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Messages - Andrea ForexMart

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1
EUR/USD Discussions / Re: Daily EUR/USD Analysis from ForexMart
« on: January 23, 2018, 09:58:55 AM »
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 22, 2018

The euro is being traded steadily since morning today. It seems that it weakened during Friday and it was able to support the level of 1.22 following the rebound to the support area and soared higher which continues until today. There has been major news from the U.S. and the eurozone which would bring volatility in the market.

Although the volatility present was insufficient to push the pair in either direction and stayed within a tight range between 1.22 and 1.23 over the past few weeks. There is a risk for a government closure as the bill has been passed which was blocked in the Senate through suffrage. It is anticipated that there will be an interim bill which will occur during the U.S. session. Nevertheless, this would have an effect on the dollar amid the various problems the U.S. encounter in the past few years.

This would be problematic for the Trump administration, which is not surprising. There are reports where the debate between Merkel and SPD party would continue looking for a coalition for short-term. This would keep the euro buoyed up during this period of time. There is also a press conference by the end of the week which is anticipated by the market on the decision of ECB.

For today, there are no major news from the U.S or the eurozone, which is already anticipated to happen in the second half of January. Although, there is various economic news to be reconsidered on either side, which would induce the volatility at bay.

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USD/JPY Discussions / Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart: USD/JPY
« on: January 19, 2018, 02:41:42 PM »
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: January 19, 2018

The U.S. dollar pulled back during the Thursday session and move towards the 111 level, which was offered both as support and resistance in the past that made it not surprised. There is a possibility for the price to rebound and reach the level of 112. Taking into consideration that the market is highly sensitive to risk appetite as a whole. The noise will probably persist in the market but there is nothing new for the Japanese yen in general. 

As a rule, traders should buy when the S&P 500 and sell when it breaks down. Generally, the market proceeds to find support. Eventually, the market proceeds to find support close to the level of 110 with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. As a buyer, I realized that this market is good for short-term but not long-term ones. However, there is still choppiness in the market which should be taken seriously with respect. The attitude of the market changes every day and traders should be cautious in this regard with risk in the market. If it breaks down lower than the 110 level, this is likely to move lower towards 107.50 level. Although, this will most likely not happen soon since there is support below.

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General Discussion / Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart
« on: January 19, 2018, 10:14:05 AM »
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 18, 2018

There is choppiness in trading the EUR/USD pair and continues its trading between 1.22 and 1.23 without no specific direction yet. Yesterday, the pair moved higher in the first half of the day, which will most likely favor the dollar. However, it shifted by the end of the day when the dollar has recovered and became stronger.

The euro has been gaining momentum in the past week although the euro rallied against the dollar in the previous month, which was influenced by the decline of the dollar while the euro became stronger. It was only in the past week that the euro started to strengthen independently due to the possibility of ECB tapering and completion of the quantitative easing by the end of the year. This largely influenced the euro as it rose higher and has most likely continued during the first half of yesterday. It reached the level of 1.23 and established a beeline on the trend. 

Yet, this was reversed during the second half of the day as the ECB was thrown into a disarray following the quick rise of the euro and should be brought down through statements and confirmation of the QE to return to normal levels. It clearly shows that their position would lead to termination of the QE, which was further supported by the incoming data. Although the central would rather strengthen the euro slowly. Thus, this supported the euro and slid down while the dollar was able to grow during the U.S. trading session and further pushed the price lower than 1.22 as of the moment.

For today, there are is no major news from the U.S. or the eurozone, which will most likely continue the choppiness for the day. Support is found in the area of 1.2180 then move further towards 1.21.

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USD/JPY Discussions / Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart: USD/JPY
« on: January 18, 2018, 01:23:30 PM »
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: January 17, 2018

There has been a choppy trading for the U.S. dollar during the Tuesday session, the day of returning to work for Americans. Looking at the hourly chart, a slight downward occurred. There are also some major levels and expect the presence of noise in the market.

The U.S. dollar swayed back and forth yesterday. The next trading level would be at 111 which is a bit resistive. If the market breaks higher, it will probably be at 112 which has been significant in the past. It seems that there will be downward pressure and push the market towards 110. Overall, there will be noise in the market that puts the global economic outlook at a better position and at the same time, there is general selling of the U.S. dollar.

Hence, there will be high volatility in the market, which will attract more traders. If the pair breaks lower than the significant level of 110, the market will probably move down towards 108 soon after. Moreover, there are a lot of areas to cover which will highlight every 100 pips. Amid the presence of noise, the market could bounce back which would become an important pullback.



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General Discussion / Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart
« on: January 17, 2018, 11:21:49 AM »
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 16, 2018

There is a hint of bullishness in yesterday’s trading session of the pound since there is no fundamental news to affect the market aside from the bank of the holiday in the U.S. As a result, the pound bulls have become relax in trading. Most likely, this is one of the reasons why the pair has been steady in the past few days but failed to break the level of 1.38 amid the weakness of the dollar.

Other than that, it could possibly be because of a big news expected to come this week, particularly the inflation data and retail sales data. Traders and investors anticipate the data prior to positioning themselves to any direction. The incoming data from the U.K. came out stronger which brought choppiness to trading while others came in weak, which has brought further uncertainty to the Brexit negotiations and affect the U.K. economy.

Yet, the pound was able to take advantage of euro strengthening and the weakening of the dollar. Although, this may not last for a long time. More importantly, the pound is beginning to gain momentum to move higher regardless of its condition. Also, rate hikes from the U.K. are also becoming an issue after its one rate hike last year. The succeeding hikes are deemed to be more important and the central bank has to be certain on its support actions from last year to boost the U.K. economy and confidence of investors.

There is no major news from the U.S. for today but the U.S. is presumed to return to the market following their long weekend holiday. On the other end, the inflation from the U. K. is highly anticipated later this day as it will have a significant insight on the movement of the market and give a hint on which direction does the GBP/USD pair will go.

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General Discussion / Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart
« on: January 11, 2018, 01:02:25 PM »
NZD/USD Technical Analysis: January 10, 2018

During the trading course on Tuesday, the New Zealand dollar appears to be choppy and mainly negative. The marketplace is characterized as wrist sensitive because the NZ dollar is generally influenced by “risk appetite” and commodity markets. Aside from that, there exist a dollar bias that further leads the market.

The 0.7150 mark looks like offering some kind of support for the NZD/USD currency pair, which appeared to be really strong lately. But the markets are consolidating which means that pullbacks are expected to attempt establishing momentum in order to resume the move to the upside. The longer-term charts imply consolidation between the 0.68 region on the bottom and 0.75 level above, which caused the market to resume further consolidation but the situation is regarded to be larger and longer term.

There is a tendency for the market to continue buying on the dips due to inability to reach the top of the consolidation zone after the rebound from the bottom. The Kiwi dollar would likely be slightly oversold, therefore, it is acceptable for some recovery and normality. Upon the breakdown, a significant support at the 0.71 handle should be expected which is previously a significant resistances and accompanied by a large gap since the past few weeks. Most likely, the American currency will continue to lose it strength.

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General Discussion / Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart
« on: January 08, 2018, 04:00:35 PM »
NZD/USD Technical Analysis: January 8, 2018

The New Zealand dollar was able to break higher upon the opening session on Monday, however, took a reversal throughout the week to move lower and fill the gap. In line with this, a sufficient support was seen and bounced to the upside. The day closed with a slight formation of a hammer pattern, which implies that buyers will return to the market.

It is possible that the Kiwi dollar will resume driving near the top of the overall consolidation zone, marked on the chart around 0.75 area. The 0.68 region below is considered highly supportive and basically the “floor” in the NZD/USD pair.

It remains to be seen prior shorting this market despite the noticeable breakdown underneath the bottom of the hammer for the week appears to be negative. But 0.70 level seems to be supportive which requires some time before taking long positions.

In case that commodity markets would rally in general, the upward trend would likely to continue. However, the current situation is slightly overbought which could possibly be followed by a pullback that should only offer value going forward. This is because the American currency was very weak versus other currencies. The market remains to have plenty of noise but a significant amount of bullish pressure is expected in order to continue moving forward. The highs will be tested again and will eventually break out.

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EUR/USD Discussions / Re: Daily EUR/USD Analysis from ForexMart
« on: January 03, 2018, 04:13:01 PM »
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: January 3, 2018

The Euro against the U.S. dollar climbed higher testing the resistance levels because of the exceedingly strong results of the manufacturing PMI following hints of the ECB meeting to end the quantitative easing in 2018. The European Central Bank has adjusted to the situation but with a steady inflation and progressive growth propelled the euro at a much higher rate.

The EUR/USD pair reached close to the September high at 1.2092 but was unsuccessful in breaking this rate. A strong euro has put pressure on the European stocks putting corporations into the lesser advantage against their competitors. The support level is found close to the 10-day Moving Average at 1.1920. The MACD histogram has been positive as it is printed in black with an upward sloping trajectory which could lead to a much higher Forex rate. The RSI indicator also gives an increasing positive momentum although the current rate is at 71. This is much higher than the overbought level of 70, which hints the possibility for a correction.

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General Discussion / Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart
« on: December 29, 2017, 02:15:35 PM »
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 28, 2017

The British pound against the U.S. dollar climbs higher in the past 24 hours due to the weakness of the dollar that boosts other currencies against the dollar. This is presumed to persist for short-term with the incoming long weekend as the New Year approaches which would cause a dull trading in the market. Continue reading at https://goo.gl/jwfU5K


USD/JPY Technical Analysis: December 28, 2017

It is suggested that the American should resume its rally versus the Japanese yen within a specified time and also in case of the bullish sentiment by stock markets. This usually pushes the markets towards a higher position. The USD/JPY and the S&P 500 had a special correlation which should be kept in mind. Continue reading at https://goo.gl/GGc2V6

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General Discussion / Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart
« on: December 28, 2017, 02:05:55 PM »
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 27, 2017

It was a holiday in the majority of the places in Europe, including the U.K. that makes it not surprising if the pound persisted to consolidate and traded within a tight range for the most part of trading yesterday.  The GBP/USD pair falls within a tight range since there is few major economic news.

It will not be surprising to have lesser volatility and liquidity this holiday season. At the same time, there is not much placing of trades and more on profit-taking in the past week, which can be seen mostly in the smaller market such as bitcoin. Although, it was not that obvious for pound despite there is a bigger market that is why grabbing the opportunity of any selling of this pair prior to holidays is relevant.

Come the second week of January, both liquidity and volatility will most likely gain momentum. Until then, traders should get ready for choppiness within a range near the end of the year. The market has reopened following a long weekend yet, there is still fewer traders this week since most still wanted to extend their vacation until New Year. Hence, consolidation of the pair within a tight range will persist in the next few days.

When it comes to data the Conference board’s Consumer confidence data from the U.S. is anticipated to be released today but this would not bring much volatility in the market. There is no major economic news from the U.K. Thus, there will be low trading and slow movement in the market for the rest of the day.

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General Discussion / Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart
« on: December 27, 2017, 02:28:48 PM »
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 26, 2017

The euro against the U.S. dollar started with a tight trading week in a facile environment in consideration of the current market situation. Majority of traders are on a vacation this Christmas holiday season and the New Year whereas most of them would not working. This would result to lower volatility and liquidity that would limit the range of trading for this week.

There is also not much economic data on the calendar with fewer fundamentals in the next days to come. The steady dollar was supported by the tax reform bill, which was recently passed by the Senate and signed by the U.S. President. This would benefit m0st of the companies with lots of tax benefits which is as much as important to Trump and his team. At the same time, this is foreseen to improve the labor market and boost the economy in the succeeding years.

Hence, the dollar gained a short-term boost from the bill which will most likely be in effect for this week. The euro is being traded in a right range with minor consolidation in the past few months. Although, the fundamental new was not enough to successfully break the trading range.
It is yet to be discovered where the trend will range and if it is sufficient to sustain the pair within its range until January.

For today, there is not much economic news that is anticipated to be released from the eurozone or from the U.S. It is holidays in most part of Europe, which could result to tight trading range and consolidation throughout the day.

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AUD/USD Discussions / Re: AUD/USD Analysis from ForexMart
« on: December 22, 2017, 06:14:36 PM »
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: December 22, 2017

The Aussie dollar traded sideways initially amid Thursday’s trading session, however, it moved higher following a weaker numbers of American GDP. This further caused the greenbacks to decline while providing a slight increase towards the Australian dollar during the day.

Nevertheless, the AUD/USD pair trades in a  low-volume at the margin during the day and traders are concerned to the approaching holidays in contrast to the currency markets.

It can be assumed that a break down under the 0.7625 area will push the market downwards reaching the 0.75 handle. It appears that the AUD will have some difficulty in moving higher to the upside, as a result, sellers manage to conduct a return. Perhaps, the market is easier to short at higher levels, but for now, it is suggested to stay on the sidelines until the volumes return.

There are some resistance barriers throughout the way which could make a difficult course to drive upwards. Hence, buying the commodity-linked pair seems to be under pressure. On the other hand, there’s no any shorting opportunity due to rally attempts by the market. The ability to roll over will push the market quickly, but it is impossible to see until after the New Year’s Day. Therefore, the market is expected to be difficult to deal with.

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General Discussion / Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart
« on: December 21, 2017, 03:47:23 PM »
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 21, 2017

The euro paired against the U.S. dollar still dominates the market as it positions strongly, although the volatile is starts to lessen come to the end of the week. The volatility would be much more minimize by the end of the week with the year about to end.

The U.S. tax reform bill was successfully passed that require Trump to seal it after which is anticipated soon. This is considered as an achievement for Trump as everyone in the team worked hard for this. It would also be beneficial for the large companies and gain more profit which would bring in more jobs in the U.S.

Trump has stabilized his position at the top which would now shift his attention to other bills such as the healthcare reform bill. However, the stock market and foreign exchange of the U.S. dollar did not have that much vigor, as the dollar is starting to decline recently compared to its position last week. It has been all over the market which supported the euro instead.

The EUR/USD pair was seen to touch on the 1.19 level but moved after into a consolidated yesterday. Trades are being traded just currently below the said level. When it comes to news, the final GDP data from the U.S. is anticipated today but there will be no other economic news to be published from the Eurozone. Hence, the trading range is presumed to tighten especially since the holidays are approaching.

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General Discussion / Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart
« on: December 20, 2017, 04:50:30 PM »
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 20, 2017

The GBP/USD currency pair was able to move ahead of the American dollar, as the USD lower in price amid smooth approval process of the tax bill. The passage was projected to support the dollar to increase, however, the effect was completely different. The market’s reaction remains uncertain not until the bill is already passed through in one of the US Houses and waiting for the Senate approval. However, there could be some delay due to procedural problems which could possibly place some pressure on the greenbacks that could further lead to uncertainty. As expected, the tax reform bill will be enacted by the Senate on a very tight margin and further requires the President’s signature to seal in the law. The whole scenario would likely be completed within this week, hence, the volatility in the USD should keep going until it happens.

The Brexit process does not have much improvement over this week and it is predicted to continue until New Year. Definitely, there will be some strong development in the process since the leaders on both sides clearly stated about the completion of a deal which may take a matter of time prior accomplishing the agreement. This notion seems to provide support for the pound in the past couple of weeks.

Ultimately, BOE Governor Mark Carney will have his speech but the impact to the market is predicted to be minimal. The market trend for today would likely be led by the USD and tax bill legislation. It is believed that the greens should gain more strength in the short and medium term in order to maintain the GBPUSD active.

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General Discussion / Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart
« on: December 19, 2017, 12:30:55 PM »
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 18, 2017

The British pound trades in a strong manner since the day started even despite the lack of fundamental developments. Also, there are not much economic releases on Friday which allow the consolidation and ranging for the price action within that day. At the same time, there are reports about increasing support for the US tax reform bill during the American trading session, it further indicates that the bill is expected to be passed amid the course of the current week. Hence, this enables the US dollar to grow and pushed the GBP/USD pair downwards during Friday’s late session. When the bill is approved, the strength of the greenbacks is expected to resume in the near term, until the year ends. In turn, the Cable pair will continue to be under pressure throughout this period, however, the level of impact remains unclear.

On weekend, British Prime Minister Theresa May reiterated her determination to push through the Brexit process and she further stated her willingness to deal with it in the short term concerning the payment that the United Kingdom need to settle along with the possible trade access. These two factors are the most important elements to consider but the UK and the market seem worried about these. The process appears to be a little bit of delay but the encouraging speech delivered by PM May successfully give a slight raise to the sterling earlier this morning.

Ultimately, there is no major news from the US or the UK for the rest of the day while some consolidation and ranging are expected much for today. Moreover, volatility might get a slight boost upon the onset of the US session and further updates with regards the tax bill.

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