Author Topic: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart  (Read 31773 times)

Offline Andrea ForexMart

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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: August 30, 2017
« Reply #330 on: August 31, 2017, 12:22:01 PM »

The rates are still maintained despite high volatility during the Tuesday trading session. The volatility is not surprising as the market reacted to the speeches from Draghi and Yellen on Friday. The speeches finished late for the day when the U.K. market closed as well as on Monday which is a holiday in the U.S.

Volatility is already anticipated which is what happened yesterday. Furthermore, the monthly end currency flow added to it. It supported the pair to move higher over the 1.20 level as it moved towards 1.2070 prior to the U.S. session. Higher global risk also partly contributed to the movement which directly involves the U.S. as the DPRK persists to threaten with different missile tests. Nevertheless, the situation has been handled pretty well and the same time supported the dollar to strengthen in the later in the day.

There was a correction seen that further pushed the pair towards the 1.20 level that closed the day when it started. The movement occurred quite fastly as traders are anxious on how long the trend will last. They are also cautious and trying to see how long before the ECB will intervene in the event of strong euro. These have had a big impact on euro and there will most likely be choppiness for short-term.

For today, the preliminary GDP data and the ADP report from the U.S. are anticipated to be released today which could greatly affect the pair and monitor its impact on the increase of rates. This would also determine if it big enough for the Fed to proceed with a quick rate hike by the end of the year. Hence, volatility is already anticipated and the holiday period is about to end as the EUR/USD pair would have a big change in action for short-term.

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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: August 30, 2017
« Reply #330 on: August 31, 2017, 12:22:01 PM »

Offline Andrea ForexMart

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Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart
« Reply #331 on: September 07, 2017, 03:38:27 PM »
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: September 7, 2017

As the week begins, the EUR/USD was seen consolidating and trading in a tight range which continues in the past 24 hours. But it is possible to change its course after the next 24 hours since the markets will draw their attention towards the single European currency, also with the plan of the European Central Bank in the near term.

The euro-dollar pair hovered at the level of 1.19 in the following day, however, there are no hints of any specific trend. Generally, markets appeared to be in a consolidation mode because traders and investors are waiting for the situation to become normal and calm again.

The tension and global risks remain high as the market somewhat predicts for an approaching attack from the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. With this, the dollar weighed down with a lot of pressure since Monday.

However, the focus for this day could possibly be in the euro due to the announcement made by the ECB about interest rates which is followed by a press conference. The central bank planned to maintain the rates steady and this is what M. Draghi expected to say during the press con. Hence, this will determine the direction of the EUR in the short term.

The ECB is now very cautious about the strengthening of the euro as the bank failed to reverse or change the fundamentals and planning to put euro in a bid in order to limit the currency’s strength. If Draghi did not do so, then it is expected the EUR/USD will move under the 1.19 handle and drove near 1.18 in the near term. Otherwise, the pair will return to its highs at 1.2070 again.

Ultimately, there are no major releases from the United States or from the euro region. Therefore, the focus will turn to the developments in Korea, as well as to the ECB.

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Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart
« Reply #332 on: September 07, 2017, 04:07:20 PM »
USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: September 7, 2017

The U.S. dollar against the Japan yen was traded lower during the beginning of Wednesday session. Yet, the market has bounced off and almost kept the rate as it reached low levels at 108.441. For the week, the trading situation gives a similar outlook after the missile launch by North Korea over Japan.

The USD/JPY pair was seen positioning at 108.724 and declined by 0.078 or -0.07% at 10.21 GMT. The USD/JPY pair closed the session at 0.884 down by -0.81% on Tuesday.

The Forex pair dropped with the current tension with North Korea as well as the rhetorics from Fed speakers. Traders are getting anxious prior to the monetary policy decision of the European Central Bank on Thursday.

Investors keep on reacting to the happenings in the North Korea and the price movement of the safe haven assets. Moreover, the stock market compellingly suggests that traders are concerned with the minimal progress towards the lowering the threat of a nuclear war.

Traders have been anxious with the issue on North Korea especially since the next nuclear test will happen on Sunday. Across the globe, this act was being contradicted as the price movement in the stock market where more investors are being disappointed since there is lack of progress in controlling the situation.

The USD/JPY pair will most likely continue trading with the influence of the U.S. Treasury yields and opinion of investors. The price action of the U.S. Treasury yields which is supported by the economic data and Fed speakers. Reactions of investors are influenced by the geopolitical events about North Korea.

Some minor U.S. data such as Trade Balance, Final Services PMI and the Fed Beige Book and the major report on the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI will be released on Wednesday. The anticipated figure will be 55.8 and increased from 53.9.

The whole report may not be that relevant and move the pair. Also, the investors will center its attention on North Korea since this is unpredictable. Fears of uncertainty are reflected for the first time with investors who are taking off setting positions in the stock a market and place the money in safe haven assets. Traders should monitor for another stock sell-off for today.

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Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart
« Reply #333 on: September 15, 2017, 04:39:33 PM »
GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: September 15, 2017

The British pound moves sideways during the beginning of the Thursday session. This surged to the upper channel after the Bank of England hinted that there will be interest rate hikes soon.

Hence, the market will most likely proceed with buying on the lows and it may not be wise to short this pair for now. For long-term, the pair will try to reach the 150 handle and above. Selling will be difficult for this pair and the 145-level or lower will continue to support the market which gives a bit of a bullish pressure.

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Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart
« Reply #334 on: September 22, 2017, 01:32:36 PM »
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: September 22, 2017

The EUR/USD had a mixed performance during the daytime trading on Thursday, showing some choppiness without any hints on how to handle the dollar recovery. It happened after the FOMC meeting in which the Federal Reserve did not exclude chances for a rate increase in December and decided to begin the program to cut balance sheets. These combined announcements enabled to maintain the bid under the greenbacks, however, the trend of the EURUSD pair remained choppy to a certain extent.

Moreover, the single European currency weakened and moved below the 1.19 mark during the morning session, afterward, it started to recover and moved upwards since the US dollar weakened again over other selected currencies. With this, the euro was able to drive higher than the 1.19 level and currently trading in the 1.2950 area which continues to gain strength. It appeared that the pair would retrace its losses in the near term while the dollar bulls still having a tough time to generate strength recovery.

The USD failed to become well-composed in the past couple of days, as it loses its bullish gains. While the EUR successfully recovered due to the discussion about the continuous QE tapering in the market which is very visible to everyone.

In the near term, the euro is expected to remain in the bid as the pair test the range highs at 1.2070. The time for the dollar has not happened yet, therefore, bulls should be willing to wait for strong signals sent by the Fed regarding the rate hike, together with the ECB’s tapering talk and from that, we could expect for a reversal of fortune.

Ultimately, there are no major economic releases for today except the  speech of ECB President Mario Draghi which is anticipated during London hours. According to forecasts, Draghi will tackle about the monetary policy while the market is still searching for some insights about tapering, however, the ECB president is known for his inclination not to touch the monetary policy during this kind of meetings. Furthermore, it remains unclear if this will brought an impact towards the euro-dollar pair.


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Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart
« Reply #335 on: September 28, 2017, 06:06:54 PM »
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: September 28 2017

The Euro against the U.S. dollar persisted during yesterday session. It bounces off by just a few levels and it seems that the market did not pick up the momentum until it gets more conspicuous. Although, there are still evident signs of a rebound in the beginning of the trend.

There is a prediction for a rebound when the EUR/USD pair fails to break the 1.2070 area with certainty. The market has tried to break this level several times but they were unsuccessful up to now. The changes in the upcoming data are significant such as the CPI as this would reflect the performance in the previous months while the dollar needs a complete rebound which was supported by the Fed. Hence, the traders should be heedful about this.

Fed supported the trend following the FOMC announcement as there is a tendency for a rate hike in the last month of the year if the outcome of the data is positive. This is what the dollar bulls are looking for as they have been active for some time now. Currently, the euro is at an important support level and a rebound is anticipated while the dollar weakens for short-term to move it back higher than the 1.18 level.

There is no major news from the eurozone scheduled for today. On the other hand, the final GDP from the U.S. should be monitored by traders since this could cause some volatility. A strong surge of data would cause the dollar to proceed with its rebound then lower the pair towards 1.17 level.

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Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart
« Reply #336 on: October 02, 2017, 04:23:29 PM »
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 2, 2017

The GBP/USD pair showed some choppiness in the past couple of days without any definite direction. The British pound was able to recover in the previous weeks, considering the fact that it is one of the strongest currency in the market. However, the Sterling was also affected by the dollar buying, forcing the Cable pair for a correction over the 1.35 level to trade beneath the 1.34 region in the past few days. Previously, the pound-dollar pair failed to broke the 1.3420 area after certain attempts which the pair did during the USD weakening.

In case that this pattern keep on going, it would likely cause further weakness in the GBP and could push the pair downwards. Moreover, we are waiting for a bundle of data from the United States later this week, which could possibly manage the greenback well bid in the near-term. These events when combined would likely place the sterling in the pressured area in the short-term.

On one side, the sterling pound was supported by the Bank of England (BOE), as the bank did not lose the possibility for a rate hike despite the ongoing Brexit process. Primarily, the market expected that the BoE will remain quiet during this kind of precarious scenario but the most recent meeting of the UK central bank clearly announced that they will only take action if necessary. This has provided support to the GBP, considering that British government showed optimistic views regarding the retention of the free market access to the European Union.

Ultimately, the manufacturing PMI data from the United Kingdom and the United States which could probably enough volatility. While it is essential for the bulls to break 1.3420 mark in the near-term for the completion of an upward trend.

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Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart
« Reply #337 on: October 03, 2017, 05:45:29 PM »
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 3, 2017

The British pound against the U.S. dollar pair had a high volatility at times. A few days back, the bulls were dominating the market and various resistance levels were surpassed. This was supported by a strong data from the U.K. and moves from the both the Bank of England and the government of U.K. which further supported the British pound. This kept the pound afloat amid the uncertainty brought by the Brexit process and pushed the currency even much higher.

Last week, the pound is undergoing correction at a faster rate in reaction to the good performance in the past few weeks. The U.K. prime minister is saying that she anticipates the Brexit will be settled after a few more years which is not what the market is expecting whilst majority expects to it materialize sooner. There are also speculations that the government spearheaded by the Prime minister Theresa May will eventually collapse.

On the other hand, the Bank of England is uncertain on deciding its next move. Moreover, it seems that the data from the U.K. is also sliding down in the past few weeks with the manufacturing data from the UK yesterday clearly depicting that. This resulted in a decline of the GBP/USD pair and dropped more than 120 pips during the day while the dollar rallied dominating the market.

For today, the construction PMI data from the UK will be released but there’ll be no major data coming from the U.S. The dollar will continue to rise but poses a threat to change the trend. At the same time, this will keep the GBP/USD under pressure for the day as the market wait for a larger data to come out later in the week.

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Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart
« Reply #338 on: October 10, 2017, 03:49:14 PM »
NZD/USD Technical Analysis: October 10, 2017

There is volatility present in trading the NZD/USD pair as it reached a lower limit in the opening on Monday where this will be reversed and fill the gap and proceed with a decline again. There is a possibility for this to reach the level of 0.70 where there will most likely be a support level. This area has been supportive in the past which was also resistive and anticipates volatility around that number. Take into consideration that the New Zealand is highly sensitive to commodities as well as the global risk appetite. It can be noted that the stock market is performing well although, there is less liquidity in the New Zealand dollar compared to other currencies. Hence, there will most likely be more volatility than other markets.

It underwent a downtrend in the past few days which signifies the continuation of a bearish pressure. It’s too early to say if the market will break lower than 0.70 region and if it does, this would not be a good sign. Hereinafter, the market will look for the 0.68 level below as the next target support level based on the long-term charts.  Moreover, the Australian dollar is dropping which usually moves in the similar direction as the New Zealand dollar. It will either move up or be sold unless a breakout happens higher than the 0.7125 region and look at higher levels which is most likely above the 0.72 level. Volatility will not be surprising in this pair and seller will consider the riskier currencies in the present.

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Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart
« Reply #339 on: October 11, 2017, 05:59:00 PM »
GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: October 11, 2017

The British currency traded sideways versus the Japanese yen and continue to hold the 148 handle. This level has gained lots of attention lately and it seems ready to move from side to side, as of this writing. However, a break on top of the 140.50 region will push the markets to go above the 150 handle. This region acquired attention with longer-term considering it’s a large, round, psychologically significant number. A cut through over that area would enable the market to continue moving upwards in the longer-term and the target to reach the 155 mark eventually.

A pull back from that region could possibly drive the market near the 147 level below, which appears to be very supportive. With the given scenario, the market is required to search for buyers around that range. But a breakdown beneath that would likely descend to 145 handle which is a round number where traders are continuously involved in such target regions.

There is a tendency that the market would be highly sensitive to risk appetite and participants should be paying attention to stock markets because the pound-yen pair might ascend in case a rally occurs or decline upon the roll over. Moreover, volatility is projected to enter the market and the reason for the sideways trading and the short term is the expectations for further actions by the Fed Reserve. Generally, world markets are slightly overbought and it is helpful if the bullish pressure will keep on going.  In the meantime, traders should wait for signals.

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Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart
« Reply #340 on: October 13, 2017, 01:10:04 PM »
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 13, 2017

There is a consolidation in during the trading session of the EUR/USD pair as it fluctuates up and down for the day without specific trajectory. The Resistance area is found close to the 1.18880 and it cannot be determined yet the market will be able to break this area or its direction for short-term.

The price moved headed to the level mentioned and it seems that there will be a lot of selling to take place which would result in a minor correction. Although, there is choppiness present in the pair and it might be best to stay on the sidelines. The data from the U.S. particularly the PPI has no big impact on the movement of the pair and move sluggishly but steadfastly.

The dollar is moving behind with the NFP data came in weaker anticipated in the previous week. The FOMC minutes also gave a hawkish sentiment as awaited by the market. The trend is hinting for an uptrend of the EUR/USD pair to persist both for short and medium term while the question remains if the Federal Reserve will raise the rate for December and continue to affect the market.

Today, the market may get answers as the CPI data from the U.S. will be released later this day which put the Fed member at a worrisome state while dollar bulls are hoping for a positive output for today and keep open the possibility of a rate hike in December. Other than the CPI data, the retail sales data is also scheduled to be released for today which would greatly influence the short-term activity of the pair.

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Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart
« Reply #341 on: October 17, 2017, 04:57:46 PM »
USD/CAD Technical Analysis: October 17, 2017

During the daytime trading on Monday, the American dollar traded sideways versus the Loonie dollar, followed by a break through the 1.25 handle. Eventually, the markets contained high volatility but the positive thing about this move is the reversed flow against the oil sector. The oil markets tend to rally as well as the U.S dollar but this appeared to be unusual which could give a negative sign for the CAD.

The 1.25 region below is projected to continue its attractiveness for the price but there is a possibility for the rally to resume according to the skeptical actions by the Canadian dollar.
A break over the 1.2250 mark even on the daily close will enable the market to keep on moving upwards or may be an attempt to reach the 1.2750 mark.

The markets would certainly be volatile due to the instability of oil industry along with some back and forth movements. Considering the massive volume of volatility, it is much preferred to gradually establish a position.

A break down underneath the 1.24 mark does not necessarily indicate a bearish tone again since dealing with the recent action seems difficult. While the markets would likely try to generate some kind of base. Moreover, the oil markets are moving nearer to the massive resistance which could further provide lots of bearish pressure towards the Loonies.

Take note that the Bank of Canada increased its interest rate and suddenly mentioned that the rate hikes should be considered as automatic. With this regard, the market appears to completely turn around against the CAD.

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Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart
« Reply #342 on: October 17, 2017, 06:04:52 PM »
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 17, 2017

The British pound against the U.S. dollar has touched on the level of 1.3300 during the Monday session yesterday. It dropped along the trend and declined as the dollar gains strength during this period of time. The pair was not that influenced following the release of a mixed data from the U.S. on Friday. Although the happening on Monday did had a minor effect to the pair.

It is assumed that the current stand of the U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May would have an impact on the currency to the Brexit talks in Brussels but it did not go this way. Looking to the major reports, there will be several data scheduled to be publicized this week which includes the retail sales data and the inflation data. The market is about to position themselves considering the news on Monday which induced choppiness and weakened the market as seen yesterday.

Looking back on Friday session, it seems that the market has put aside the mixed data and rally at a higher price compared to almost all currencies. This was triggered but the reports where the candidate John Taylor was supported by U.S. President Trump to replace the current Fed Chair, Janet Yellen. He is recognized to be hawkish and has favored rate hikes at multiple events and if in case he was appointed, this would have a good effect to the U.S. dollar. Consequently, investors have begun positioning their assets which strengthened the dollar in the latter part of yesterday’s trading. 

For today, the CPI inflation data from the UK as well as the scheduled speech of the BOE Governor Carney which are presumed to cause volatility in the GBP/USD pair. A breakout at the level of 1.33 would result in a surge of 200 pips and could work similarly when it reaches the level of 1.3200 and maintains the consolidation.

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Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart
« Reply #343 on: October 19, 2017, 02:48:44 PM »
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 19, 2017

The pound-dollar pair continued to move upwards after the weakening of the dollar across the board in the past 24 hours. We believe that there are no fundamentals that drive the market which caused the U.S. dollar to weaken, hence, it all boils down to the condition during the second half of the month accompanied by disappointing news from all over the world. Generally, the main focus is turned to the positioning and flows rather than the fundamental news.

Moreover, there are reports that calling UK Prime Minister Theresa May to stop the Brexit negotiations without any settled trade agreements. This is the ongoing agreement about Brexit since last week. So far, there have been barely some progress with the process, showing some strength and getting nearer to the end of the talks while PM Theresa May is planning to fly to Brussels in order to resume the discourse and bring out a resolution. The appeal for a no deal and demanding May to leave the talks are much preferred compared to anything else for this current time.

The United Kingdom could decide to work out some good deal which should offer justice both on the European Union and the Britain since there is some block as of this moment. Eventually, the talks could possibly continue to gain traction which is a positive factor the sterling pound.

Ultimately, the British retail sales figures and American unemployment claims data are expected to be published within this day. The retail sales are projected to contribute volatility to the Cable pair, considering the upcoming statistics from the UK were sluggish in the past couple of weeks that prompted the market to be very cautious since this data is capable of identifying the trend of the British currency throughout the entire week.

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Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart
« Reply #344 on: October 20, 2017, 04:12:30 PM »
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: October 20, 2017

The British pound traded higher in the morning since the Brexit process finally started to gain traction. As the talks started a few weeks ago, the progress made seems delayed while there are some rumors about the "no deal" because the United Kingdom wanted to move away from the negotiations and finalize the Brexit without any engagement with the European Union. However, this not an ideal method and yet still considered and caused the sterling to remain under pressure.

The slight development coupled with the statements of Chancellor Angela Merkel and UK Prime Minister Theresa May encouraged the markets and lifted the GBP/USD pair, breaking through the 1.32 level within a short period. But the flow of events completed and lasted until London session only, followed by the selling of the GBP and buying of the USD. Although the fundamentals did not go wrong relative to the UK, the selling shows the trend was a trick and the GBPUSD was pushed lower.

The Cable further weakened during the first part of the day as the greenback was able to increase amid the approval of the tax reform bill. The completion of this bill is very important for US President Donald Trump and his team for its purpose to support the American economy as well as to prevent further disappointments. As Trump successfully completed the bill despite some augurs for other bills on the process, the market still liked the outcome and decided to buy the bucks. With this, the pair weakened and attempts to reach the 1.31 region at this moment. It is expected that the impact of this news will keep on dominating the markets until the closing of the day, but the dollar gained strength. It is necessary to place the Cable in the pressured area and search for the support at 1.3060 mark. There are no statistics scheduled to be issued from the US or the UK for this day, hence, this day is focused on the US dollar.