a commodity based economy.

Next week brings the Australian Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook and the highly anticipated US interest rate hike. Extreme caution is advised.

Trade safely.

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