Author Topic: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart  (Read 23843 times)

Offline Andrea ForexMart

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USD/CAD Technical Analysis: May 15, 2017
« Reply #285 on: May 15, 2017, 04:59:42 PM »

The USD/CAD moves like from pillar to post last Friday and continuously grinding above 1.37 handle. Meanwhile, the oil markets appeared to be disorganized as of the moment. We are directly standing above the channel while a pullback is inessential, however, when this price movement occurred then a move to the lower area would likely follow. Possibly down to the region 1.35 and moving through the mark 1.3250. Contrarily, a break over the channel, particularly in the 1.38 handle, will cause the market to trail atop of the level 1.40. Mainly, the oil markets should be given much consideration as it extensively weighs to the Canadian dollar.

Moreover, the commodity-linked pair is expected to be choppy but it looks like that the oil is in action at this time. The housing market in Canada shows some uncertainties while concerns may arise since the history of the US housing bubble were still remembered clearly by many traders.

The markets should consider sustaining a volatile session, however, the general uptrend will continue to drive through the upside in the longer-term. It further allows the longer-term and steady traders to acquire gains on top of the 1.40 range.

It is recommended to seek for pullbacks which provide value upon getting the chance as the greenbacks continued to be favored by the North American currency.

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USD/CAD Technical Analysis: May 15, 2017
« Reply #285 on: May 15, 2017, 04:59:42 PM »

Offline Andrea ForexMart

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USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: May 16, 2017
« Reply #286 on: May 16, 2017, 05:52:56 PM »

   The USD/JPY pair experienced a turnaround during yesterday’s trading session after a sudden high demand for high-risk assets manifested during the earlier parts of the Monday session. The JPY was initially boosted by flight-to-safety buys but immediately disappeared as market investors chose to shift their focus to the surge in US equity markets. The USD/JPY pair closed down yesterday’s session at 113.787 points after increasing by +0.41% or 0.464 points.

   Investors were generally worried with regards to Trump’s unexpected firing of FBI Director James Comey, the cyber-attack which made headlines last Friday, and the ballistic missile launch from the DPRK. The currency pair then began to hit rock-bottom after traders were practically unresponsive to these recent developments. This price action from the USD/JPY shows that investors might have become somewhat oblivious to these said developments. In fact, the cyber-attack was able to benefit the market after tech giants such as Cisco posted gains following the said online attacks.

   For today’s trading session, investors will be waiting for the release of industrial production data, mortgage delinquencies data, building permits, capacity utilization data, and housing starts data from the US economy. If this specific set of data comes out as a market disappointment, then the chance of the Fed implementing more rate hikes in the future might be lessened, although the June rate hike has been pretty much priced in by the market already. In any case, this could also cause the US dollar to drop further in value.

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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: May 17, 2017
« Reply #287 on: May 17, 2017, 03:13:44 PM »

   The sterling pound’s bulls experienced a very harrowing trading day yesterday after the GBP/USD pair was unable to make any significant progress even after all the other major currency pairs were able to take advantage of the greenback going on backfoot. The cable pair remained within a very limited trading range and was unable to even advance towards its range highs, much less surpass this particular range. Several geopolitical issues has caused the dollar to drop, however, the GBP/USD pair did not have enough fuel for it to actually gain from the dollar losses.

   The US housing data fell short of initial market expectations, and this proved to be somewhat damaging for the interest rate bulls who had already priced in the possibility of a June rate hike from the Fed. However, the market was more affected by news  that Trump had apparently leaked top-secret information to the Russian government straight from the Oval Office, in addition to reports that Trump has apparently been caught dipping his fingers into a certain continuing investigation. These series of events triggered a massive dollar selloff, and while other major currencies such as the EUR were able to make use of this particular development, the sterling pound barely moved from its original position. The GBP/USD pair only slightly advanced from 1.2900 points and is now placed at just under 1.2950 points and does not look like it could induce a rally anytime soon. This is an indicator of just how weak the currency pair as of the moment and it could only be a matter of time before things take a turn for the worse.

   For today’s trading session, there are no expected releases coming from the UK economy although international geopolitical events could possibly dominate the market for today. However, the GBP/USD pair is not expected to exhibit that much volatility given its recent weakness, and the pair should start a rally soon in order to placate any risk of the pair’s current standing taking a turn for the worse.

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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: May 19, 2017
« Reply #288 on: May 19, 2017, 05:25:37 PM »

   The USD/CAD pair continues to exhibit a very steady trading manner during the previous session and seems to be largely unaffected by the currently very high volatility levels in  the market. In spite of the recent turmoil affecting the US government and a spike in oil prices, the loonie seems to be unaffected by this and remains trading on both sides of 1.3600 points in a very choppy price action with no indications of a possible change in direction.

   The recent surge in oil prices has kept the USD/CAD pair buoyant, and this is why the currency pair has stayed within the reach of 1.3550 points. The pair’s consolidation is expected to continue until the next few days since oil prices have already increased in the short-term. Meanwhile, the greenback could possibly backfoot across the board since the possibility of a June Fed rate hike has dimmed somewhat. If this indeed happens, then the 1.3550 range will become a very critical region to surpass and until the USD/CAD pair goes past this range, then it can be safe to say that the pair’s uptick is most likely to remain in the short-term. Otherwise, the currency pair could possibly revert to its previous range and could resort to a bearish consolidating price action.

   For today’s session, the Canadian economy will be releasing its CPI data and retail sales data, both of which are expected to induce volatility in the pair’s price action.

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NZD/USD Technical Analysis: May 22, 2017
« Reply #289 on: May 22, 2017, 05:55:46 PM »

The New Zealand currency experienced a volatile session amid Friday trades as it broke on top of the 0.69 handle. A grasp to the level 0.6950 was highly resistive which is better than all the range for the previous weeks.

A break on top this region is considered significant looking forward through the top of 0.70 mark, this also allows the market to drive higher.

Moreover, the market would likely maintain its volatility and choppiness. The kiwi was highly sensitive against the risk appetite which appeared to be unpredictable at this moment. With that being said, the thought that the NZD will be one of the complicated currencies to trade is possible. The “risk on” sentiment has returned in the market favoring the profits for the buyers.

Moreover, the market will remain choppy and volatile for the next hours and the 0.6880 region below contains a massive support.

The “buy on the dips” will further extend, however, headwinds on top of it are within reach. In this case, the market has to provide lots of trading opportunities intended for the scalpers but the short-term traders will remain to draw attention towards this.

There will be some struggle that longer-term traders will experience, in order to search for a suitable position. Therefore, holding a trade for a lengthy period is difficult as there could probably some real size ongoing.

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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: May 23, 2017
« Reply #290 on: May 23, 2017, 06:38:38 PM »

   The USD/CAD pair has been exhibiting a very disappointing price action ever since it was able to test its range highs at 1.3800 points during the start of this month. The currency pair has been suffering from the repercussions brought about by the greenback’s weakness and the strength of the loonie which was mostly due to an oil price surge. This oil price increase was able to cover up the actual occurrences within the Canadian economy and has provided enough leverage for the loonie to advance, and this is why the USD/CAD pair has been consistently dropping value during the last two weeks.

   As of the moment, the currency pair is now within a very critical region of 1.3500 points, where it continues to look very weak. The weakness of the greenback has been the dominant market trend as of the moment, with the dollar getting adversely affected by Trump’s political woes, which in turn has affected the US economy as well as its monetary policy. The market had initially priced in a rate hike this coming June, but with the recent slew of dismal events, it looks like the market’s players might have to put off this interest rate hike at least for now. In addition, the rising oil prices has helped the loonie to retain its positive image amidst Canadian banking concerns, wherein the majority of Canadian banks have been given the thumbs-down by ratings agencies. The loonie strength has also helped to offset the concerns surrounding the HCG and the housing sector.

   For today’s session, there are no major news releases coming from both the US and the Canadian economy, although some Fed officials will be making statements today with regards to the US monetary policy. All these are expected to add downward pressure on the USD/CAD pair and cause the pair to test its support levels.

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USD/CAD Technical Analysis: May 23, 2017
« Reply #291 on: May 24, 2017, 03:53:01 PM »

The USDCAD experience volatility during Monday’s session and had an attempt to rally, however, it made a reversal plunging under the region 1.35. The pair is relative to the crude oil markets and received a significant support upon the opening, while the OPEC seems to move nearer the deal regarding production cuts.

Having said that, the greens decline versus its Canadian counterpart which is the proxy of currency traders against the oil markets.

The ability to break down around it will allow the market to reach the 1.34 handle. However, a cut through the top of 1.3550 area will touch above the range of 1.36. This range is significant for the longer-term charts, and a broke within that area enable the market to drive upwards.

The volatile market is expected to continue considering the current condition of the oil coupled with Canada’s housing that brought an impact as well.

Sellers have executed a significant action as well which could give a chance to break 1.3550. But there is no such opportunity to initiate a long move, except that the higher timeframes (daily or weekly charts) could obtain a longer-term signal

According to forecasts, rallies will resume and will be providing opportunities to sell towards a market that experienced a lower grind in the previous sessions. Lastly, a gapped in the upside has to be accompanied by the oil markets that were rolled over.

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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: May 26, 2017
« Reply #292 on: May 26, 2017, 04:02:16 PM »

   The USD/CAD pair has been projected to be highly dependent on the state of oil prices as well as the OPEC meeting held yesterday, and in fact, the loonie skyrocketed in value as the OPEC meeting concluded yesterday’s meeting on a somewhat dismal note as far as the markets were concerned.

   The market had initially hoped that the OPEC members would approve an extension of the production cuts since the majority of them are expecting deeper production cuts in the future. However, what the OPEC members did was to extend the production cut deal for another 9 months, with both Iran and Libya given an approval to maintain its current status quo. This turned out to be a huge disappointment for the market in general, and this caused oil prices to drop after a large selloff occurred. This was then especially unfavorable for the Canadian dollar, particularly for the Canadian economy as its fate relies on oil prices. As of the moment, the USD/CAD pair has reverted by 80 pips as the loonie starts to drop in value. The currency pair was also propped up even more by the dollar strength and now the pair is back at its support-turned-resistance level of 1.3500 points. The market will now be monitoring how this pair closes down this week’s session since if it manages to close down at over 1.3500 points, then this is an indicator that the bulls have regained control of the pair and the USD/CAD could possibly be poised for more increases. On the other hand, if the pair closes down at under 1.3500 points, then this means that the bears are now dominating the pair and the market might have to brace themselves for more selling at least in the short-term.

   The US economy will be releasing its durable goods data and its Preliminary GDP data within the day, although traders are advised to sit back and wait for the session to close down before making any significant moves.

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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: May 26, 2017
« Reply #293 on: May 26, 2017, 04:17:58 PM »

   The strength of the greenback has been the dominant market trend during the previous trading session. In addition, the bulls of the GBP/USD pair are also having a hard time with regards to keeping the value of the cable pair afloat, which is seen on how the bulls had repeatedly attempted and failed to break through 1.3030 points even though the USD has clearly dropped in value. This development shows just how the bears are slowly gaining the upper hand with regards to taking control of the cable pair.

   But on the bright side, the drop in the cable pair’s value was not as much of a crash as initially expected since the pair’s drop has been somewhat slow and steady. But then again the corrections of the pair is now starting to get more significant, while its reversions are becoming more and more shallow, which is an indication that the pair’s bears are indeed taking over the currency pair. The GBP/USD pair was unable to even reach the 1.3000 range as the greenback starts to regain more strength due to the market re-pricing the interest rate hike next month.

   For today’s trading session, the market is expecting the release of the Preliminary GDP data and the durable goods data from the US, while the British economy is not scheduled to have any economic releases for today. The GBP/USD pair is then expected to remain under pressure for the entirety of today’s trading session.

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EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: May 26, 2017
« Reply #294 on: May 26, 2017, 05:01:30 PM »

The Euro against the British pound had a very choppy trading during the Thursday session as the market is attempting to push the price higher which could eventually break later on. There are also some pullbacks seen in the short-term which supports the current trend and gather enough impetus and volume to reach higher levels. If the price breaks higher than the 0.8675 region, the current trend will move upward reaching the 0.88 level that is relevant for long-term as shown in the charts.

Those reversals would gain more appeal to the buyers as it closes near the 0.86 support level which was supportive in the past. There’s an option to wait for a breakout first to lift it higher which implies bullishness in the trend which is beneficial for buyers.

The market is choppy influenced by the two economies and commentaries from both countries bringing a lot of noise in the market. Yet, the trend remains resilient as it is directed upwards although there are pullbacks every now and then. If the price breaks lower than the 0.8550 region, the market is anticipated to roll over. This is most probably because of major events which are usually unexpectedly fast when it happen. Overall, the buyers seem to dominate the market.

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GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: May 29, 2017
« Reply #295 on: May 29, 2017, 03:44:52 PM »

The British pound paired against the Japanese yen declined during the Friday trading session following the release of election polls much tighter than expected in Britain. Everybody expects the political route the way forward when it comes to leaving the European Union still leaves some doubt in the minds of the people.

The pair is usually sensitive to risk appetite that worsens the selling pressure. As the price breaks through the 143 level, the price would decline much lower towards the 142 handle as the market reaches to the support below. If the price surges from here, this would open more selling opportunities.

Traders should monitor the global risk appetite including the stock market, futures market and the condition of the British government and its currency, as these would affect the pair. As of now, the pair is moving downtrend searching for a significant level at 1.2750.

If the pair is able to stay in the upper region, the current trend could be reversed to find support below. Alternately, the price could decline towards the next significant support at 140 handle. Buyer should look to the long-term charts before placing orders. Overall, the market will be highly volatile and traders might want to consider major pairs related to the British currency for a faster turn around.

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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: May 30, 2017
« Reply #296 on: May 30, 2017, 02:18:06 PM »

   It was a market holiday on several parts of the world yesterday, and the absence of market volatility due to the said holidays was felt throughout the market during the previous session as most of the major currency pairs consolidated and traded within a very limited range yesterday. EUR/USD traders had only one thing to look forward to during the duration of yesterday’s session, which is Draghi’s speech wherein he made his usual statements on the lessening of downward pressure on the EU economy, although this had little effect on the EUR/USD pair’s current standing.

   What affected the value of the currency pair was the news that Greece is now prepared to abdicate the following bailout fund if the EU will still be unable to reach middle ground as far as the conditions were concerned. This then caused the EUR/USD pair to correct towards 1.1120 points during the latter part of yesterday’s session. As of the moment, the market is still experiencing very low liquidity levels as the Chinese market remains to be on a holiday, and as such, traders are advised to take all market movements today with a grain of salt. In addition, the market will also be experiencing month-end flows before this week comes to a close, and this is why traders should take it easy in order to prepare themselves for the onslaught of economic data later this week. The Fed rate hike in June is still not fully priced in, and unless the market gets some sort of conclusion with regards to the Fed’s next move, then it will be very hard to determine the short-term price actions of the EUR/USD pair. But the recent correction of the EUR/USD pair should be taken only as a mere correction instead of a full-on trend change as corrections are deemed as normal in every currency pair.

   For today’s session, the market is expecting the release of Germany’s Preliminary CPI data, as well as the PCE data from the US economy. The PCE data will be closely watched as this will indicate whether the Fed will be indeed pushing through with its rate hike or otherwise and could possibly induce a lot of volatility into the market within the day.

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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: May 30, 2017
« Reply #297 on: May 30, 2017, 03:54:17 PM »

   In a sea of otherwise very inactive major currency pairs, the GBP/USD pair seems to be the only pair which has gained significant volatility during yesterday’s trading session. The cable pair shot up by over 40 pips in spite of a market holiday across several locations throughout the world such as the US, UK, and China. The lack of market activity yesterday gave the pair’s traders an opportunity to induce a bounce in the pair although it was unable to offset the 150-pip crash of the cable pair during the session last Friday. In spite of this recent reversal, the GBP/USD pair is expected to remain trading in a very weak manner as a lot of economic factors seem to be going against the sterling pound at least for the time being.

   Members of the ruling political party in Scotland have recently outlined the possibility of a Scottish referendum if ever they get reinstated in the Scottish government. But then again there have been recent rumors swirling around with regards to the ongoing Brexit negotiations, specifically on how the negotiations will pan out once the snap elections in June come to a close. In addition, the results of the recent opinion polls are showing that Theresa May lacked the expected lead in the upcoming snap elections, which puts May in danger since anything less than a landslide victory for the UK PM will make this particular risk of hers in order to establish herself in the international scene a failure. The GBP/USD pair is also currently struggling to surpass 1.3030 points, and all of these factors have turned against the cable pair and has put a significant amount of downward pressure on the pair.

   For today’s session, there are no expected releases from the UK economy although the US will be releasing its PCE data, which will be closely monitored by the market as this will be indicating whether the June rate hike will indeed push through or otherwise. If this data disappoints the  market, then this will not bade well for the GBP/USD pair.

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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: May 30, 2017
« Reply #298 on: May 30, 2017, 05:08:34 PM »

   The USD/CAD pair remained in consolidation mode as the market lacked significant volatility due to market holidays in China, US, and the UK. The loonie remains trading under the very important trading range of 1.3500 points, mostly due to a steadying in oil prices in addition to a strong greenback value.

   The currency pair broke through 1.3500 points last week after a surge in oil prices. Although the oil bulls were very disappointed with regards to the results of the recently-concluded OPEC meeting, the loonie received some well-needed pressure from this drop in oil prices, thereby triggering the USD/CAD pair to revert to 1.3500 points and closed down last week at  just under this critical trading level. The CAD is also currently being propped up by a series of very positive data from the Canadian economy, with this economic improvement getting some acknowledgement from the Bank of Canada in its rate statement during the past week. In fact, the BoC has already decided to put its rates on hold instead of implementing a rate cut due to this consistent improvement in the country’s economic state, which could then lead to a possible rate hike if the country’s economy continues to be positive.

   For today’s session, the US economy will be releasing its PCE data which is expected to clarify the country’s inflation status in addition to shedding some light on whether the Fed will be indeed implementing a rate hike next month. If the PCE comes out as negative, then the USD/CAD pair could possibly correct further towards 1.3400 points.

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GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: May 31, 2017
« Reply #299 on: May 31, 2017, 06:04:38 PM »

The national currency of Britain weakened amid Tuesday trading, however, it had a significant rebound from the area 141.80 reaching the 143 handle. A break over the daily highs would direct the market in a higher position, as it may reach 144 level without plenty of issues.

Generally, the Sterling holds a significant amount of reversal throughout the day since the Cable further exhibited active signs. This could probably be a correction for the oversold condition where the GBP sees itself, after the election polling it became tighter exceeding its expectations in the past. Moreover, the figures decreased inclined with the conservative administration. Having said that, the uptrend will resume eventually, hence buying is highly preferred on the gap above the highest.

Remember that the pairs relative to Japanese yen appeared to very sensitive to risk. This could be considered as one of the most delicate pairs, the simultaneous rally of the stock market is a big help that could move 100 pips in an instant.

Either way, a cut through underneath 142.50 region would allow the market to touch 142 handle once again.

The daily candle begins to display a bullish stance which signals that buyers will return, nevertheless, it could be best that you’ll wait for the market to reveal hints to initiate the buying, as a means to safeguard your account against an extensive volatility.