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Messages - Andrea ForexMart

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General Discussion / Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart
« on: September 22, 2017, 01:32:36 PM »
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: September 22, 2017

The EUR/USD had a mixed performance during the daytime trading on Thursday, showing some choppiness without any hints on how to handle the dollar recovery. It happened after the FOMC meeting in which the Federal Reserve did not exclude chances for a rate increase in December and decided to begin the program to cut balance sheets. These combined announcements enabled to maintain the bid under the greenbacks, however, the trend of the EURUSD pair remained choppy to a certain extent.

Moreover, the single European currency weakened and moved below the 1.19 mark during the morning session, afterward, it started to recover and moved upwards since the US dollar weakened again over other selected currencies. With this, the euro was able to drive higher than the 1.19 level and currently trading in the 1.2950 area which continues to gain strength. It appeared that the pair would retrace its losses in the near term while the dollar bulls still having a tough time to generate strength recovery.

The USD failed to become well-composed in the past couple of days, as it loses its bullish gains. While the EUR successfully recovered due to the discussion about the continuous QE tapering in the market which is very visible to everyone.

In the near term, the euro is expected to remain in the bid as the pair test the range highs at 1.2070. The time for the dollar has not happened yet, therefore, bulls should be willing to wait for strong signals sent by the Fed regarding the rate hike, together with the ECB’s tapering talk and from that, we could expect for a reversal of fortune.

Ultimately, there are no major economic releases for today except the  speech of ECB President Mario Draghi which is anticipated during London hours. According to forecasts, Draghi will tackle about the monetary policy while the market is still searching for some insights about tapering, however, the ECB president is known for his inclination not to touch the monetary policy during this kind of meetings. Furthermore, it remains unclear if this will brought an impact towards the euro-dollar pair.

EUR/USD Discussions / Re: Daily EUR/USD Analysis from ForexMart
« on: September 21, 2017, 02:21:08 PM »
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: September 21, 2017

The EURUSD trailed downwards during Wednesday's trading session after the release of Federal Research report as the central bank maintained interest rates. Moreover, the Fed Reserve announced that they progress with the quantitative tightening with an amount of 600 billion approximately, which is related to balance sheet reduction every year.

The FOMC also mentioned another rate increase scheduled presumably in December. Among 16 Fed members, there are 11 who voted for a hike this year. According to forecasts made by the officials, it might extend until next year to attain the neutral rate level of Fed funds. The Federal Reserve System gradually approach the issue about the three-time hike in 2019 and 2020 and the long-term rate was lowered down to 2.75%, with the previously 3.0%.

The euro-dollar pair weakened after the dollar made some progress along with the increase of yields. The support lies at 1.1834 region around the lows last week while resistance can be found at 1.2092 level near the previous highs.

The RSI (relative strength index) which functions as a momentum oscillator measuring the performance of the momentum, whether it will accelerate or decelerate. The indicator broke the support which shows an ascending negative momentum. On the other hand, the MACD histogram prints in the red, reflecting a downward trajectory that leads to a lower exchange rate.

EUR/USD Discussions / Re: Daily EUR/USD Analysis from ForexMart
« on: September 20, 2017, 02:59:47 PM »
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: September 20, 2017

The currency pair EUR/USD was able to make some slight improvement during the trading session yesterday, however, the pair resumed the consolidation prior the meeting of the Fed Reserve scheduled on Thursday.

The German Zew Investor confidence had increased which buoyed the euro-dollar pair, but the attention of the traders are centered towards the Federal Reserve. When they mentioned about quantitative tightening during the meeting, it would likely that the U.S. import prices will rise more than 2% year over year.

The EURUSD remained to sit on the 10-day moving average, and continued consolidating before the Fed meeting tomorrow. The pair’s support touched the 1.1834 level around the lows last week. On one side, the resistance entered the 1.2092 region near the highs of the previous week.

Moreover, prices seem to generate a bull flag formation serves a pause that refreshes upwards. The negative momentum is moving downwards while the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index is printing in the red showing an ascending trajectory that reflects for further consolidation.

EUR/USD Discussions / Re: Daily EUR/USD Analysis from ForexMart
« on: September 19, 2017, 05:14:08 PM »
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: September 19, 2017

The euro-dollar pair remained almost unchanged as it stayed in the level 1.1953 under the 10-day moving average. On the other hand, the inflation came in at 1.5% which is lower the 2% target of the European Central Bank. Now, traders’ attention was turned to the Fed Reserve meeting on September 19 and 20, but there is no any expectations for the meeting. Moreover, the Fed had mentioned some ways in managing the bond purchase program. Contrarily, the Bundesbank assumes that growth will slow down in the second half of the fiscal year.

The EURUSD consolidated prior the meeting of the Federal Reserve which is scheduled tomorrow. The pair’s support hit the 1.1834 mark which is seen around the lows of the previous week. The resistance highlighted the region 1.2092 around the highs last week.

The momentum maintained a negative stance while the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) indicator prints in the red with a descending trajectory, pointing to lower exchange rate.

General Discussion / Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart
« on: September 15, 2017, 04:39:33 PM »
GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: September 15, 2017

The British pound moves sideways during the beginning of the Thursday session. This surged to the upper channel after the Bank of England hinted that there will be interest rate hikes soon.

Hence, the market will most likely proceed with buying on the lows and it may not be wise to short this pair for now. For long-term, the pair will try to reach the 150 handle and above. Selling will be difficult for this pair and the 145-level or lower will continue to support the market which gives a bit of a bullish pressure.

USD/JPY Discussions / Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart: USD/JPY
« on: September 14, 2017, 03:53:13 PM »
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: September 14, 2017

The U.S. dollar versus the Japanese yen rallied to the upper channel during the Wednesday session and there is an unabating buying pressure. The discussion on tax reform from the United States further worsens the situation since it came out earlier than expected. On the other hand, this is favorable for the greenback. This makes more U.S. companies more aggressive and in all likelihood boost the U.S. economy. On this condition, it is presumed that buyers will enter the market and attain the level of 111. If the market successfully breaks out, there is a potential for the price to move much higher. 

EUR/USD Discussions / Re: Daily EUR/USD Analysis from ForexMart
« on: September 13, 2017, 02:53:31 PM »
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: September 13, 2017

European yields increased again together with the stabilization of risk appetite and revival of the global stock market that keeps buoying the EURUSD pair.

Eurozone peripherals had performed better while the European Central Bank assures for a cautious move as it prepares to ease off the stimulator. Meanwhile, the chain store sales of the United States declined after the destructive hurricanes Harvey and Irma that are predicted to put pressure on the national figures for this week.

The German economic ministry anticipates slow growth in the H2, which implies that employment growth might curb sentiment.

The euro-dollar pair formed another Doji day showing the opening and closing level were at the same point reflecting an indecision. The support highlighted the 1.1937 level close to the 10-day moving average. While the resistance came in at 1.2092 near the September peaks.

The momentum is in the neutral position and the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) indicator prints around the zero index level linked with a flat trajectory that shows some consolidation. Moreover, the  RSI (relative strength index) known to be a momentum oscillator that assesses the increasing or decreasing momentum. The index prints a reading of 59 in the middle of the neutral range, which also indicates further consolidation.

USD/JPY Discussions / Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart: USD/JPY
« on: September 11, 2017, 02:48:11 PM »
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: September 11, 2017

The U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen had a significant breakdown during the Friday session. Nevertheless, the market proceeds to move downward and a breakdown lower than 108.0 level gives a negative outlook. Hence, this could lead to a further decline and even lower than the 105 level. This gives a very pessimistic outlook and the concept of the Federal Reserve in not raising its interest rates for short-term would persist to have an effect on the market. It is next to monitor the equities which would also influence the next movement of the pair.

USD/JPY Discussions / Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart: USD/JPY
« on: September 08, 2017, 03:12:53 PM »
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: September 8, 2017

The US dollar weakened versus the safe-haven Japanese Yen amid Thursday’s session and tested the 108.50 handle. This level appeared to be an interesting area because it is the bottom of the longer-term consolidation. A close under this region of the daily candle will push the market downwards through the next major support hurdle, which is the level of 105 below.

Otherwise, when the market rebounded from that point, then it is possible to return to the 109.50 mark. It will take some time for the market to declare their targets and we are currently at a very significant region on the longer-term charts.

General Discussion / Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart
« on: September 07, 2017, 04:07:20 PM »
USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: September 7, 2017

The U.S. dollar against the Japan yen was traded lower during the beginning of Wednesday session. Yet, the market has bounced off and almost kept the rate as it reached low levels at 108.441. For the week, the trading situation gives a similar outlook after the missile launch by North Korea over Japan.

The USD/JPY pair was seen positioning at 108.724 and declined by 0.078 or -0.07% at 10.21 GMT. The USD/JPY pair closed the session at 0.884 down by -0.81% on Tuesday.

The Forex pair dropped with the current tension with North Korea as well as the rhetorics from Fed speakers. Traders are getting anxious prior to the monetary policy decision of the European Central Bank on Thursday.

Investors keep on reacting to the happenings in the North Korea and the price movement of the safe haven assets. Moreover, the stock market compellingly suggests that traders are concerned with the minimal progress towards the lowering the threat of a nuclear war.

Traders have been anxious with the issue on North Korea especially since the next nuclear test will happen on Sunday. Across the globe, this act was being contradicted as the price movement in the stock market where more investors are being disappointed since there is lack of progress in controlling the situation.

The USD/JPY pair will most likely continue trading with the influence of the U.S. Treasury yields and opinion of investors. The price action of the U.S. Treasury yields which is supported by the economic data and Fed speakers. Reactions of investors are influenced by the geopolitical events about North Korea.

Some minor U.S. data such as Trade Balance, Final Services PMI and the Fed Beige Book and the major report on the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI will be released on Wednesday. The anticipated figure will be 55.8 and increased from 53.9.

The whole report may not be that relevant and move the pair. Also, the investors will center its attention on North Korea since this is unpredictable. Fears of uncertainty are reflected for the first time with investors who are taking off setting positions in the stock a market and place the money in safe haven assets. Traders should monitor for another stock sell-off for today.

General Discussion / Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart
« on: September 07, 2017, 03:38:27 PM »
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: September 7, 2017

As the week begins, the EUR/USD was seen consolidating and trading in a tight range which continues in the past 24 hours. But it is possible to change its course after the next 24 hours since the markets will draw their attention towards the single European currency, also with the plan of the European Central Bank in the near term.

The euro-dollar pair hovered at the level of 1.19 in the following day, however, there are no hints of any specific trend. Generally, markets appeared to be in a consolidation mode because traders and investors are waiting for the situation to become normal and calm again.

The tension and global risks remain high as the market somewhat predicts for an approaching attack from the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. With this, the dollar weighed down with a lot of pressure since Monday.

However, the focus for this day could possibly be in the euro due to the announcement made by the ECB about interest rates which is followed by a press conference. The central bank planned to maintain the rates steady and this is what M. Draghi expected to say during the press con. Hence, this will determine the direction of the EUR in the short term.

The ECB is now very cautious about the strengthening of the euro as the bank failed to reverse or change the fundamentals and planning to put euro in a bid in order to limit the currency’s strength. If Draghi did not do so, then it is expected the EUR/USD will move under the 1.19 handle and drove near 1.18 in the near term. Otherwise, the pair will return to its highs at 1.2070 again.

Ultimately, there are no major releases from the United States or from the euro region. Therefore, the focus will turn to the developments in Korea, as well as to the ECB.

EUR/USD Discussions / EUR/USD Technical Analysis: September 6, 2017
« on: September 06, 2017, 04:46:15 PM »

The EURUSD moved sideways during the opening of Tuesday’s session, however, Americans have returned to market and bought the single European currency. Another attempt to touch the level 1.20 was made and expected to offer some psychological resistance. As it may be a reversal of the risk off sentiment that was felt across the board. Nevertheless, Americans are planning to embrace the risk on attitude within the currency markets.

The weakness of the greens were generally seen, hence the euro-dollar pair attracted further gains. A close over the 1.20 region based on a daily close has the potential to push the market higher in the longer-term and the targets remains on top of 1.25 level.

Pullbacks keep on buying opportunities and later on will obtain an impulsive trend to move upwards. But, it should be noted that the 1.20 area is highly significant. Several opportunities could probably appear, however patience is very necessary to find the pullbacks which could provide signals when is the best timing to be involved in the market.

General Discussion / EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: August 30, 2017
« on: August 31, 2017, 12:22:01 PM »

The rates are still maintained despite high volatility during the Tuesday trading session. The volatility is not surprising as the market reacted to the speeches from Draghi and Yellen on Friday. The speeches finished late for the day when the U.K. market closed as well as on Monday which is a holiday in the U.S.

Volatility is already anticipated which is what happened yesterday. Furthermore, the monthly end currency flow added to it. It supported the pair to move higher over the 1.20 level as it moved towards 1.2070 prior to the U.S. session. Higher global risk also partly contributed to the movement which directly involves the U.S. as the DPRK persists to threaten with different missile tests. Nevertheless, the situation has been handled pretty well and the same time supported the dollar to strengthen in the later in the day.

There was a correction seen that further pushed the pair towards the 1.20 level that closed the day when it started. The movement occurred quite fastly as traders are anxious on how long the trend will last. They are also cautious and trying to see how long before the ECB will intervene in the event of strong euro. These have had a big impact on euro and there will most likely be choppiness for short-term.

For today, the preliminary GDP data and the ADP report from the U.S. are anticipated to be released today which could greatly affect the pair and monitor its impact on the increase of rates. This would also determine if it big enough for the Fed to proceed with a quick rate hike by the end of the year. Hence, volatility is already anticipated and the holiday period is about to end as the EUR/USD pair would have a big change in action for short-term.

General Discussion / USD/CAD Technical Analysis: August 25, 2017
« on: August 26, 2017, 04:01:15 PM »

During the Thursday session, the U.S. dollar dropped against the Canadian dollar as it reached the 1.25 handle once again. If the market was able to breakout below, this could fasten the pace to proceed downhill. Although, this would not be a facile process. A rebound is also plausible which is already foreseeable if it happens but the 1.26 level remains resistive. A breakout in the upper channel which would have a big influence to the pair as traders react to the speech with Janet Yellen for today. Volatility could exist in the market, despite the ones in power are the sellers.

GBP/USD Discussions / GBP/USD Technical Analysis: August 24, 2017
« on: August 24, 2017, 05:35:53 PM »

There was a choppy session in trading British pound against U.S. dollar on Wednesday. Traders were unsuccessful in their attempt to bring the price higher. There was a breakdown at the level of 1.28 which gives a bearish tone in trading. Although, the 1.2850 level and above could offer sufficient selling pressure to reverse the trend. It is advisable to sell in short-term rallies as the market continues to be cautious to possess the British pound ahead of the negotiations.

A resistance is found at the 1.29 level which could appeal to sellers between the levels of 1.2850 and 1.29. On the other hand, a break lower than the lows of the day could lead to a further decline with a short-term target of 1.2650 level.

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