Author Topic: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart  (Read 10205 times)

Offline Andrea ForexMart

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Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart
« Reply #255 on: March 29, 2017, 02:30:18 PM »
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 28, 2017

   The EUR/USD pair crashed during the previous session as the pair corrected its current upmove which has been the pairís trend for the past few weeks. The USD finally recovered across the board, resulting to sellers taking advantage of this occurrence and selling the EUR. The dollar strength has helped to propel the pairís value towards 1.0800 points, therefore eradicating the pairís previous gains which was made last Monday.

   Because of this, traders are now mulling over the fact that the EUR/USD pair could be in for more corrections as the sessions progresses. However, the market has no choice but to wait and see how the pairís price action turns out in the next few days, particularly if whether the pair would continue its current trend of correction or if the pair backs down as it approaches its support barrier at 1.0800, where the currency pair is situated as of the moment. The USD remained weak last Friday up until Monday due to the repeated failed attempts of the Trump administration to pass the healthcare bill. However, the White House is now trying to make another attempt at passing the said bill after Republicans reached out to like-minded Democrats. In addition, the US economy continues to release a slew of strong economic data and this has caused the EUR/USD pair to fall further during the US trading session.

    For todayís session, there are no expected releases coming from both the EU and the US economy. However, the month-end flows are expected to come anytime soon as March comes to a close, and since the USDís strength is expected to persist today, the EUR/USD pair would continue to remain under pressure with the 1.0800 range remaining the essential barrier for the currency pair.

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Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart
« Reply #255 on: March 29, 2017, 02:30:18 PM »

Offline Andrea ForexMart

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Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart
« Reply #256 on: March 29, 2017, 04:08:38 PM »
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: March 29, 2017

   The GBP/USD had a very disastrous trading day yesterday as the currency pair crashed by over 200 pips following the USDís recovery, as well as the nearing invocation of Article 50. A lot of market players have been saying that today will be a very interesting day for the GBP/USD pair as the Article 50 will be invoked later today, which will mark the start of the Brexit process and basically a point of no return for the British economy.

   The GBP/USD pair has seen a consistent buildup of shorts during the past week as the market awaits a very large drop today. However, the value of the GBP/USD pair is also consistently moving higher and increasing towards 1.2600 points. This is a potentially very risky combination and the effect of this combo manifested yesterday, wherein both the USDís strength and Brexit-related concerns caused the currency pair to drop from its range highs of 1.2600 towards 1.2400 points, where the pair is currently trading. The USD recovered amid possibilities that the Trump admin might again try to pass the healthcare bill by seeking help from like-minded Democrats. Theresa May will also be signing the order for Article 50, and it will be interesting to see how the sterling pound will react to this most recent development in the UK economy.

   For todayís session, there are no major releases from both the US and the UK economy and this is why the market will be mostly focusing on the invocation of Article 50 and the subsequent reaction of the GBP/USD pair following the said invocation.

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Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart
« Reply #257 on: March 31, 2017, 02:14:25 PM »
USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: March 30, 2017

   The USD/JPY pair dropped in value during the previous session in spite of the US dollarís strong outlook against other major currencies. The ambiguity in the US equity markets, as well as weak Treasury yields might have contributed to the weakness in the currency pair. A lot of investors are now going back to the safety of the Japanese yen, mostly because of the alarming concerns with regards to the French elections, Brexit negotiations, and Trumpís frustrated attempts to fulfill his campaign promises. The USD/JPY closed down the previous session at 111.042 points after decreasing by 0.083 points or-0.07%.

   For Thursdayís session, investors will be waiting for the release of the US GDP data as well as jobless claims data, in addition to comments from Fed officials including Kaplan, Dudley, Williams, and Mester. But of these four officials, the statement coming from Dudley is touted as the most interesting due to his position in the FOMC as a permanent voter. Dudley is expected to discuss topics such as the Fedís monetary policy and the present financial climate of the US economy.

   For the meantime, it seems as if the Fed and bond investors have contrasting views with regards to the path of US interest rates. This could be partly attributed to bond investors overvaluing the Trump administrationís ability to help prop up the economy by way of highly-aggressive economic policies. The USD/JPY pair could receive additional support if the Republicans would manage to convince investors that they can actually turn Trumpís proposals into actual laws. However, any additional doubts with regards to Trumpís ability to fulfill his role as President could induce additional selling pressure.

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Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart
« Reply #258 on: March 31, 2017, 05:43:15 PM »
USD/CAD Technical Analysis: March 30, 2017

The commodity-linked pair is confined to a familiar range yesterday. The price was positioned in the middle points of  1.3400 and 1.3350 within the day.
The overnight recovery slowed down in the earlier trades as the spot attained the channelís upper limit.

The morning session triggered renewed bearish tone. The greenbacks dropped sharply near the lower limit eliminating its gains throughout the night. Sellers unsuccessfully move downwards and hovered in the range.

In the 4-hour chart, the spot was sandwiched in the 100 and 50-EMA during the first part of the day. Meanwhile, the 50-EMA drove higher, 100-EMA shifted down and the 200-EMA preserved a bullish pattern.

Resistance is at 1.3400, support holds 1.3330 mark.

The MAcd indicator stayed on its previous level, favoring strength for the buyers. The RSI oscillator descended.

As mentioned in the same timeframe, technicals confirm a downwards continuation to 1.3330.

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Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart
« Reply #259 on: April 04, 2017, 05:32:50 PM »
NZD/USD Technical Analysis: April 3, 2017

On Friday, the New Zealand currency was kept intact below the selling pressure on the back of the sluggish business confidence released by ANZ.

The suffering of kiwi extended its softening until Friday. The sellers ran out of steam despite maintaining the control and breaking under the level 0.7000. Moreover, they were able to drove the NZD/USD lower.

During the morning, the pair traded in a tight range, viewed in the middle points of 0.7000 and 0.6980.

According to the 4-hour chart, the spot crossed downwards to the 50-EMA and resumed its development under the moving averages. The 50 and 200-EMAs continued to move down while the 100-EMA steered higher.

Resistance touched the region 0.7000, support made an entry at 0.6950 mark.

The MACD weakened indicating strength for the sellers. In case the histogram stayed within the positive zone, the position of the buyers will strengthen. The RSI indicator is in the oversold levels.

The price was stuck in a range in order to get some steam used for further activities. There is a possibility of minor correction. Having broken the 0.7000, the radar will prompt 0.7050 level.

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Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart
« Reply #260 on: April 04, 2017, 06:54:41 PM »
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: April 4, 2017

   The USD/CAD pair had a fairly good trading session yesterday as it tested its range highs and is now trading at just under its range highs. The USD/CAD is expected to remain within the 1.3300-1.3400 region as of the moment and this was very evident during yesterdayís session. The market is now waiting for the string of economic data set to be released within this week. The market is now in a ranging and consolidation mood as traders prepare themselves for the possible repercussions of this said release of various economic data.

   Oil prices dropped a bit below $51 yesterday, which is one of the main reasons behind the sudden weakness in the Canadian dollar. The Canadian economy is highly dependent on oil prices and as such, an increase in oil prices would mean an increase in the CAD and vice versa. And since oil prices dropped yesterday, this resulted to a weak CAD as well and caused the USD/CAD pair to go above 1.3350 points before moving towards its range highs of 1.3400 points. The currency pair was then met with a lot of selloffs, and although yesterday was a generally very dismal trading session, volatility levels are expected to increase today as several economic data are scheduled to be released within the week.

   The Canadian Trade Balance Data will be released today, and the market will be monitoring this reading since this is a very essential economic basis for the Canadian economy especially due to its trade relationship with US. This is expected to increase volatility in the pair and could cause the USD/CAD to break through 1.3400 and could even reach 1.3500 points.


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Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart
« Reply #261 on: April 05, 2017, 06:56:54 PM »
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: April 5, 2017

   The EUR/USD pair is still trading within a very limited range, although the pairís bulls have somewhat managed to maintain its hold on the currency pair in spite of the pairís inability to move in any definite direction for quite a while now. The pairís bulls were initially expected to surrender its gains in order to enable the EUR to advance towards 1.0500 points at least prior to the FOMC meeting, but so far this has not yet occurred and it is possible that the minutes will be released with the EUR/USD pair still trapped within its current trading range.

   The market was taken by surprise yesterday as Fed member Lacker tendered his resignation after admitting that he had leaked top-secret information with regards to the 2012 FOMC meeting to a certain financial institution. Lacker has also stated that the firmís analysts had the said information but regardless of Lackerís manipulation of the said statement, it remains clear that he has illegally leaked confidential information and subsequently resigned when the said scheme was revealed. The USD had surprisingly no reaction to to this particular news once it was released.

   However, during todayís session, the USD backtracked across the board as the EUR/USD pair surged from 1.0650 points and traded very near its range highs of 1.0680 points. As of the moment, the market is now in a consolidating move as a lot of economic data are expected to be released later today. The ADP Employment Change data will be released today, which is an important piece of economic news since this is largely considered as a basis for the result of the NFP report. The US Manufacturing PMI data will also be released, followed by the FOMC minutes towards the close of the NY session. A volatility surge is expected prior to the release of the FOMC minutes and as such, traders are advised to tread very carefully with regards to trading with the EUR/USD pair. The pairís bulls are most likely to dominate the pair and could enable the EUR/USD pair to inch higher during todayís series of sessions.

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Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart
« Reply #262 on: April 06, 2017, 03:39:11 PM »
USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: April 5, 2017

   The USD/CAD pair briefly made it towards 1.3400 points and even managed to surpass this region following a series of very dismal economic readings from the Canadian economy. However, the advancement of the Canadian dollar was almost immediately met with tremendous pressure from sellers, causing the CAD to retreat towards 1.3400 points. Analysts are now saying that unless the USD/CAD pair manages to surpass the large-scale selling at 1.3500 points, then the currency pair would be unable to make any significant progress as of now. But the pairís bulls have yet to reveal how they plan to handle this dilemma in the pair as the USD is expected to be more level in the next few days on the back of an increase in oil prices.

   The 1.3500 region has proven to be very crucial for the USD/CAD pair since the currency pair has been unable to overcome this pair for several times in a row. The currency pair would have to have large-scale buys in order to push past through this region and reach 1.4000 points. As of the moment, the Canadian economy has been throwing up some fairly decent economic data, although the Canadian trade balance data had somewhat paled and could be a precursor to a dismal future for the countryís economy. The trade balance data was at a negative while the market was expecting a positive reading, and this basically means that the countryís imports and exports are most likely to suffer in the long run.

   However, the increase in oil prices could possibly provide a short-term breather for the Canadian economy, and since the USD is expected to experience short-term consolidations, the USD/CAD pair would most likely follow this particular trend and consolidate within 1.3300-1.3500 points. However, the pair is still not strong enough to surpass 1.3500 in the near future.

   For todayís session, there are no releases from the Canadian economy but the US will be releasing several economic readings, such as the ADP employment change data and the FOMC meeting minutes. The NY session could possibly be met by a significant amount of volatility and if the pairís price touches the 1.3500 range, then this could be a great opportunity for a stop loss.


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Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart
« Reply #263 on: April 07, 2017, 05:41:35 PM »
GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: April 6, 2017

The British pound against the Japanese yen broke in the upper channel during the Wednesday session which is a sign of consolidation. The market will most likely try to reach the 140 handle but there is a noise down below for a long-term pressure. A break lower than the 50% Fibonacci retracement level gives a bearish bias which would push the trend to fall towards the 134 handle. Overall the pair gives a choppy atmosphere and with trading activity moving fast. With the ongoing Brexit process, this would affect the trading for this pair.

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Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart
« Reply #264 on: April 07, 2017, 05:58:43 PM »
NZD/USD Technical Analysis: April 7, 2017

The New Zealand dollar surged following a break higher than the peak of the hammer during the Thursday session. A strong resistance level is found at 0.70 handle. It is anticipated for the pair to have a volatility and it could increase towards the 0.71 handle when the jobs data comes out and break higher than 0.70 mark. There could also be reversals and the support level to position close to the 0.69 handle. Nevertheless, traders should expect volatility for todayís trading session.

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Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart
« Reply #265 on: April 11, 2017, 07:08:00 PM »
GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: April 11, 2017

   The GBP/USD pair has managed to make a slight recovery during the previous trading session as the USD strength wavered slightly and is now trading at just over 1.2400 points. The strength of this currency pair is not expected to translate into a bullish stance since the pair could possibly persist with its ranging and consolidation action on both sides of 1.2400 points. The market has been very slow during yesterdayís session and this is expected to seep through up to todayís session, especially since the majority of traders are now in a stop and stare mode as they do not have any kind of significant trade bases as of the moment.

   The uncertainties surrounding the Syrian war has somewhat died down since there are no recent updates with regards to the ongoing war in the region. However, thereís no denying that these problems continue to exist and this is why traders are still afraid to direct their trades into any direction lest they be caught once the pair reverses its price action due sudden events such as the US airstrike on Syria last week. The GBP/USD pair is now caught within the range of 1.2100-1.2600 and does not look poised to move in any direction now that the Brexit negotiations are about to begin. The start of the negotiations are not expected to induce significant volatility since both sides are expected to hold their own. This is also the reason why traders are refusing to take specific trade directions for the moment.

   For todayís session, the UK CPI data is scheduled to be released while there are no major releases from the US economy. The GBP/USD pair is expected to stay put no matter how the CPI data pans out within the day.

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Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart
« Reply #266 on: April 12, 2017, 06:04:52 PM »
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: April 12, 2017

The Euro paired against the U.S. dollar climbed higher during Tuesdayís session as it rebounded in the support level near the 1.0580 and broke towards the 1.0600 mark. It is favorable to go long as it extended towards the 1.0630 mark. It seems that the decline in prices has reached its end and is now anticipated to rise leaving the market wondering how high can it go. However, there is not enough momentum to bring the price up since the greenback has recently recovered that brought the pair back to the 1.06 mark.

There has been a lot of happenings involving geopolitical events in the past 24 hours that shook the market causing high volatility in the trend. The tension with North Korea and the situation in Syria where U.S. is trying to take control have been increasing concern day-by-day.

Moreover, Trump is trying to regain its pride and stand in the global economy.

It seems that Trump is losing its foothold as this puts pressure in the dollar but in effect brought the price up for the EUR/USD pair instead. With all his promises such as higher infrastructure spending, lower corporate taxes, improved health care programs, these were not yet achieved and the market is becoming impatient.

For major news today, traders should look out for the U.S. Crude oil inventory data to be released today but would not have much of an effect on the EUR/USD pair. It is foreseen that the pair will most likely react but in a small range due to rising geopolitical problems and associated risks which could persist for some time.

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Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart
« Reply #267 on: April 18, 2017, 06:12:17 PM »
USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis: April 18, 2017

   The US dollar crashed to its lowest levels within a five-month period against the Japanese yen as a reaction to North Korea-related tensions during the previous weekend. However, as the USD/JPY pair came within a major retracement barrier at 107.856 points, the USD managed to recover its losses and closed down on a much higher level than expected. The USD/JPY pair closed down the previous session at 108.904 points.

   The current volatility level of the USD/JPY pair has been mostly influenced by the price action of the US Treasuries. US bond prices crashed during the previous session immediately after reaching an all-time high since November last year. Now that both the USD/JPY pair and Treasury yields are on their lowest rungs since November 2016, a lot of investors are now speculating that the Trump administration will be unable to complete its campaign promises within the preset timeframe, including the implementation of a new healthcare plan, tax cuts, and even imposing an increased fiscal spending mechanism. In addition, some traders are also saying that the USD was propelled forward by reports that Trump is leaning towards appointing a bank-friendly figure for the Federal Reserveís vice chair for bank supervision post.

   For todayís session, the course of the USD/JPY pair is expected to be dominated mostly by investor sentiment as well as Treasury yields. The currency pair will be able to regain its momentum only if there is an increase in yields and if investors put their interests towards high-earning assets.

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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: April 18, 2017
« Reply #268 on: April 19, 2017, 12:17:45 PM »

   The GBP/USD pair traded on a strong note during yesterdayís session as it was able to not only maintain its gains but has also managed to propel itself forward and attempt to make a dent in the resistance region situated at 1.2600 points. As of the moment it is still unable to make a significant impact in this particular region but it has yet to be seen whether it will be able to make a dent as the European traders are now going back to work after the holidays. A retraction towards the 1.2500 trading range is expected to occur before making any serious gains.

   The sterling pound has been doing really well as the market is now waiting for the start of the Brexit negotiations between the EU and UK officials. The negotiations are expected to be very long and very winding, and both sides should be able to hold onto their respective gains. The Brexit process itself is also expected to affect the sterling pound in the long run. The string of economic data released from the UK economy looks good so far, with the Bank of England managing to hold the current economic situation together, however it remains to be seen whether it will still be able to do so once the negotiations begin. The 1.2600 region is expected to be sustained but as the negotiations wear on, this is expected to induce additional volatility into the pair and this is why traders should be extra careful when it comes to trading with the GBP/USD pair in the medium term outlook.

   There are no major news releases from both the UK and the US economy for today, and as such, the GBP/USD pair is expected to continue its current trend of ranging and consolidation with a bullish undertone as it again tries to break through the 1.2600 range.

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Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart
« Reply #269 on: April 21, 2017, 06:06:08 PM »
AUD/JPY Technical Analysis: April 21, 2017

The Australian dollar against the Japanese yen rebounded strongly on a major support level for this day following a downtrend which came to a stop. There also has been a sharp response to the Wall Street concerning risks amid the weakness of the currency and uncertainty brought by the French elections on Sunday. This could also be a way to encourage the bulls before the next retest.

The pair rebounded from the former resistance level at 81.50 which the shifted into a strong support. It jumped as much as 100 pips although this is about to decline.

The vertical trend line is near the 200-day Moving Average. The region close to 81.50 which becomes a significant psychological level. This further went up as it is now found at 82.15 level surpassing the current level and similar to200-day Moving Average. It could further go up and break over the current levels towards the next target levels at 82.80 then 83.30.

However, if the market fails to sustain the 82.15 support level then there is a chance to break lower than the critical level of 81.50 as a support. When this happens, this could be followed by a correction towards 78.50 with 61.8% Fibonacci level up to the 78.50 region in the next decline.