Good day forex traders and koalas.

Welcome to our weekly AUD/USD forecast. I hope you had a good week of trading. Mine was with a slight loss due to the crazy dip midweek over at the EUR/USD. No worries though i am fine due to proper money management 🙂

The AUD/USD had been ranging for sometime now and this is expected due to the fundamental currents affecting it.

Technical Analysis

Looking at the AUD/USD daily chart above, we note the recent ranging nature of the currency pair. However if we were to impose on the chart trend lines from previous months, we note a triangle of sorts forming. This may result in a breakout. Bullish extended target may be the 1.056 region while any bearish break down may see the parity 1 which was last tested June. In the meanwhile, 1.0330 is a pivot of sorts.

Fundamental Analysis

The fundamental situation is a complicated one. Australia compared to most developed nations enjoy a relative healthy economy. Unemployment rate is manageable for now and the interest rate of the Aussie dollar remains one of the highest among other comparable countries. The complication comes from the drag effect of the global economy. The Euro Zone budget deficit crisis has far reaching effects and China, it’s largest trading partner is experiencing a slow down. As the Australian economy is an export driven one, this definitely further dampens outlook.

Nonetheless, recent affirmation by Fitch Ratings on Australia’s AAA rating shows the resilience of the Aussie economy.

Spain’s bonds situation is deteriorating due to the delay of bailout. This will further increase risk aversion. On the other hand, US is reporting positive developments. For China, Chinese industrial companies’ profits were reported to have risen in September for the first time in half a year. A Chinese Ministry of Finance researcher was reported mentioning that the Chinese economy will probably rebound in the fourth quarter.

Trade Safely.

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AUD/USD Forecast 29 Oct 12

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