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Messages - Andrea ForexMart

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EUR/USD Discussions / EUR/USD Technical Analysis: August 10, 2017
« on: August 10, 2017, 05:41:38 PM »

The Euro against the U.S. dollar moved sideways during the Wednesday session and consolidates higher than the 1.17 level. If a breakout occurs higher than the 1.1765 level, the trend goes climb higher.

For long-term, the trend has not successfully declined enough to sustain the level. There have been two impulsive moves headed downward and there is a chance for this to further decline. If a breaks down lower than the 1.1680 level, the price could further go down towards 1.16 level.
There is significant volatility in the market as it abruptly moves sideways and adjusted higher or lower as traders have made an unexpected move. During this time of the year, there is usually low liquidity since most senior is a holiday in big trading desks. Hence, this leaves the market a bit dormant.

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EUR/USD Discussions / EUR/USD Technical Analysis: August 4, 2017
« on: August 04, 2017, 02:59:26 PM »

The results of the European yields were mixed as it restricted the uptrend of the euro which signifies that Draghi has successfully kept the rates low. The ECB sees the need for the continuous support because of the less than expected result of the PMI. The European retail sales set in stronger than anticipated but this was countered by high jobless claims.

The EUR/USD was not able to surpass yesterday’s range but was able to increase the support level. Nevertheless, the trend persists to be positive with the support close to the 10-day Moving Average at 1.1747. The resistance level is seen close to the weekly highs at 1.1910. 

Overall, the momentum is optimistic with the MACD histogram shown a black indicator with an upward sloping direction that could lead to a higher exchange rate. The RSI positioned higher with the price indicating a positive momentum upward. Currently, the price is set at 77 which is higher than the trigger level 70 to enter the overbought area. Hence, a correction is possible to occur.

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General Discussion / GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: August 3, 2017
« on: August 03, 2017, 04:07:29 PM »

The main focus for today will be on the sterling pound as there are an expected economic releases and other data from the United Kingdom for this day. We await for the UK inflation hearings along with the rate announcement of the Bank of England to be issued. Also, BOE Governor Mark Carney will conduct his speech, therefore these events would likely cause high volatility for the GBP/USD.

The central bank of England was hawkish during their last meeting which led few markets to think that rate hike is possible sooner or later. There are three BOE members who agreed for a rate increase which triggered confidence for some markets, however, this only accounts a small portion of the market because the majority still believes that the bank will maintain its benchmark.

This is considered a logical approach regarding the continuous financial circles of Britain which could be a turmoil caused by the Brexit procedures. Moreover, a lot of things remain unclear, particularly the results of the referendum process in determining if it will a soft or hard Brexit. Due to many uncertainties, it is absurd for the BOE to make an increase and most likely, they want to see first the effect of the Brexit negotiations prior making such decisions.

The pound-dollar resume to consolidate yesterday and the range near the highs of its range are expected for this very important day. In case that the BOE decided to kept rates steady, the Cable is anticipated for further correction. The 1.3250 level serves as the ceiling at this moment.

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GBP/USD Discussions / GBP/USD Technical Analysis: August 2, 2017
« on: August 02, 2017, 06:09:22 PM »

There is high volatility during the Tuesday session as it reached the 1.3250 level but was reversed later on. It seems that the 1.32 level is being supportive as the trend proceed moving higher.

A break lower would push the market for a support towards 1.3150 level then to 1.31 level. The British pound is going to be sensitive to a lot of noise which is anticipated as amid the negotiations from the European Union and the United Kingdom. Hence, traders should be cautious of the of any abrupt changes in this pair.

The bullishness could persist for the long term. Although, this has been quite extended in the present time. A pullback opens more opportunity to make use of the current value. The market could target for a 1.3450 level above which the peak of the consolidation for the past few months.

However, if the market successfully gaps higher than the 1.3450 level, the next retest would be at 1.35 handle. A breakout would mean large bullish tone but it will not be long before the currency starts to rally once again. There will be high volatility from the start until this period ends.

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General Discussion / EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: July 31, 2017
« on: July 31, 2017, 06:03:06 PM »

The Euro against the British pound surged during the Friday session although there some resistance found close to the 0.8960 level. The market had a roll over for the few hours but was limited by the resistance level. There is much support found below that proceeds to market higher.

The next target would the 0.90 level and if the price breaks more and pushes the price towards 0.92 level for long-term. The 0.89 level below persists to be supportive that makes a breakdown far to happen. As shown in the weekly chart, the market sees the 0.89 level to be the support level.

Traders proceed to buy on the lows as it persists in supporting the euro currency. A breakout of both currencies occurred against the U.S. dollar although the market favors the euro more which is reflected in the pair. After some time, there is a lot of volatility in the market directed upward.

Shorting this pair may not be ideal but the once the price breaks higher than the 0.90 level. Buyers will turn more hostile as the psychological level of resistance. However, if the price gaps below the 0.89 level which is extraordinarily bearish that would adjust the short-term trend.

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EUR/USD Discussions / EUR/USD Technical Analysis: July 25, 2017
« on: July 25, 2017, 05:26:52 PM »

The yields across the eurozone weakened while the US dollar make further progress and the 10-year bund yields moved lower at 0.50% as the spreads of the euro area narrowed, following the sluggish results of the PMI readings based on the doubts of M.Draghi to get involve with the QE tapering.

The fresh dip in long yields influenced the EURUSD, however, the remarks from Mersch yesterday verified the postponement and not the cancellation of the QE. Moreover, the ECB will reduce the volume of its asset-buying program which is expected to start earlier in 2018.

The euro-dollar pair rallied to its renewed 23-month high around 1.1694 level and headed lower amid the balance of the trading hours to close the day.

The support for the pair entered the 1.1523 region that is near the 10-day moving average. The resistance reached the 1.1717 mark near the highs of August 2015.

The momentum is still positive as the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) index prints in the black linked with an ascending trajectory and seen pointing to a higher exchange rate.

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USD/JPY Discussions / USD/JPY Technical Analysis: July 24, 2017
« on: July 24, 2017, 06:17:47 PM »

The U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen descended during the Friday session as it gaps lower than the 111.50 level. Hence, the market declined directed to the 111 region which is a significant psychological level for this pair. Yet, the main support should be found near the 110 handle and a rally from this would open selling opportunities in the market. The 110 region is massively supportive but a retest is still needed. It seems that the market is risk sensitive but the Federal Reserve announcement still has a big impact on the pair.

Traders are beginning to presume that the Fed Reserve will slowly raise its rates where Janet Yellen has said recently saying that the data will be relative to rate hikes. This could reverse the market trend completely.

The 110 region is an area could become relevantly supportive. A bullish pressure is anticipated in that area which will be additionally supported by statements from major players such as the Federal Reserve. It is probable for the market to become bearish in the succeeding trading session but there will also be a downward pressure that restricts the trade movement. If the trend breaks lower than the 109 level then the market could collapse.

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USD/JPY Discussions / USD/JPY Technical Analysis: July 24, 2017
« on: July 24, 2017, 06:16:52 PM »

The U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen descended during the Friday session as it gaps lower than the 111.50 level. Hence, the market declined directed to the 111 region which is a significant psychological level for this pair. Yet, the main support should be found near the 110 handle and a rally from this would open selling opportunities in the market. The 110 region is massively supportive but a retest is still needed. It seems that the market is risk sensitive but the Federal Reserve announcement still has a big impact on the pair.

Traders are beginning to presume that the Fed Reserve will slowly raise its rates where Janet Yellen has said recently saying that the data will be relative to rate hikes. This could reverse the market trend completely.

The 110 region is an area could become relevantly supportive. A bullish pressure is anticipated in that area which will be additionally supported by statements from major players such as the Federal Reserve. It is probable for the market to become bearish in the succeeding trading session but there will also be a downward pressure that restricts the trade movement. If the trend breaks lower than the 109 level then the market could collapse.

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General Discussion / EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 24, 2017
« on: July 24, 2017, 05:27:02 PM »

Draghi sounded dovish during the latest press conference and he was aware of the rally of the euro since the economic data favor the currency. Although the Draghi is trying to bring the price down as expressed in his speech, the market has reacted oppositely and bought the currency even more and push the price of the EUR/USD pair towards 1.15 level. Soon after, the news regarding the business transaction of Trump investigation, a selloff in the dollar occurred that influenced the price to move towards 1.16 region. The week closed above the said region.

In the upcoming week, we are heading towards the end of the month where the economic news and events dry up and hence we do not have much news in the coming week apart from the FOMC statement. But considering how bullish the EURUSD pair has been, we believe that the next target for the pair would be the 1.18 region.

As the last day of the week and the end of the month approaches, the pair will mostly persist in a neutral stance for today. There are less economic events except for the FOMC statement recently. The next target of the pair would be at 1.18 region for short term. Once this has been achieved, a correction could follow suit as it has been beyond its highs for the year and the highest since 2015. The number of short positions for the dollar will most likely increase that poses a lot of risks and uncertainty especially for dollar bears who would immediately exit the market once it goes up.

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General Discussion / EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: July 20, 2017
« on: July 21, 2017, 03:56:08 PM »

The Euro against the British pound moved laterally at the beginning of Wednesday session followed by a slight declined. There is a lot of choppiness as it moves closer to the 0.8850 level. There is a massive support found below the 0.88 level where the choppiness is expected to persist and buyers will return in the market after some time.

The 0.88 level below is being supportive in short-term perspective and it could move towards the 0.89 level. As for long-term, it will search for the 0.90 level which is massively significant psychological level. Pullbacks opens long opportunities unless it breaks lower than the 0.88 level which is not a good sign.

The volatility will persist for this pair in consideration of Brexit negotiation between the United Kingdom and the European Union. This adds risks to market which will be either favorable for the trader or not.

It is wise to look for smaller positions since the market could react to this at a faster rate and not be surprised and disturbed by the random comments from politicians in Brussels or London. Nevertheless, the uptrend remains strong in the long-term charts and a hint of bullishness below the present psychological levels.

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General Discussion / USD/CAD Technical Analysis: July 18, 2017
« on: July 19, 2017, 01:01:10 PM »

The US dollar attempted to rally during Monday opening, however, rolled over once again. There is a tendency that the market will resume selling rallies, considering the interest rate differential of Canada with the United States may begin expansion through bond markets.

The rates of Canada rose as it was placed some large bets while American bonds were shorted. With this, the monetary flow would probably continue to move northwards.  Traders are expected to focus more on the oil markets, however, they are still looking some support.

In the longer-term, they appeared to have a bullish bias while the market attempts to reprice the bond condition and the oil was disregarded in the short term. In addition to it, the oil is generally bearish that influenced the Loonie afterward.

The initial significant area may provide support at 1.25 region. Moreover, the market resume to sell rallies and we should look for exhaustion on the back of short-term rallies to acquire benefit from.

Market participants should have the patience to wait for the opportunity during the half day of trading and the USDCAD will probably follow such rules. The 1.28 mark might offer a complete ceiling and a broke on top of that point may deal with buying. Therefore, we should not anticipate for that to occur in the short term and this is quite some kind of “one-way trade”.

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General Discussion / EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 14, 2017
« on: July 14, 2017, 03:29:13 PM »

Despite the fact that EUR/USD appeared to be volatile and fluctuates continuously and when we zoom out the trends viewed on the daily scale, we can see that the euro-dollar pair is trading in a quite tight range in the past couple of days.

Apparently, the pair is bullish but a move over the 1.1450 region a few days ago, correct back towards that level and it trades on top of 1.14 mark as of this writing.

Failure to move beyond the level 1.1450, despite the weakening of the US dollar previously, should still be considered by the bulls. As they are expectant that the EURUSD will remain to trend upwards when it cleared the resistive region at 1.1430. Yet, there’s no any movement happened and the pair trades under the broken resistance as of this moment.

As the euro bulls spent more time in managing their move, it provides a greater chance that dollar bullishness may eventuate and then trimmed lower until nothing.

Janet Yellen’s testimony in 2 days did not bring out any hints of hawkishness that disappointed the dollar bulls again yesterday since they somewhat expected that she will support the dollar and give any clues regarding economic growth and the schedule of the next rate increase. The Fed Chair spoke her typical lines without providing any signals and this resulted in a weaker dollar.

Ultimately, the US CPI and retail sales and other significant data is the second most important set of data next to jobs report. Therefore, it should be monitored closely in order to know if there is some recovery in the employment statistics for these figures could also lead to a recovery. In case that this happens, we will witness a fully recovered US dollar.

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EUR/USD Discussions / EUR/USD Technical Analysis: July 13, 2017
« on: July 13, 2017, 04:36:21 PM »

The euro-dollar was able to clear the level 1.1488 followed by the strong data of the EMU production while the ECB Governing Council member, Ignazio Visco emphasized again that the European region should have a stronger expansionary policy.

The exchange rate had reversed its direction during the latter part of the session, then whipsawed after the testimony of Fed Chair Janet Yellen in front of Congress. The exchange rate further increased, however, failed to preserve its gains after an upward movement towards the 1.1489 region which is currently the resistance. The support of the pair can be found on the 10-day moving average at 1.1404 mark.

The momentum gained the neutral position while the MACD histogram is printed near the zero level and the index further prints in the black with a flat trajectory which indicates consolidation.
The rate consolidates continuously after the break out and hovered in the bull flag continuation pattern which is a respite that prompts higher.

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General Discussion / GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: July 11, 2017
« on: July 12, 2017, 10:34:08 AM »

The British pound attempted to soar against the Japanese yen but failed as it pulled back to the 147 level. The market has been advancing in the long term more like grinding and gain from small increments.

It seems that the market is going to decline for any particular period of time since the Bank of Japan will most likely maintain its low borrowing rates for long-term. Whilst the Bank of England might increase its rates in near-term and after some time, the price could break towards the 150 level. Currently, it is a little bit over extended laterally that makes grinding a way to gain impetus and proceed to the upper channel for long-term.

Buying dips would be an ideal to gain in short-term but restricted to not so good moves (20 to 30 pips is attainable). However, if it breaks lower than the 146 level then this could proceed lower towards the 145 handle which can be more supportive compared to the areas being tested as of the moment.

It may be a bit difficult to trade the GBP/JPY pair yet the market signals that they favor the uptrend.  Hence, it is best to hold shorting this pair especially since the 150 is being strongly resistive. However, if this has been gapped, the market could rally much higher for an extended period.

For now, the short-term profits in the market could get bigger once it gains momentum but it still requires more patience to trade this pair in the market. 

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AUD/USD Discussions / AUD/USD Technical Analysis: July 10, 2017
« on: July 10, 2017, 04:00:34 PM »

The main trend of the AUD/USD pair in the daily swing chart is moving in an uptrend. However, the momentum is pushing it to go lower. When the trade exceeds the .7712, this will shift the main trend to move up.

A trade at the .7571 level indicates the continuation of the downtrend and possibly towards the minor base at .7535 region. A breakdown to this level will shift the course of the minor trend to go down.

The main trend range between .7372 and .7712 with a retracement level at .7542 and .7502 as the next lower target. With the uptrend of the market,  the buyers will most likely return to the test zone. For short-term, the range is between .7712 and .7571 with the retracement area at .7642 and .7658 which is the next upside target. Sellers might counter the trend belligerently and attempt to create a secondary lower top in the next test.

The closing during Friday was positioned at .7600, similar to the price movement this morning. The direction of the AUD/USD pair highly depends on the trader’s sentiment to the downtrend angle at .7592.

When the .7592 is held, this signifies the presence of buyers in the market and could further go up with the potential targets at .7632, .7642, .7632 and .7658 levels. On the other hand, when the .7592 level is kept steady, this indicates the presence of sellers. The target level when the price moves to the downside with the initial target at .7571 then .7542 to .7535 levels.

Traders should monitor the angle at .7592. The reaction of traders will determine if buyers will enter the market or sellers will put in a selling pressure instead.

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