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AUD/USD Forex Forecast Review 25 Feb 12

Good day forex traders.

Welcome to another weekly forex forecast review of the AUD/USD. Previously we noted that the currency pair remained below 1.0750, a region of strong support and resistance. Fundamentally the resilient Australian economy continued to resist the drag of the Greece budget deficit crisis.

Technical Analysis

While a bullish candle appeared at the start of the trading week, it was probably due to the changed expectations of the market over the weekend as shown in the forex gap. The AUD/USD quickly fell right back below the 1.0750 region and ended beneath it. The currency pair made a new low this week suggesting continued bearish pressure.

Fundamental Analysis

Although Greece’s problem is apparently stable for the moment due to the agreement of a 130 billion euro aid package, there are other countries in the Euro Zone which face challenges too. This includes Spain and Italy. The Australian economy continues to shine as seen in it’s S&P/AXS 200 index which is on a bullish momentum. It is now testing the 4300 resistance region.

The Reserve Bank of Australia unexpectedly kept the interest rate unchanged at 4.25%. Having said so no sharp demand for the Australian dollar was seen as the RBA governor gave a rather neutral outlook as he believed that the policy is at a right configuration. This probably dampened the possibility of any interest rate hike in the near term.

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