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AUD/USD Forecast 13 August 12


Good day forex traders and koalas!


Welcome to another AUD/USD forecast by The Forex Koala ! I love this currency pair alot but from my website statistics, it seems like not many do. Hmmmm ?

In the previous AUD/USD forecast we noted that the conditions are bullish but the resistance in the region is strong. Fundamentally we continue to see the same weakness in the US job market and Euro Zone budget deficit crisis. While China remains slow, efforts by the Central Bank to spur growth is encouraging.


AUD/USD Daily Chart

Solution : ProRealTime


Technical Analysis

Looking at the AUD/USD chart above we note that the currency pair remains capped by the 1.0560 region. As mentioned in my previous forecast, this is a strong resistance region.

A bullish trend line has been drawn above and this would serve as a support for the current momentum. As per mentioned, we need 1.0560 to be taken down first before we can consider the extended target of 1.0750.


Fundamental Analysis

On top of the usual slow down, problems, unemployment of the US and Euro Zone, an area of more concern would be the China economic health. This week saw weak data printed. China’s export growth slowed to almost 0% and trade surplus fell to only 25.1 billion. Australia depends on China being it’s main export market and such show down usually send shivers down the Australian economy. Many investors believe that China will take an aggressive approach to this slow down and hence be careful of any lapse in expectations as this will probably cause a sell off.

Next week is apparently light on China news but be prepared in case of any unexpected announcements.


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