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AUD/USD forex forecast review 23 April 12

Good day forex traders.

Welcome to another forex forecast review of the AUD/USD. This currency pair in comparison with the EUR/USD is much less popular although the AUD/USD presents a good opportunity for diversification. 

In the previous review we noted that fundamentals might prove uncertain for the Australian economy. Increasing speculations of an interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia RBA continued to surface and this probably would result in a tight condition for currency movement.


Technical Analysis

As mentioned, indeed the 1.0430 remained a strong resistance and the AUD/USD did not manage to test it again after easing off.

SMA 20 = flat
SMA 50 = flat

Both SMAs are flat now and this suggests high uncertainty and tight trading range. This is probably in anticipation of any interest rate action by the Reserve Bank of Australia RBA. 1.0330 is functioning as a strong support.


Fundamental Analysis

Australian economic dynamics continued to be highly affected by global economic themes. As Australia is an export driven economy, this is inevitable. Having said so, the S&P / AXS 200 has been managing a very gentle ascent since the start of the year and this suggests a robust fundamental economy of Australia.

As we approach the new month with a new opportunity of a rate cut if ever, i personally expect the AUD/USD trading range to remain tight unless any adverse development comes along.

Trade Safely.

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