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AUD/USD EUR/USD Forecast May 12



Good day forex traders and readers.

Welcome to the weekly forex forecast on the AUD/USD and EUR/USD. I hope you had a great week of trading!

In the previous AUD/USD forecast we noted that the currency pair ended up pretty much the same level as the previous week. The candle pattern was a doji and it suggested uncertainty. It remained critical to observe if the AUD/USD would break away from the influential support and resistance region of 0.9280. Bearish targets remained at 0.9150 and 0.9050. Distinctive bullish momentum might see a bullish target of 0.9450 followed by 0.96.

In the previous EUR/USD forecast we noted that the currency pair was bullish for the week. Having said so the price action was not a substantial one. The currency pair remained near the 1.385 region. A continuation of bullish momentum would likely see 1.4 as a possible target. Be careful as it was possible that resistance would increase as the EUR/USD approached 1.4. A bearish correction would bring us a possible bearish target of 1.37 followed by 1.35.

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Technical Analysis

Looking at the AUD/USD weekly chart above we note that the currency pair was bullish for the week.

As the currency pair approaches the resistance region of 0.94 – 0.9450, we need to monitor for any bearish pressure. Should the resistance fail, we may see 0.96 next.

A bearish correction will likely push the AUD/USD back towards 0.9280.

20140511-230027.jpg


Technical Analysis

Looking at the EUR/USD weekly chart above we note that the currency pair suffered a bearish down push for the week. As mentioned previously, any attempts to reach 1.4 might be repelled with a strong rejection and this seems to be the case.

Any bullish attempt to regain footing may need to overcome 1.3850 and then 1.4.

Should the bearish momentum pick up, we may see 1.37 and 1.35. Having said so, the weekly middle bollinger band may act as an support and hence close monitoring is crucial.



Fundamental Analysis

Australia reported better than expected employment and this probably brought upon a wave of positive sentiments. Employment is often seen as a gauge for an economy’s health and hence the increased take up for the Aussie dollar.

Over in the euro zone, a major factor to the sharp decline of the euro currency is likely the indication by the European Central Bank president that an interest rate cut or easing stimulus is likely in June. He mentioned that the council is ready to act the next time. Investors are definitely apprehensive of a weakening of the currency and hence the sell off. In view of this, we may see the euro struggling to get a stronger bid until the next meeting.

A number of important economic releases like the Australian Annual Budget, German ZEW Economic Sentiment and the US Retail Sales are due next week. Proper money management is a critical.

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