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AUD/USD Forex Forecast Weekly Review 7 Apr 12

Good day forex traders.

Welcome to another forex forecast review of the AUD/USD. This currency pair in comparison with the EUR/USD is much less popular although the AUD/USD presents a good opportunity for diversification.

In the previous review we noted that both the SMA 20 and SMA 50 were bearish and this might mean further bearish pressure. An extended bearish target would be 1.0140.

Technical Analysis

Looking at the chart above, we noted that the AUD/USD went below the 1.0330 line due to continued bearish pressure. I LOVE IT WHEN MY CHARTS WORK 🙂

SMA 20 = bearish
SMA 50 = bearish

A bearish channel seems to have developed between the red line i drew and the SMA 20. While there is a possibility for an attempt to test the 1.0140 line, the currency pair seems to be testing the support turned resistance 1.0330. The SMA 200 is in the region too.

Fundamental Analysis

Earlier this week, the Reserve Bank of Australia RBA gave hints to a willingness to cut interest rates to stimulate the economy. We all know that one of the main attraction of the AUD is it’s high interest rate and hence any possibility of a rate cut is enough to send the koalas packing bag home for a good long sleep. An unexpected trade deficit of A$ 480 million was posted too. Perhaps a result of the recent cooling of China and the global economy woes streaming from Europe.

The US Non-Farm Payroll gave rise to two possibilities. While the job growth was weaker than expected, the unemployment rate did drop to 8.2%. 

Patience is key to success in forex. Perhaps refraining from risky trades early week may give some time for us to observe the real impact of the US NFP on the foreign currency exchange markets.

Trade Safely.

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