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Messages - Andrea ForexMart

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General Discussion / EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: July 20, 2017
« on: July 21, 2017, 03:56:08 PM »

The Euro against the British pound moved laterally at the beginning of Wednesday session followed by a slight declined. There is a lot of choppiness as it moves closer to the 0.8850 level. There is a massive support found below the 0.88 level where the choppiness is expected to persist and buyers will return in the market after some time.

The 0.88 level below is being supportive in short-term perspective and it could move towards the 0.89 level. As for long-term, it will search for the 0.90 level which is massively significant psychological level. Pullbacks opens long opportunities unless it breaks lower than the 0.88 level which is not a good sign.

The volatility will persist for this pair in consideration of Brexit negotiation between the United Kingdom and the European Union. This adds risks to market which will be either favorable for the trader or not.

It is wise to look for smaller positions since the market could react to this at a faster rate and not be surprised and disturbed by the random comments from politicians in Brussels or London. Nevertheless, the uptrend remains strong in the long-term charts and a hint of bullishness below the present psychological levels.

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General Discussion / USD/CAD Technical Analysis: July 18, 2017
« on: July 19, 2017, 01:01:10 PM »

The US dollar attempted to rally during Monday opening, however, rolled over once again. There is a tendency that the market will resume selling rallies, considering the interest rate differential of Canada with the United States may begin expansion through bond markets.

The rates of Canada rose as it was placed some large bets while American bonds were shorted. With this, the monetary flow would probably continue to move northwards.  Traders are expected to focus more on the oil markets, however, they are still looking some support.

In the longer-term, they appeared to have a bullish bias while the market attempts to reprice the bond condition and the oil was disregarded in the short term. In addition to it, the oil is generally bearish that influenced the Loonie afterward.

The initial significant area may provide support at 1.25 region. Moreover, the market resume to sell rallies and we should look for exhaustion on the back of short-term rallies to acquire benefit from.

Market participants should have the patience to wait for the opportunity during the half day of trading and the USDCAD will probably follow such rules. The 1.28 mark might offer a complete ceiling and a broke on top of that point may deal with buying. Therefore, we should not anticipate for that to occur in the short term and this is quite some kind of “one-way trade”.

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General Discussion / EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 14, 2017
« on: July 14, 2017, 03:29:13 PM »

Despite the fact that EUR/USD appeared to be volatile and fluctuates continuously and when we zoom out the trends viewed on the daily scale, we can see that the euro-dollar pair is trading in a quite tight range in the past couple of days.

Apparently, the pair is bullish but a move over the 1.1450 region a few days ago, correct back towards that level and it trades on top of 1.14 mark as of this writing.

Failure to move beyond the level 1.1450, despite the weakening of the US dollar previously, should still be considered by the bulls. As they are expectant that the EURUSD will remain to trend upwards when it cleared the resistive region at 1.1430. Yet, there’s no any movement happened and the pair trades under the broken resistance as of this moment.

As the euro bulls spent more time in managing their move, it provides a greater chance that dollar bullishness may eventuate and then trimmed lower until nothing.

Janet Yellen’s testimony in 2 days did not bring out any hints of hawkishness that disappointed the dollar bulls again yesterday since they somewhat expected that she will support the dollar and give any clues regarding economic growth and the schedule of the next rate increase. The Fed Chair spoke her typical lines without providing any signals and this resulted in a weaker dollar.

Ultimately, the US CPI and retail sales and other significant data is the second most important set of data next to jobs report. Therefore, it should be monitored closely in order to know if there is some recovery in the employment statistics for these figures could also lead to a recovery. In case that this happens, we will witness a fully recovered US dollar.

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EUR/USD Discussions / EUR/USD Technical Analysis: July 13, 2017
« on: July 13, 2017, 04:36:21 PM »

The euro-dollar was able to clear the level 1.1488 followed by the strong data of the EMU production while the ECB Governing Council member, Ignazio Visco emphasized again that the European region should have a stronger expansionary policy.

The exchange rate had reversed its direction during the latter part of the session, then whipsawed after the testimony of Fed Chair Janet Yellen in front of Congress. The exchange rate further increased, however, failed to preserve its gains after an upward movement towards the 1.1489 region which is currently the resistance. The support of the pair can be found on the 10-day moving average at 1.1404 mark.

The momentum gained the neutral position while the MACD histogram is printed near the zero level and the index further prints in the black with a flat trajectory which indicates consolidation.
The rate consolidates continuously after the break out and hovered in the bull flag continuation pattern which is a respite that prompts higher.

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General Discussion / GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: July 11, 2017
« on: July 12, 2017, 10:34:08 AM »

The British pound attempted to soar against the Japanese yen but failed as it pulled back to the 147 level. The market has been advancing in the long term more like grinding and gain from small increments.

It seems that the market is going to decline for any particular period of time since the Bank of Japan will most likely maintain its low borrowing rates for long-term. Whilst the Bank of England might increase its rates in near-term and after some time, the price could break towards the 150 level. Currently, it is a little bit over extended laterally that makes grinding a way to gain impetus and proceed to the upper channel for long-term.

Buying dips would be an ideal to gain in short-term but restricted to not so good moves (20 to 30 pips is attainable). However, if it breaks lower than the 146 level then this could proceed lower towards the 145 handle which can be more supportive compared to the areas being tested as of the moment.

It may be a bit difficult to trade the GBP/JPY pair yet the market signals that they favor the uptrend.  Hence, it is best to hold shorting this pair especially since the 150 is being strongly resistive. However, if this has been gapped, the market could rally much higher for an extended period.

For now, the short-term profits in the market could get bigger once it gains momentum but it still requires more patience to trade this pair in the market. 

6
AUD/USD Discussions / AUD/USD Technical Analysis: July 10, 2017
« on: July 10, 2017, 04:00:34 PM »

The main trend of the AUD/USD pair in the daily swing chart is moving in an uptrend. However, the momentum is pushing it to go lower. When the trade exceeds the .7712, this will shift the main trend to move up.

A trade at the .7571 level indicates the continuation of the downtrend and possibly towards the minor base at .7535 region. A breakdown to this level will shift the course of the minor trend to go down.

The main trend range between .7372 and .7712 with a retracement level at .7542 and .7502 as the next lower target. With the uptrend of the market,  the buyers will most likely return to the test zone. For short-term, the range is between .7712 and .7571 with the retracement area at .7642 and .7658 which is the next upside target. Sellers might counter the trend belligerently and attempt to create a secondary lower top in the next test.

The closing during Friday was positioned at .7600, similar to the price movement this morning. The direction of the AUD/USD pair highly depends on the trader’s sentiment to the downtrend angle at .7592.

When the .7592 is held, this signifies the presence of buyers in the market and could further go up with the potential targets at .7632, .7642, .7632 and .7658 levels. On the other hand, when the .7592 level is kept steady, this indicates the presence of sellers. The target level when the price moves to the downside with the initial target at .7571 then .7542 to .7535 levels.

Traders should monitor the angle at .7592. The reaction of traders will determine if buyers will enter the market or sellers will put in a selling pressure instead.

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General Discussion / EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 7, 2017
« on: July 07, 2017, 03:36:14 PM »

The EUR/USD climb higher on the positive news for the single European currency and brought negative news for the US dollar, hence, this helped the pair to return towards the range of its highs where it previously existed.

The euro-dollar pair appeared to be very bullish as of this time while traders and euro bulls will cheer up due to the fact that a major portion of this is from the existing strength of the EUR. This not the same during the earlier times wherein the pair trailed upwards following the dollar’s weakness.

As mentioned in the earlier forecast, the bullish run will remain intact within this pair and it appeared that will take some time prior the euro recovery. This happened yesterday due to the release of ECB minutes which clearly indicates that officials talked about preserving the QE tapering. However, decided to hold back until the inflation data support this move. It further shows that the ECB is very serious in considering the tapering as this also wrought a large increase for the EUR. In case that it lacks steam to push the EURUSD higher, we could rely on the ADP employment report which presented lower than expected value of 158K versus projections of 185K.

As the ADP served as a precursor to the NFP scheduled to be released later this day, it further acts as a reminder for the dollar bulls that they are not yet far from that critical phase and that other challenges and struggle continues in the near-term. With this, the trend of sluggish US data resumed in the past couple of days. This questioned the Fed’s decision on ignoring the weak data after they implemented rate hike in the previous month. Ultimately, the focus is on the NFP along with the wages report and should be keenly monitored. Any hints of weakness in this report will only need some stimulant in order for the euro bulls to support the pair to 1.05 level.

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EUR/USD Discussions / EUR/USD Technical Analysis: July 6, 2017
« on: July 06, 2017, 03:54:04 PM »

The EURUSD rebounded from its session lows after the release of FOMC minutes which indicates rising concerns of Fed officials regarding the drop in inflation accelerating.

The pair buoyed due to stronger data showed by the EU PMI and Retail Sales.

Peter Praet from the European Central Bank strongly suggests to be leery and patient and take it slow in changing the monetary policy.

The pair further bounced around the support level 1.1318 close to the 10-day moving average.

The resistance approached the 1.1444 region around the June highs. The momentum on the euro-dollar pair came in neutral while the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram prints near the zero index level. The index constitutes a flat trajectory pointing towards consolidation.

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EUR/USD Discussions / EUR/USD Technical Analysis: July 5, 2017
« on: July 05, 2017, 04:32:30 PM »
 
The euro-dollar pair resumed its downfall while the U.S. yields were able to make further progress on the back of the stronger-than-expected result of the  ISM Manufacturing report issued on Monday. The US market was closed on Tuesday due to  Independence Day holiday, however, there are few catalysts that stimulate the EURUSD amid balance of the week which includes the United States’ Payroll report on Friday.
 
The pair headed lower and bound to test the support close to the 10-day moving average found at 1.129. The exchange rate eased from the 1.14 handle which is considered the 1-year high and stayed around 1.1350 region near the peaks of August 2016.
 
The resistance highlighted the 1.1444 mark. Momentum came in neutral while the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) histogram prints in the black linked with a flat trajectory which suggests some consolidation.

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General Discussion / GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 04, 2017
« on: July 04, 2017, 04:07:28 PM »
 
The British pound against the U.S. dollar has had a difficult trading session yesterday as the dollar is starting to recover in the market as the week starts. Several data are expected to come out from the U.S. as traders are anticipating these data to be supporting the greenback.
In view of this, this commences the week in a great start especially for the U.S. dollar that dollar bulls could take advantage of and could further get better until the holiday but could proceed into consolidation prior to the resurgence of the volatility tomorrow.
The cable has had trouble following the bad data from the U.K. when the Manufacturing PMI did not meet expectations. Although, the Manufacturing PMI data from the U.S. came in stronger. These added pressure to the GBP/USD pair and promote the pair to get lower at 1.30 up to 1.29 level.
Currently, the pair is hovering strongly close to the resistance region in 1.3030 which seems to be similar to yesterday’s forecast. Moreover, the pair climbed uphill at a quicker pace where a correction won’t be surprising to happen.
The market sentiment is becoming stronger that the BOE would hike rates sooner which is also supported by the central bank as it is hawkish over the past month. Governor Carney is saying that the pound has surpassed the obstacle and a hawkish decision would be beneficial for the pound.
More expectantly, the employment data from the U.S. are assumed to come out positively which could raise the option for another rate hike from the Fed soon. It is intriguing on the how next week will turn out as the pound and the dollar would fight off on which will be priced higher than the other.
For today, the Construction PMI data from the U.K is expected to be published while the U.S. in a holiday that offsets the volatility and the liquidity in the market with low trading activities. It is reasonable to expect consolidation in the market.

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General Discussion / USD/JPY Technical Analysis: July 03, 2017
« on: July 03, 2017, 05:28:40 PM »
 
The U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen moved laterally during the Friday session. It proceed to grind close to the 112 level and if the market is successful in breaking higher than the peak of the range for the day, the next move of the market would be towards 113 handle. Buyers continue to jump in the market following the dovish decision of the Bank of Japan regarding its monetary policy. Any pullback cannot be a telltale sign of a downtrend, not until a break lower than the 110 region has been achieved to determine if the potential uptrend has ended.

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General Discussion / NZD/USD Technical Analysis: June 30, 2017
« on: June 30, 2017, 05:42:16 PM »
 
The New Zealand currency experienced a volatile session during Wednesday's trading reaching the downtrend line shown in the weekly timeframe, and eventually, break down.
 
A position under the 0.73 handle indicates a slightly bearish tone, but, the longer-term market attempts to establish an adequate pressure to accomplish a breakout.
 
The downtrend line is important as the commodity markets do not offer any help towards the NZD. Having said that, performing a breakout might be difficult however when doing so, it should be massive as it touches the level 0.75 in short order.
 
Alternatively, it is also possible to breakdown but it requires a gap under the 0.7250 region to be conference since that area is considered to be a “lower low”
 
The NZDUSD pair endured an extreme volatility in the last few sessions suggests the previous situation within the Forex market in general.
 
The Kiwi dollar is known to be the least liquid among major pair that’s why we normally see lots of noise.
 
The current level of 0.73 is basically a “fair value” for the pair, hence, short-term traders would likely resume moving from side to side around that territory.
 
In the longer-term, a confirmation in order to complete the breakout is necessary even for bullish traders, as a means to put money to play within a really choppy market.
 
In case that, agricultural futures gained higher value this would mean that the NZ dollar will receive some support. But it appeared that traders’ attention is focused on the current situation of the interest rate.

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EUR/USD Discussions / EUR/USD Technical Analysis: June 30, 2017
« on: June 30, 2017, 03:02:30 PM »
 
The currency pair EUR/USD had broken out and expected to resume its upward movement while inflation data appeared to be stronger than anticipated that lead the European yields higher.
 
The yield differential currently moves to the side of EU yields that paved the way for the single European currency to gain higher.
 
Confidence further surges on its renewed decade highs while consumer lending also increased. Most of the headlines from the United States came in better than expected, however, American yields are following its EU counterparts that put pressure to USD.
 
The pair broke out through its fresh 1-year peaks over the resistance at 1.1365 around highs of August 2016 while trying to test 1.1616 level near May 2016 peaks.
 
The support reached 1.1365 mark which is a previous resistance, followed by the 10-day moving average seen at 1.1148 region.
 
The pair’s momentum became positive when the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) produced a crossover buy signal. It was generated due to spread that crosses on top of the 9-day moving average. The histogram shifted from negative to positive zone and confirmed a buy signal. The index prints in the black with an ascending trajectory indicating a higher exchange rate.

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General Discussion / EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: June 28, 2017
« on: June 28, 2017, 04:11:20 PM »

The EUR/USD was able to jump higher due to hawkish remarks of ECB head, Draghi coupled with the events happened in the United States that caused the greenbacks to weaken in general during Wednesday’s trading. The pair gained more than 160 pips in the past 24 hours and ultimately, the bullishness lasted in the past few weeks become apparent.

During the first part of the day, the pair had a usual day spending time under the 1.12 level consolidating. Followed by the statement of Draghi, who frequently not discuss monetary policy on his speeches, however, this happened yesterday that moved that market.

The European Central Bank is regarded to have a bearish stance but the strong data in the previous months that forced the bank to change their stand. Recently, M. Draghi mentioned his best indication regarding changes in track and stated that there is a likelihood that the central bank would start the tapering of QE very soon. This seems to be very hawkish for the European currency and the underlying strength aided the pair in pushing higher touching the 1.1250 level above.

A short interruption occurred prior the 1.13 area that acts like a wall in the past months and has the potential to stop the pair within that point and conduct another reversal. Nonetheless, there are reports about the delay in the US healthcare reform bill due to diverging ideas coming from the Republicans per se. This event caused the USD to lose its strength in general due to worries regarding the policy paralysis in the US that was triggered once again. It further leads the pair across the region 1.13 above and trading comfortably as of this writing.

Previous forecasts say that every last week of the each month will probably witness high volatility and this has been proven right.

We expect today for another statement from the head of ECB with an anticipation to talk about fiscal policy again and if he does not mention this or anything that contradicts his comments, the pair will remain to move upwards as it was far away from the 1.13 resistance.

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EUR/USD Discussions / EUR/USD Technical Analysis: June 27, 2017
« on: June 27, 2017, 05:58:27 PM »

The EURUSD is trading sideways during Monday’s session, however, met the resistance level at 1.12. A breakdown below that point and touched under the region 1.1175, then spotted a slightly bullish pressure. A cut through on top of the 1.12 handle and a pulled back from that point will see for another support.

With this, the pair is inclined to continue its ascending trend or maybe tried to touch the 1.13 mark in the longer term.

Volatility is still high in the market which would likely cause the single European currency to remain a market that is not easy to trade with, therefore, buying is our only choice.
The “fair value” is found at the 1.12 area and this point should be maintained. Buyers are starting to dominate the market, and there is no reason to stop moving near the 1.13 mark again.

It is possible that the market will continue to provide lots of buying opportunities on the dips in the short-term at least.

The market appeared to be crucial when imposing a sell signal unless we break the region under 1.1170. Ability to breakdown will lead the market towards 1.1125 handle.

A cut through over 1.13 mark, the market will drive going to the top of 1.15 range which is a strong barrier as indicated on the longer-term charts. As consolidation between the bottom of 1.05 and top of 1.15 continues in the past three years.

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