AUD/USD Weekly Forecast 3 Dec 18


Good day forex traders.

Welcome to our weekly review of the AUD/USD. How was the week? Hope your forex trades unfolded as planned.

In the previous AUD/USD forecast we noted that the currency pair was bearish for the week. It could not hold on to the bullish gains and headed straight for 0.72. It then went on to test the resistance turned support.

Looking at the AUD/USD weekly chart above we noted that the currency pair is bullish for the week. We are now at levels last seen a fortnight ago.

From a technical point of view, the middle bollinger band remains under pressure. Should the AUD/USD not fall back below the middle bollinger band soon, we may be looking at a possible bullish scenario.

US Feds Doves

We reported on a dovish comment made by the US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell. He mentioned that the current interest rates are just below neutral. This comes as a surprise because apparently he had only just mentioned in October that the monetary stance is a long way from neutral. This change of the US Federal Reserve’s outlook had happened fast. Reacting to the possibility of a reduction or halt in the pace of interest rate hikes, many investors dumped US dollars in favour of assets with higher yields.

All Systems Go?

A number of analysts are of the opinion that the Aussie dollar remains heavily burdened by the ongoing trade war of the US and China. As a crucial trading partner of Australia, any significant development pertaining to China will often exert pressure on the Australian dollar. President Trump is scheduled to meet President Xi for dinner over the weekend at the G20 meetings and many are hoping for a positive trade outcome.

The upcoming week is an eventful one. Early week we have the Reserve Bank of Australia rate release which offers an insight to monetary policy. The Australian gross domestic product and retail sales statistics will be released too. Members can log in to the dashboard for the figures post release.

Across the Atlantic, US Federal Reserve chair Powell is scheduled to speak on at least 2 occasions. The US Non-Farm Payroll is due towards the end of the week.

OPEC meetings are also scheduled for the week. Oil prices and developments may exert pressure on the AUD/USD as the Australian economy is very much driven by commodities.

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