Forex Guides

AUD/USD Forecast 16 Jun

Good day forex traders and readers.

Welcome to our weekly AUD/USD forecast. An often overlooked currency pair, this remains one of my favorite due to it’s less volatile nature.

In the previous AUD/USD forecast we noted that the currency pair was bullish for the week. It did face supportive influence at the middle bollinger band as expected. The 0.94 region was likely to remain as an immediate resistance for the currency pair and the middle bollinger band as an immediate support.


Technical Analysis

Looking at the AUD/USD weekly chart above we note that the currency pair was bullish for the week again. As predicted in last week’s forecast, 0.94 resisted the prevailing bullish pressure and the AUD/USD ended just below it.

The upcoming week would be crucial for the currency pair. Should the bullish pressure overcome the strong resistance of 0.94, we may see an extended bullish target of 0.9740.

Should bearish momentum return, the middle bollinger band which currently lies at the region of 0.9230 will likely offer up some support.

Fundamental Analysis

The Australian employment data came with a slight loss of job. Having said so the statistical unemployment rate dipped to 5.8% and probably mitigated much negative sentiment. Regardless, the fact remains that jobs were lost and hence caution is advised on adopting an overly positive approach.

As I mentioned often, we must always consider the stance of the Reserve Bank of Australia with regards to the Australian currency. A high value may hurt exports and hence with the current high, we may see some dovish indications from the RBA.

Early next week brings the RBA monetary policy meeting minutes. Do be careful of any unexpected developments.

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