Author Topic: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart  (Read 31307 times)

Offline Andrea ForexMart

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Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart
« on: March 23, 2016, 03:45:39 PM »
Fundamental Analysis: March 23

Being halted from increasing in opposition to the major currencies on Tuesday, the dollar still gained support caused by the investors who stick on being heedful as a round of terrorist attacks in Brussels killed 26 people and left more than 100 injured. This devastating events in Brussels affected the euro and the British pound negatively.

The market slightly strengthened in the absence of important macroeconomic reports. Likewise, US releases did not help to enliven the market. The existing Home Sales for February embark at a low level wherein it was lessened by 7.1% whereas analysts had hoped for a more moderate fall of 2.8%. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for February embarked at -0.29 contrary to the reported +.025 and the previous value of +0.41.

Our focus will be on the IFO Institute release. The dynamics of Gross Domestic Product of Germany is closely corresponded with this indicator and investors always keep an eye on it. This indicator has been consistently giving a negative trend for the last three months. In the midst of euro's growth, the market did not anticipated the data to be better than the consensus report. However, the data embarked at the level of 106,7 contrary to the reported 106,0. The euro/dollar pair decreased.

An Inflation Report was released by the UK. As expected, the sturdy labor market data pointed to the forecast that was a little better than the consensus report. The average monthly income was 0.2% in the last three months which would heighten inflationary pressures whilst the unemployment in UK is at the bottom-most level now since 2005. The Consumer Price Index embarked at the level of 0,3% y/y and 0,2% m/m contrary to the reported 0,4% y/y and 0,4% m/m. The pound/dollar pair aggressively declined by the end of the trades.

As of now, we are not expecting a sturdy increase of quotations. The investors were not pleased with the United States' poor macroeconomic data wherein the Existing Home Sales for February lessened by 7.1%. The home sales reduced by 6.7% from January to March which only certified again the assumptions that the Americans started to save more than spending. The dollar/yen pair became stronger.



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Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart
« on: March 23, 2016, 03:45:39 PM »

Offline Andrea ForexMart

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Technical Analysis for GBP/USD: March 23, 2016
« Reply #1 on: March 23, 2016, 05:54:14 PM »
Sterling continued its low trajectory on Wednesday amidst negative economic data, terrorism attacks in Europe, and rising worry surrounding the Brexit.

The Bank of England announced a stagnant 0.3 percent inflation rate, missing the projected 0.4 percent rise. The news was paired with a looming interest rate cut, which has been standing at 0.5 percent since 2009. The nearest rate increase is in another three years, while the US is expecting at least two rate hikes this year, pushing the dollar upward.

UK’s controversial 2016 budget was also bad news for the ailing pound. Many were disappointed with budget cuts, with Secretary of State for Work and Pensions Duncan Smith resigning on Friday over lower disability benefits.

The pound fell further from its 1.4251 after the inflation announcement.

The first support occurred at 1.4094 and 1.4024 subsequently. The first resistance was at 1.4304 and 1.4375 subsequently.

The MACD indicator is at positive location. The price is falling.



Offline Andrea ForexMart

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Fundamental Analysis: March 29, 2016
« Reply #2 on: March 29, 2016, 01:52:20 PM »
The dollar managed to recover most of its losses which is an aftermath of the Federal Reserve meeting, and is being in demand continuously. In the midst of the Catholic Easter celebration, the traders' activity was inferior. We are hoping that today the volatility shall resume as the traders' return from their holidays' activities.

The Gross Domestic Product forecast of the US is somewhat strong and is quite surprising which of course sustained the dollar as well. The GDP was altered upwards. In the fourth quarter, the US economy increased by 1.4% contrary to the previous estimate of +1.0% and an increase of 2% in the third quarter. In favor of an early rate hike, these figures became another cause of disagreement which was consistently uttered by the Fed's representative in the past week wherein it also turned out to be supporting the demand for the dollar. The US has issued the Pending Home Sales for February wherein the data occurs at the level of 3,5% and the report was 1.0%. The EUR/USD pair slightly increase by the end of the trades on Monday.

The GBP/USD was still weak and continuously move down in the midst of concerns regarding the effect of Brexit. High risks in Brexit effect enkindled growth in volatility for the pound and the pair. The GBP/USD grew by the end of the trades.

In favor of the United States, the inflation forecast for February between Japan and US modified their differential of CPI indicators. In January, the spread was 0.1% and grew by 0.43% in the last month of winter. The USD/JPY pair reduced by the end of the trades.



Offline Andrea ForexMart

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Fundamental Analysis: March 31, 2016
« Reply #3 on: March 31, 2016, 02:27:07 PM »
The dollar experienced remarkable losses. The tremendous tender eloquence of the Fed oppressed the US currency. The external and internal risks has given emphasis by the regulator and stated that there would be a probable policy easing if needed. The statement of the regulator implies an essential enfeeblement of the dollar in coordination with its viable return to the economy stimulation. The ADP for March was issued on Wednesday wherein the report was 194,000 while the previous value was 214,000. The data occurred at the level of 200,000.

Disregarding the growth of risk appetite is not possible which is an aftermath of the growing long positions and high-yield cross-rates of the traders which gave pressure to the euro as a funding currency. The EUR/USD pair stabilized by the end of the trades.

The debt market dynamics correspond to the British currency rectification. In relative with their counterparts, United States and Germany, the 10 years UK government bonds yields decreased which also caused to diminished the appeal of the British assets. On Thursday, the performance of the Bank of England will be the center of attraction. The GBP/USD pair reduced by the end of the trades.

The United States and Japan's yields differential on government bonds reduced from November to February. In Japan, the Retail Trade revenue diminished by 5.4%. The 0% retail sales differential indicator of the Japan and US at the end of January managed to extend as far as level of 2.2% in favor of the latter in February. The USD/JPY pair slightly grew by the end of the trades.



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Fundamental Analysis for AUD/USD: March 31, 2016
« Reply #4 on: March 31, 2016, 06:43:51 PM »
The Australian dollar is riding the bulls while the greenback is too weak to follow owing to the sell-off after Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen’s speech on Tuesday. In fact, the Aussie dollar is gaining too much for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) liking.

AUD has now reached the level of 0.77, its highest in two weeks. Investors are selling their dollars and opting for Aussie ones as the latter has a better yield. However, questions are aloft on the RBA’s next move over the currency’s overvaluation.

RBA officials had previously said that the Aussie dollar is “getting ahead of itself” without significant signs of slowing down. Banks are also aiming for a lower domestic currency to successfully transition to a services-oriented economy from a mining-oriented one.

Yellen disappointed many central banks including the RBA after saying on Tuesday that tightening monetary policy should be approached with caution, slashing the hopes of many that they will see a rate hike in its policy meeting in late April.

Earlier this month, the RBA was forced to revise Aussie dollar expectations by the end of the year from US70¢ to US75¢. Furthermore, the current inflation is at 1.7 percent, missing the bank’s target of 2 to 3 percent.

If the RBA is to take a hawkish stance during its policy meeting on Tuesday, only two course of actions are in the horizon: to jawbone the Australian dollar or to cut bank rates, which now stand at a record low of 2 percent.



Offline Andrea ForexMart

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Re: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart
« Reply #5 on: April 01, 2016, 12:02:25 PM »
Technical Analysis for USD/CHF: April 1, 2016

After Janet Yellen's speech which supported a discreet strategy towards the interest rates raising, the dollar fell in opposition to almost all currencies. Her comments were presumed by the investors as rhetoric which cause the stock market to grow.

The price's first support occurs at 0.9580 and at 0.9500 subsequently. While it's first resistance resides at 0.9660 and at 0.9750 subsequently.

A confirmed and a sturdy sell signal has been found. The price is below the Ichimoku Cloud and it is below the Chikou Span. The Tenkan-sen displays a downward movement and the Kijun-sen forms a horizontal movement. The descending motion will remain until the price is below the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The price is declining.



Offline Andrea ForexMart

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Fundamental Analysis for EUR/USD: April 1, 2016
« Reply #6 on: April 01, 2016, 05:25:15 PM »
The EUR/USD posted its highest rates in five months, a strong end to cap the first quarter of the year. Gaining more than 4.75 percent during the first three months, this is also Euro’s best quarter against the dollar in almost five years.

The pair is now trading at 1.1381 in a range between 1.1310 and 1.1412. The Euro is trying to break into the 1.14 level as traders wait for the upcoming economic data from the US side.
The US will release data on nonfarm payrolls later today. About 210,000 are expected to be added to the already strong labor market, but should it reveal more than the expected amount, the dollar may recover its losses since Tuesday.

It is also possible for the nonfarm payrolls to not pull the dollars up as
(The unemployment rate should hold steady at 4.9% following a series of increases in labor force participation.)

Fears on Britain’s exit in the EU and a high inflation rate buoyed the Euro against bearish greenbacks.

The Eurostat revealed yesterday that March’s inflation rate dropped by 0.1 percent from a -0.2 percent in February, far from the European Central Bank’s 2 percent target inflation.

Meanwhile, core inflation (which strips off the most volatile industry such as food, and energy) increased to 1.0 percent from last month’s 0.8 percent, the highest in six months. However, the core inflation’s rise is only attributed to businesses’ seasonal price hike for the Easter holiday and not necessarily to the whole month.

Earlier in March, the ECB cut interest rates to the red, and if needed, they will do more in the future, ECB governing council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Thursday.



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Technical Analysis for NZD/USD: April 1, 2016
« Reply #7 on: April 01, 2016, 06:37:33 PM »
The New Zealand dollar is maintaining a bullish trend against the US dollar despite lack of economic data released in recent days. It appears that the kiwi is only propped up by the dollar’s sell-off and not because of strong economic performance.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) slashed interest rates in early March. Talks of another rate cut is rife as the RBNZ’s  policy meeting in April comes nearer.

The bird landed at a daily low of 0.6890 in earlier session but has since bounced back to its days-long attempt of beating the 0.69 level and possibly hover pips below 0.70.

Employment data from the US is scheduled to be released later this session.

The first support is at 0.6853 and 0.6818 subsequently, while the first resistance is at 0.6939 and 0.6973 subsequently.

The MACD indicator is at a positive level. The price is declining.



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Fundamental Analysis for AUD/USD: April 6, 2016
« Reply #8 on: April 06, 2016, 11:57:33 AM »
After months of rally,  the Australian dollar finally experienced a setback as the week started with disappointing data and a slowly recovering US dollar.

Retail sales for the month of February was unchanged from the previous month’s 0.3 percent, a big letdown from the forecasted 0.1 percent increase. 

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, retail sales of household goods and department stores posted the highest increases with 0.4 percent, while the food sector decreased by 0.2 percent.

During Tuesday’s monetary policy meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to hold onto its 2.00 percent interest rate, sending the AUD to the bears. RBA governor said in a statement that the “economy is continuing to rebalance following the mining investment boom.”

Contrary to an expected verbal intervention to weaken the AUD, Stevens did not jawbone the currency which has risen steadily since the start of the year, even sounding dovish toward its appreciating value.

Inflation hit a seven month low of 1.7 percent while the RBA’s target range is from 2 to 3 percent. Trade deficit rose to A$3.410 billion in February from January’s A$3.156 billion. It was projected to shrink to A$2.600 billion.

After days of losses, the USD picked up over the weekend due to a positive nonfarm payroll that further strengthened the labor market.

The pair touched 0.7536 today, recording a five-day low. Heads are now turned to Fed’s meeting later today.



Offline Andrea ForexMart

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Technical Analysis for NZD/USD: April 7, 2016
« Reply #9 on: April 07, 2016, 06:04:06 PM »
The New Zealand dollar is gaining against the greenbacks after the Federal Reserve indicated that an interest rate increase is highly unlikely this month. The kiwi dollar posted gains hours before the release of Fed’s minutes of its last meeting.

The minutes was released today and showed that the majority of the board members agree that rate hikes should be approached with caution, sending the US dollar to bearish territory after a slight recovery in earlier sessions.

The Global Dairy Trade (GDT) price index released on Wednesday was also a good news for the bird especially for New Zealand’s main export, whole milk powder, whose prices rose by 1.5 percent. Cheddar prices also moved up by 10.5 percent. The entire GDT index climbed by 2.1 percent after last reading’s 2.9 percent fall.

China, New Zealand’s largest trading partner, will release trade data and its Q1 GDP next week. This will inject further volatility into the kiwi dollar.

The pair is now trading at a range of 58 pips. The first support is at 0.6799 and 0.6765 subsequently. The first resistance is at 0.6868 and 0.6902, subsequently.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral position. The price is rising.



Offline Andrea ForexMart

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Fundamental Analysis: April 8, 2016
« Reply #10 on: April 08, 2016, 03:31:22 PM »
A poor Industrial Production forecast was presented to the market wherein the index missed 0.5% while the report was 1.8%. Yellen's statement about the external risks and the decelerating rate hike were implied in the issued Fed minutes. The market was hoping for the Fed to lower their rate hike in September wherein they expected for 46.5%. There is also presumptions and the market gives 50% that the rate hike will take place in November and 52.5% that it will happen in December.

The main occurrence of Thursday were the declaration of the ECB minutes and Mario Draghi's statement. The Initial Jobless Claims was 267,000 while the report was 270,000. However, the Consumer Credit Change was $17,22B while the report was 14.74B.

The House Prices forecast for March was issued by the UK wherein the housing prices grew by 10.1%. However, the economists expected that the inflation rate would slow down a bit to 9.5%. In monthly terms, the housing prices increased by 2.6%. Nevertheless, analysts expected the prices to increase only by 0.7%.



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Technical Analysis for NZD/USD: April 12, 2016
« Reply #11 on: April 12, 2016, 06:32:01 PM »
The NZD/USD extended gains to an intraday high of 0.6885 assisted by a soft USD and a pickup in global commodity prices.

The Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ) showed that the number of houses sold in March saw an 8.2 percent year-on-year increase, breaking the record set in March 2007. Property prices also grew by 4.2 percent year-on-year.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has been keeping a watchful eye on the real estate market amidst worries that lenders will be in trouble once the gains subside.

Apart from this, the bird is on a quiet flight until the release of the Food Price Index later today which will give a hint on the inflation rate.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral position. The price is increasing.



Offline Andrea ForexMart

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Fundamental Analysis: April 18, 2016
« Reply #12 on: April 18, 2016, 04:42:46 PM »
The risk assets may be affected by the outcome of the summit in Doha, and beforehand, the volatility of the market already reduced. Moreover, the US currency had gone under pressure which is the aftermath of the Fed statements and the poor inflation data from the US. Dennis Lockhart, Chief Executive Officer of the Fed of Atlanta, stated that he would not go for a rate hike in April as he supports a careful approach to the monetary policy tightening because of low consumer spending. The market volatility heightened by the end of the trades.

The US issued the Industrial Production volume for March. The index occur at the level of -0,6% m/m wherein the recent value was -0.50% m/m while the report was -0.60% m/m and the Consumer Sentiment index from the University of Michigan for April. The index have shown 89.7 wherein the previous value was 91.0 while the report was 92.3.

There was no important impact on EUR/USD the inflation data of the Euro area wherein the index came in the zero value after decreasing by 0.1% y/y. The Euro zone issued the Trade Balance for February wherein the index displayed 19.0 billion euro and the recent value was 20.0 billions. The pair euro/dollar increased.

The Bank of England let the rate remained at the level of 0,5% and the Bank pointed to the risks relative to the Brexit. The pound stayed appeased to the regulator's speech. The GBP/USD pair aggressively grew by the end of the trades.

The investors were upset by the poor US retail sales, PPI and CPI reports. The US and Japanese government bond yields reduced which caused the US assets to lessen its charm. The USD/JPY pair diminished by the end of the trades.



Offline Andrea ForexMart

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Fundamental Analysis: April 19, 2016
« Reply #13 on: April 19, 2016, 04:18:21 PM »
In the middle of risk aversion in the stock markets, the dollar came low. While the attention in the safe assets heightened amidst the cheap oil prices. The fall of the oil prices was due to the negative outcome of the oil exporter's meeting in Doha. The dollar have gone under pressure caused by the poor US data which is low than expected. The UDS Industrial Production decreased by 0.6% contrary to the expected 0.1% whilst the Capacity Utilization lessened to 74.8% from 75.4% and lastly, the preliminary Consumer Confidence index for April reduced to 89.7 contrary to the reported 92.

Serving as a funding currency, the euro were sustained by the decline of the risk appetite. Also, the attention in the risky assets slacken caused by the slowdown of the Gross Domestic Product increase of China and the poor economic statistics from the US. The primary reasons that cause the dollar to fall were the decrease of economic inflation of China to its bottom-most level and the average negative statistics on the US inflation. The euro/usd pair stabilized by the end of the trades.

A technical rectification to the psychological level of $40 per barrel was caused by the traders that acquired profit and closed their orders in oil contracts. Traditionally, inferior energy prices had a negative effect on the British currency. The oil price heightened and the pound/dollar pair increased by the end of the trades.

The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, William Dudley stated on  Monday that the US labor market has recuperated firmly and the Central Bank would slowly pursue to make the interest rates remained normal. An Inflation, Retail Sales and Industrial Production were negatively reported in the past week. These also played into the bear's hands in the dollar/yen pair. The dollar/yen pair increased by the end of the trades.



Offline Andrea ForexMart

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Technical Analysis for NZD/USD: April 20, 2016
« Reply #14 on: April 20, 2016, 06:21:49 PM »
The pair is experiencing a retracement as the USD outperforms the NZD, halting the bird’s third consecutive day of uptrends. The kiwi dollar is trading just eight pips above the 0.70 handle as of time of writing.

Data pointing to the opposite situation was released today. The GlobalDairyTrade(GDT) index rose by 3.8 percent from 2.1 percent. Whole milk powder, New Zealand’s biggest export goods, grew by 7.5 percent, while skim milk powder added 0.3 percent.

Meanwhile, the US’ housing data tumbled with only 1.086 building permits issued from 1.777 million in the previous month. Housing starts skidded to 1.089 million from last year’s 1.194 million.

The first support is at 0.6840 and 0.6656 subsequently. The first resistance is at 0.6926 and 0.7068 subsequently.

 The MACD indicator is in a positive location. The price is dropping.