Author Topic: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart: USD/JPY  (Read 6183 times)

Offline Andrea ForexMart

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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: November 22, 2016
« Reply #30 on: November 22, 2016, 07:04:57 PM »


   The Japanese yen exhibited significant losses during Monday’s session following the release of a negative-leaning Merchandise Trade Balance data. Meanwhile, the USD has been subject to buying interests due to increasing expectations of an eventual Fed rate hike in December.


   Although the USD/JPY pair was unable to increase further and reverted immediately after testing the 111.00 trading range, the currency pair was able to remain in the positive territory during the last trading session. As of now, the pair’s value is still in an upward direction and has somewhat shifted from its previous limit. The pair’s price went slightly higher in the USD/JPY’s 4-hour chart. Resistance levels for the currency pair can be found at 111.00 points, while support levels are expected to be at 110.00 points.


   The MACD indicator for USD/JPY dropped, indicating a decrease in buyer positions. The MACD also exhibited a bearish stance for its hourly chart, while the RSI indicator for the pair was able to remain within its overbought readings. If the USD/JPY pair fails to go beyond 111.00, then this could cause the USD to drop in value and plummet to 110.00 points. If the pair breaches the 110.00 range, then this could lead to further decreases up to 109.00 points.

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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: November 22, 2016
« Reply #30 on: November 22, 2016, 07:04:57 PM »

Offline Andrea ForexMart

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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: November 23, 2016
« Reply #31 on: November 24, 2016, 05:03:44 PM »


   The Japanese yen increased in value following the news release regarding the earthquake that hit the country, but quickly retreated after the Bank of Japan released a statement saying that the Japanese economy is still well on its way to improvement. The JPY remained within a tight trading range around multi-month highs during Tuesday’s trading session, with the pricing of the USD/JPY pair staying within the 110.00-110.50 region for the rest of the day. The currency pair was able to trade above its moving averages in its 4-hour chart, with the moving averages sustaining their bullish trend.


   Resistance levels for the USD/JPY pair are expected to be at 112.00 points, while support levels for the pair are expected to come in at the 111.00 trading range. The MACD indicators for the currency pair weakened, indicating a drop in buyer positions. Meanwhile, its RSI indicators remained within the overbought territory. If the USD/JPY pair manages to sustain its bullishness, then the next short-term aim for the pair is located at 112.00 points. If the USD/JPY pair manages  to go beyond this particular level, then the currency pair is expected to extend its gains towards the 113.00 trading range.

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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: November 28, 2016
« Reply #32 on: November 28, 2016, 06:39:54 PM »


   The USD has just clinched its highest trading range for eight straight months against the JPY after the US bond yields continued to surge during the Asian trading session after the US market holiday. The ascending trend for the currency pair continued, with the price of the pair extending beyond its upper limit at 114.00 points before inching lower. The downward direction of the pair caused it to lose momentum at the 113.00 trading range during the start of the London session and remained until the end of the session. The pair’s 1-hour chart encountered its barrier at the 50 EMA, lending a strong support for the currency pair.


   The moving averages for the currency pair maintained its bullish stance within its set timeframe. The pair’s resistance levels are expected to be at 114.00, while its support levels are expected to be at 113.00. The MACD indicators for the currency pair weakened, indicating a decrease in buyer positions. Meanwhile, its RSI indicators have already left the overbought range.


   The USD/JPY is expected to go beyond the upward channel if the pair would be able to go lower than 112.00. In order to diminish the effect of the present upward pressure, sellers will have to induce the pricing of the pair to go lower than 111.00. Or else a move towards 113.00 will cause a positive reaction and could trigger the pair to reach the 114.00 trading region.

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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: November 29, 2016
« Reply #33 on: November 30, 2016, 11:36:02 AM »


   The USD further dropped in relation to the JPY due to ambiguities surrounding oncoming economic events such as the release of the Non-farm Payrolls data and the minutes of the OPEC meeting, prompting a lot of investors to clamp down on their deals. The pricing of the USD/JPY pair sustained its upward direction during Monday’s trading session but remained within its lower levels and made small reversions during the Tokyo session. However, as the European session opened, the currency pair started speeding up its increase and ultimately reverted back to 113.00 just before the start of the New York session.


   The hourly chart of the USD/JPY pair showed that its pricing was able to go beyond the 100 EMA during the middle of the London session and tested the 50 EMA towards the closing of the London session. The currency pair’s 200 and 100 EMAs went up further while the 50 EMA slowly went towards the neutral territory in the same chart. The resistance levels for the USD/JPY is expected to be at 113.00, while its support levels are expected to be at 112.00.


   The MACD indicators for the currency pair inched higher, indicating an added strength in buyer positions. Its RSI indicators also moved upwards. For this week, the USD/JPY is expected to make a comeback, with the first bull target slated to be at 113.00 points. If the pair manages to reach this level, then the pair could possibly extend its gains toward 114.00 points.

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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: December 13, 2016
« Reply #34 on: December 14, 2016, 02:06:25 PM »


   The Japanese yen experienced downward pressure during Monday’s session due to the OPEC production deal as well as the positive market sentiment with regards to the Fed rate hike scheduled this December. Japan had recently released its Machinery Order and turned out to be positive, but even this particular economic data’s effect paled in comparison to the aforementioned events which had a much larger impact on the safe haven currency.


   The price of the USD/JPY pair reverted from 116.00 points and went back to the 115.00 trading range. As seen in the currency pair’s 4-hour chart, the price of the USD/JPY stayed just above its moving averages and continued to inch higher. Resistance levels for the USD/JPY pair is seen to be at 116.00, while support levels are expected to come in at 115.00 points.


   The MACD indicators for the currency pair increased, showing a surge in buyer strength. Meanwhile, its RSI indicators were able to remain within the overvalued regions. The market is now monitoring the pair’s current position at 116.00, and if the USD/JPY manages to break through this region, then the pair could possibly hit the 117.00 trading region.

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USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: December 20, 2016
« Reply #35 on: December 20, 2016, 04:41:16 PM »

   The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its previous monetary policies and give more positive economic expectations, thereby cementing speculations that the central bank could possibly induce an interest rate increase instead of a rate cutback. Because of the lack of policy adjustments, USD/JPY traders will now be shifting their focus on BoJ’s Kuroda’s statement regarding the increase in Japanese yields. There are speculations that Kuroda could either talk about economic expectations for 2017 or the risks involved with a sudden surge in bond yields. However, it is more definite that Kuroda will be treading carefully with regards to increasing market expectations of an interest rate hike.

   The Bank of Japan could possibly sustain its present pledge-to-guide short term rates at -0.1% and 10-year Japanese Government bond yields at around 0% in spite of a somewhat positive sentiment for the Japanese economy. However, traders are advised to be careful with regards to holding Japanese bond yields at 0%, since long-term interest rates have now increased due to speculations of a steadier US rate hikes and an inflation surge under the Trump administration. The Bank of Japan is now under pressure due to calls for the central bank to add
up its 10-year yields target.

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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: December 21, 2016
« Reply #36 on: December 23, 2016, 03:29:03 PM »

   The JPY experienced a drop in value following the latest economic news release from Japan, where the Bank of Japan decided to maintain its current monetary policies until such time that inflation rates go beyond 2%. The Japanese economy is also reportedly continuing its recent recovery. The USD/JPY pair rallied during Tuesday’s trading session following this move from the BoJ, and buyers were able to take control of the pair and sent the USD/JPY soaring well beyond its daily highs. The USD went up from 117.00 to 118.00 in the London trading session, and was able to test the 118.00 region prior to the opening of the North American session. The value of the USD/JPY reverted from the 100 EMA in the pair’s hourly chart. Meanwhile, the USD went beyond the 50 EMA while on its way towards the upper region of the chart and veered away from its moving averages. Resistance levels for the currency pair is expected to come in at 118.00 points, while support levels are expected to be at 117.00 points.

   The MACD levels for the currency pair stayed within its previous level, indicating the increase in buyer strength. The RSI indicators for the currency pair went upwards as well. If buyers are able to maintain its control over the USD/JPY pair, then the price of the value could possibly move up further to 119.00 points.

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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: January 4, 2017
« Reply #37 on: January 05, 2017, 11:31:43 AM »

The USD/JPY pair broke its psychological level yesterday but rebounded higher than the turnaround level. A semi exhaustive candle was seen to form that could further push upwards the long-term levels with chances for pullback. The Support level was posited at 115 area with the next target at 120 level. It seems the market could reach this mark anytime soon.
The non-farm payroll data is anticipated to come out which will have a big impact to the pair that could subdue the market.

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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: January 16, 2017
« Reply #38 on: January 16, 2017, 05:14:05 PM »

   The USD has attempted to regain its losses against the Japanese yen during the previous trading session as the market went unaffected by a slew of highly positive economic data from China, namely Exports and Imports data, as well as the Chinese Trade Balance data. During the Tokyo trading session last Friday, the USD was able to regain its upward balance following its recent decline, while buyer strength manifested positive bid stances which caused the pair to exceed 115.00 points prior to the opening of the North American session. But this upward movement eventually lost its momentum which then caused the USD/JPY pair to drop back to lower than 115.00 points. Traders also induced the currency pair to drop further to 114.00 points during the middle of the New York trading session. The USD/JPY pair was able to test the 50 EMA in the hourly chart. Resistance levels for the USD/JPY is situated at 115.00, while support levels are expected to be at 114.00 points.

   For the next trading session, the USD/JPY pair could possibly decrease further in value and could hit 114.00 up to 113.00 points unless buyer strength could help the currency pair to consolidate just above 116.00 points.

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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: January 18. 2017
« Reply #39 on: January 19, 2017, 04:44:36 PM »

   The JPY increased significantly in value against the USD after the majority of investors fled the USD after Donald Trump expressed his concerns that the US dollar might be becoming too strong for the US economy to handle. The US 10-year Treasury Yields plummeted to 2.307% during the early hours of yesterday’s trading session, possibly its lowest intraday levels since November 2016. This has then lended support for the bears of the USD/JPY pair after the currency pair traded at the lower regions of 112.67 points before making a slight recovery.

However, there came a slew of negative US data, such as the New York Empire State Manufacturing Index, which dropped to 6.5% from its previous reading of 9.0%. This reading is indicative of slower business growth in the region for this month. Since the USD/JPY was able to extend over 114.00 points, the currency pair is more than ready to extend sideways. The pair’s 4-hour chart shows that its momentum indicator retains its bearish stance and is still within the negative side of the chart, while RSI indicators for the currency pair are pointing to the downside. The 100 SMA for the USD/JPY pair has also lowered significantly.

   Support levels for the USD/JPY are expected to manifest at the 112.65 points, while resistance levels could possibly appear once the pair hits 113.35 points.

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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: January 23, 2017
« Reply #40 on: January 24, 2017, 02:02:11 PM »

Subsequent to the speech made by Janet Yellen, the US dollar abated. But the greens reversed few of its losses on Friday on the back of the inauguration speech of Donald Trump.
The greenbacks attempted to reach 115.00 barrier amid Asian hours. The bulls pushed the level prior to the onset of the EU trading. The price was unable to maintain its upward impetus and turn back through 115.00 eventually.

The 4-hour chart indicates that the price rebounded to the 50-EMA during the Asian session and it further moved between the 50 and 100-EMAs in the Euro hours. The 100 and 50-EMAs employ a downward trend while 200-EMA was confined in the flat lining. Resistance touched the 116.00 level, support hit 115.00 area.

The MACD histogram arrived in the positive zone and if it hovered on its position, the buyers will strengthened. RSI stayed around the overvalued territory.

The general outlook for the pair remained to be bullish as it rack up through the resistance region 116.00.

The USD/JPY could fail and return to the downside in case the 115.00 handle were unable to support the bullish investors.

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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: May 5, 2017
« Reply #41 on: May 05, 2017, 05:19:55 PM »

The U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen had a high volatility during the Thursday session. The market tried to break higher than the 113 level but failed that makes it much safer to be patient and wait on the sidelines until the jobs data has been released. Moreover, the bullish tone will persist in the long term.

There is a significant support found close to 112.50 level which may be better to move upward although this will be unexpected. The 112 region will be massively supportive but it still might shift when the jobs data results is negative. The labor report is anticipated to give 185,000 jobs for the month of April which the market in now focused on.

It is most likely that this pair will be influenced by the jobs data and if the results are positive, the pair will follow through.if the price breaks higher than the 112 level will be a relevant move while a break at 113 level could further bring the price at 115 level which is the former peak that is in consolidation. More noise in the trend would also impact the trend and make it more difficult to trade during the day. If traders would sway with the ongoing volatility, there is a chance for long term trades. Traders could buy the pair multiple time as it moves towards the 115 handle.

There is not much pressure anymore for the USD/JPY pair as its reach new weekly top during the Thursday session. The uptrend halted at 112.75 which is the psychological level for yesterday and the following morning. Buyers tried to test the 113.00 level prior to the New York opening. The resistance level resides at 113.00 level while the support is found at 112.00 region. The 4-hour charts are showing positive signs. If the bulls were able to break higher than the 113.00 level in the next sessions, the next possible target would be at 113.50 level.

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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: May 10, 2017
« Reply #42 on: May 10, 2017, 06:25:41 PM »

The U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen rallied as it broke at 114 handle. This would most likely move higher towards the 115 level which has been the peak of the last consolidation region and it would not take that long before the market reaches it. It is anticipated for a reversal to occur from now and then which will serve as buying opportunities in the market, most especially that there is a tone of bullishness seen in the trend. Volatility fluctuations is also expected that determines the weakness of the yen.

Price reversals could turn into an opportunity for this pair especially since the Japanese yen performs well in the market. Although, It may not be favorable to go short in this pair. The 113.30 region is being strongly supportive but there is a lesser possibility to go low to this level. It wouldn’t take long for buyers to return.

If the price breaks higher than the 115 level, this could move towards 118 handle. Although, it needs more momentum from the traders to reach this level. Hence, it may not be good to sell this pair for now.

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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: May 22, 2017
« Reply #43 on: May 22, 2017, 06:51:13 PM »

The U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen broke in the upper than stabilize the currency pair during the Friday session. This indicates that the market had adjusted with the minimal risk this weekend which is a positive thing.The trading has been strong which is being monitored by traders and they try to bring the price higher than the 112.50 level. Although, as of the moment, the trend is currently in accumulation. If the market could break higher than the 112.50 level would give a bullish tone in the market and would move the price continue to 114 level. This would even go higher when the Federal reserve decided to bring the interest rates higher and this possibility of raising rates caused selling early this week.

The U.S. jobless claims declined which is one of the major directives of Federal reserve that would most likely impede the interest rate hike. Others would want to be dovish or totally forget about it but it is not plausible to do so as the U.S. has eased monetary for the past years and is not exemplifying expected results. On the other hand, the employment is being tight indicating the strengthening of the economy which would bring the interest rates higher as expected.

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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: May 24, 2017
« Reply #44 on: May 24, 2017, 07:15:42 PM »

The U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen had a calm trading During the Tuesday session. The price rallied higher because massive support found at 111 level. The market tries to push it higher towards the 111.50 region and this could even go higher reaching towards the 112.50 level above which has been a significant psychological region previously.

With the fluctuation in the stock market, traders should monitor the indices especially the S&P 500 because of its high sensitivity to risk appetite. This would hint the next move in the trading market as there is a high correlation between the two. The Japanese yen being a safe haven asset would bring about greater risk appetite when it proceeded with a sell-off. This is a positive indication since a massive bullish candle was formed during the day.

If the price breaks higher than the 112.50 level, the current long-term uptrend will be sustained. This is a strong indicator but the market could attempt more than once to be successful as the market would most likely climb higher.

However, when the price breaks lower than the 112.50 level instead, the massive support will remain as of how it was in the past. The stock market is gaining momentum which could also push the price higher for long-term with a strong correlation with the stocks. Hence, traders should monitor changes not only in forex market but also in the stock market.