Author Topic: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart  (Read 31459 times)

Offline Andrea ForexMart

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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: June 23, 2017
« Reply #315 on: June 23, 2017, 04:03:56 PM »
 
   The USD/CAD pair has returned to its downtrodden price action as the Canadian economy released some very dismal data on the back of a steadily dropping oil prices. The currency pair was unable to surpass the very critical trading range of 1.3300-1.3330 points, thus stopping it from making any advancements towards 1.3500 and instead caused the currency pair to return to its downtrending price direction.
 
   With the present state of the currency pair, it is now evident that the USD/CAD pair will be unable to make any decisive rebounds at least for the time being. The Canadian economy continues to throw some consistently good economic data, signaling that the country’s economic outlook remains on the positive. All this, including a highly positive retail sales data from the region could increase the chances of the Bank of Canada implementing an interest rate hike before the end of 2017. The central bank had previously hinted of this possibility a few weeks ago, and this further added to the downward pressure on the loonie. Oil prices have also managed to hold their ground in spite of its continuously weak outlook, with this oil prices the only thing stopping the USD/CAD pair to go full on with regards to completing its downturn. As of now, the USD/CAD pair is still continuing with its downtrend and if this further progresses, then the loonie will possibly reach 1.3100-1.3000 in the short term period.
 
   For today’s trading session, the Canadian economy will be releasing its CPI data, and if this turns out to be positive as well, then this could enable the USD/CAD to drop further towards 1.3100 points.

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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: June 23, 2017
« Reply #315 on: June 23, 2017, 04:03:56 PM »

Offline Andrea ForexMart

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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: June 28, 2017
« Reply #316 on: June 28, 2017, 04:11:20 PM »

The EUR/USD was able to jump higher due to hawkish remarks of ECB head, Draghi coupled with the events happened in the United States that caused the greenbacks to weaken in general during Wednesday’s trading. The pair gained more than 160 pips in the past 24 hours and ultimately, the bullishness lasted in the past few weeks become apparent.

During the first part of the day, the pair had a usual day spending time under the 1.12 level consolidating. Followed by the statement of Draghi, who frequently not discuss monetary policy on his speeches, however, this happened yesterday that moved that market.

The European Central Bank is regarded to have a bearish stance but the strong data in the previous months that forced the bank to change their stand. Recently, M. Draghi mentioned his best indication regarding changes in track and stated that there is a likelihood that the central bank would start the tapering of QE very soon. This seems to be very hawkish for the European currency and the underlying strength aided the pair in pushing higher touching the 1.1250 level above.

A short interruption occurred prior the 1.13 area that acts like a wall in the past months and has the potential to stop the pair within that point and conduct another reversal. Nonetheless, there are reports about the delay in the US healthcare reform bill due to diverging ideas coming from the Republicans per se. This event caused the USD to lose its strength in general due to worries regarding the policy paralysis in the US that was triggered once again. It further leads the pair across the region 1.13 above and trading comfortably as of this writing.

Previous forecasts say that every last week of the each month will probably witness high volatility and this has been proven right.

We expect today for another statement from the head of ECB with an anticipation to talk about fiscal policy again and if he does not mention this or anything that contradicts his comments, the pair will remain to move upwards as it was far away from the 1.13 resistance.

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NZD/USD Technical Analysis: June 30, 2017
« Reply #317 on: June 30, 2017, 05:42:16 PM »
 
The New Zealand currency experienced a volatile session during Wednesday's trading reaching the downtrend line shown in the weekly timeframe, and eventually, break down.
 
A position under the 0.73 handle indicates a slightly bearish tone, but, the longer-term market attempts to establish an adequate pressure to accomplish a breakout.
 
The downtrend line is important as the commodity markets do not offer any help towards the NZD. Having said that, performing a breakout might be difficult however when doing so, it should be massive as it touches the level 0.75 in short order.
 
Alternatively, it is also possible to breakdown but it requires a gap under the 0.7250 region to be conference since that area is considered to be a “lower low”
 
The NZDUSD pair endured an extreme volatility in the last few sessions suggests the previous situation within the Forex market in general.
 
The Kiwi dollar is known to be the least liquid among major pair that’s why we normally see lots of noise.
 
The current level of 0.73 is basically a “fair value” for the pair, hence, short-term traders would likely resume moving from side to side around that territory.
 
In the longer-term, a confirmation in order to complete the breakout is necessary even for bullish traders, as a means to put money to play within a really choppy market.
 
In case that, agricultural futures gained higher value this would mean that the NZ dollar will receive some support. But it appeared that traders’ attention is focused on the current situation of the interest rate.

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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: July 03, 2017
« Reply #318 on: July 03, 2017, 05:28:40 PM »
 
The U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen moved laterally during the Friday session. It proceed to grind close to the 112 level and if the market is successful in breaking higher than the peak of the range for the day, the next move of the market would be towards 113 handle. Buyers continue to jump in the market following the dovish decision of the Bank of Japan regarding its monetary policy. Any pullback cannot be a telltale sign of a downtrend, not until a break lower than the 110 region has been achieved to determine if the potential uptrend has ended.

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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 04, 2017
« Reply #319 on: July 04, 2017, 04:07:28 PM »
 
The British pound against the U.S. dollar has had a difficult trading session yesterday as the dollar is starting to recover in the market as the week starts. Several data are expected to come out from the U.S. as traders are anticipating these data to be supporting the greenback.
In view of this, this commences the week in a great start especially for the U.S. dollar that dollar bulls could take advantage of and could further get better until the holiday but could proceed into consolidation prior to the resurgence of the volatility tomorrow.
The cable has had trouble following the bad data from the U.K. when the Manufacturing PMI did not meet expectations. Although, the Manufacturing PMI data from the U.S. came in stronger. These added pressure to the GBP/USD pair and promote the pair to get lower at 1.30 up to 1.29 level.
Currently, the pair is hovering strongly close to the resistance region in 1.3030 which seems to be similar to yesterday’s forecast. Moreover, the pair climbed uphill at a quicker pace where a correction won’t be surprising to happen.
The market sentiment is becoming stronger that the BOE would hike rates sooner which is also supported by the central bank as it is hawkish over the past month. Governor Carney is saying that the pound has surpassed the obstacle and a hawkish decision would be beneficial for the pound.
More expectantly, the employment data from the U.S. are assumed to come out positively which could raise the option for another rate hike from the Fed soon. It is intriguing on the how next week will turn out as the pound and the dollar would fight off on which will be priced higher than the other.
For today, the Construction PMI data from the U.K is expected to be published while the U.S. in a holiday that offsets the volatility and the liquidity in the market with low trading activities. It is reasonable to expect consolidation in the market.

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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 7, 2017
« Reply #320 on: July 07, 2017, 03:36:14 PM »

The EUR/USD climb higher on the positive news for the single European currency and brought negative news for the US dollar, hence, this helped the pair to return towards the range of its highs where it previously existed.

The euro-dollar pair appeared to be very bullish as of this time while traders and euro bulls will cheer up due to the fact that a major portion of this is from the existing strength of the EUR. This not the same during the earlier times wherein the pair trailed upwards following the dollar’s weakness.

As mentioned in the earlier forecast, the bullish run will remain intact within this pair and it appeared that will take some time prior the euro recovery. This happened yesterday due to the release of ECB minutes which clearly indicates that officials talked about preserving the QE tapering. However, decided to hold back until the inflation data support this move. It further shows that the ECB is very serious in considering the tapering as this also wrought a large increase for the EUR. In case that it lacks steam to push the EURUSD higher, we could rely on the ADP employment report which presented lower than expected value of 158K versus projections of 185K.

As the ADP served as a precursor to the NFP scheduled to be released later this day, it further acts as a reminder for the dollar bulls that they are not yet far from that critical phase and that other challenges and struggle continues in the near-term. With this, the trend of sluggish US data resumed in the past couple of days. This questioned the Fed’s decision on ignoring the weak data after they implemented rate hike in the previous month. Ultimately, the focus is on the NFP along with the wages report and should be keenly monitored. Any hints of weakness in this report will only need some stimulant in order for the euro bulls to support the pair to 1.05 level.

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GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: July 11, 2017
« Reply #321 on: July 12, 2017, 10:34:08 AM »

The British pound attempted to soar against the Japanese yen but failed as it pulled back to the 147 level. The market has been advancing in the long term more like grinding and gain from small increments.

It seems that the market is going to decline for any particular period of time since the Bank of Japan will most likely maintain its low borrowing rates for long-term. Whilst the Bank of England might increase its rates in near-term and after some time, the price could break towards the 150 level. Currently, it is a little bit over extended laterally that makes grinding a way to gain impetus and proceed to the upper channel for long-term.

Buying dips would be an ideal to gain in short-term but restricted to not so good moves (20 to 30 pips is attainable). However, if it breaks lower than the 146 level then this could proceed lower towards the 145 handle which can be more supportive compared to the areas being tested as of the moment.

It may be a bit difficult to trade the GBP/JPY pair yet the market signals that they favor the uptrend.  Hence, it is best to hold shorting this pair especially since the 150 is being strongly resistive. However, if this has been gapped, the market could rally much higher for an extended period.

For now, the short-term profits in the market could get bigger once it gains momentum but it still requires more patience to trade this pair in the market. 

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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 14, 2017
« Reply #322 on: July 14, 2017, 03:29:13 PM »

Despite the fact that EUR/USD appeared to be volatile and fluctuates continuously and when we zoom out the trends viewed on the daily scale, we can see that the euro-dollar pair is trading in a quite tight range in the past couple of days.

Apparently, the pair is bullish but a move over the 1.1450 region a few days ago, correct back towards that level and it trades on top of 1.14 mark as of this writing.

Failure to move beyond the level 1.1450, despite the weakening of the US dollar previously, should still be considered by the bulls. As they are expectant that the EURUSD will remain to trend upwards when it cleared the resistive region at 1.1430. Yet, there’s no any movement happened and the pair trades under the broken resistance as of this moment.

As the euro bulls spent more time in managing their move, it provides a greater chance that dollar bullishness may eventuate and then trimmed lower until nothing.

Janet Yellen’s testimony in 2 days did not bring out any hints of hawkishness that disappointed the dollar bulls again yesterday since they somewhat expected that she will support the dollar and give any clues regarding economic growth and the schedule of the next rate increase. The Fed Chair spoke her typical lines without providing any signals and this resulted in a weaker dollar.

Ultimately, the US CPI and retail sales and other significant data is the second most important set of data next to jobs report. Therefore, it should be monitored closely in order to know if there is some recovery in the employment statistics for these figures could also lead to a recovery. In case that this happens, we will witness a fully recovered US dollar.

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USD/CAD Technical Analysis: July 18, 2017
« Reply #323 on: July 19, 2017, 01:01:10 PM »

The US dollar attempted to rally during Monday opening, however, rolled over once again. There is a tendency that the market will resume selling rallies, considering the interest rate differential of Canada with the United States may begin expansion through bond markets.

The rates of Canada rose as it was placed some large bets while American bonds were shorted. With this, the monetary flow would probably continue to move northwards.  Traders are expected to focus more on the oil markets, however, they are still looking some support.

In the longer-term, they appeared to have a bullish bias while the market attempts to reprice the bond condition and the oil was disregarded in the short term. In addition to it, the oil is generally bearish that influenced the Loonie afterward.

The initial significant area may provide support at 1.25 region. Moreover, the market resume to sell rallies and we should look for exhaustion on the back of short-term rallies to acquire benefit from.

Market participants should have the patience to wait for the opportunity during the half day of trading and the USDCAD will probably follow such rules. The 1.28 mark might offer a complete ceiling and a broke on top of that point may deal with buying. Therefore, we should not anticipate for that to occur in the short term and this is quite some kind of “one-way trade”.

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EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: July 20, 2017
« Reply #324 on: July 21, 2017, 03:56:08 PM »

The Euro against the British pound moved laterally at the beginning of Wednesday session followed by a slight declined. There is a lot of choppiness as it moves closer to the 0.8850 level. There is a massive support found below the 0.88 level where the choppiness is expected to persist and buyers will return in the market after some time.

The 0.88 level below is being supportive in short-term perspective and it could move towards the 0.89 level. As for long-term, it will search for the 0.90 level which is massively significant psychological level. Pullbacks opens long opportunities unless it breaks lower than the 0.88 level which is not a good sign.

The volatility will persist for this pair in consideration of Brexit negotiation between the United Kingdom and the European Union. This adds risks to market which will be either favorable for the trader or not.

It is wise to look for smaller positions since the market could react to this at a faster rate and not be surprised and disturbed by the random comments from politicians in Brussels or London. Nevertheless, the uptrend remains strong in the long-term charts and a hint of bullishness below the present psychological levels.

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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: July 24, 2017
« Reply #325 on: July 24, 2017, 05:27:02 PM »

Draghi sounded dovish during the latest press conference and he was aware of the rally of the euro since the economic data favor the currency. Although the Draghi is trying to bring the price down as expressed in his speech, the market has reacted oppositely and bought the currency even more and push the price of the EUR/USD pair towards 1.15 level. Soon after, the news regarding the business transaction of Trump investigation, a selloff in the dollar occurred that influenced the price to move towards 1.16 region. The week closed above the said region.

In the upcoming week, we are heading towards the end of the month where the economic news and events dry up and hence we do not have much news in the coming week apart from the FOMC statement. But considering how bullish the EURUSD pair has been, we believe that the next target for the pair would be the 1.18 region.

As the last day of the week and the end of the month approaches, the pair will mostly persist in a neutral stance for today. There are less economic events except for the FOMC statement recently. The next target of the pair would be at 1.18 region for short term. Once this has been achieved, a correction could follow suit as it has been beyond its highs for the year and the highest since 2015. The number of short positions for the dollar will most likely increase that poses a lot of risks and uncertainty especially for dollar bears who would immediately exit the market once it goes up.

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EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: July 31, 2017
« Reply #326 on: July 31, 2017, 06:03:06 PM »

The Euro against the British pound surged during the Friday session although there some resistance found close to the 0.8960 level. The market had a roll over for the few hours but was limited by the resistance level. There is much support found below that proceeds to market higher.

The next target would the 0.90 level and if the price breaks more and pushes the price towards 0.92 level for long-term. The 0.89 level below persists to be supportive that makes a breakdown far to happen. As shown in the weekly chart, the market sees the 0.89 level to be the support level.

Traders proceed to buy on the lows as it persists in supporting the euro currency. A breakout of both currencies occurred against the U.S. dollar although the market favors the euro more which is reflected in the pair. After some time, there is a lot of volatility in the market directed upward.

Shorting this pair may not be ideal but the once the price breaks higher than the 0.90 level. Buyers will turn more hostile as the psychological level of resistance. However, if the price gaps below the 0.89 level which is extraordinarily bearish that would adjust the short-term trend.

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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: August 3, 2017
« Reply #327 on: August 03, 2017, 04:07:29 PM »

The main focus for today will be on the sterling pound as there are an expected economic releases and other data from the United Kingdom for this day. We await for the UK inflation hearings along with the rate announcement of the Bank of England to be issued. Also, BOE Governor Mark Carney will conduct his speech, therefore these events would likely cause high volatility for the GBP/USD.

The central bank of England was hawkish during their last meeting which led few markets to think that rate hike is possible sooner or later. There are three BOE members who agreed for a rate increase which triggered confidence for some markets, however, this only accounts a small portion of the market because the majority still believes that the bank will maintain its benchmark.

This is considered a logical approach regarding the continuous financial circles of Britain which could be a turmoil caused by the Brexit procedures. Moreover, a lot of things remain unclear, particularly the results of the referendum process in determining if it will a soft or hard Brexit. Due to many uncertainties, it is absurd for the BOE to make an increase and most likely, they want to see first the effect of the Brexit negotiations prior making such decisions.

The pound-dollar resume to consolidate yesterday and the range near the highs of its range are expected for this very important day. In case that the BOE decided to kept rates steady, the Cable is anticipated for further correction. The 1.3250 level serves as the ceiling at this moment.

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NZD/USD Technical Analysis: August 23, 2017
« Reply #328 on: August 23, 2017, 05:51:19 PM »

Trading of the New Zealand dollar declined during the Tuesday session as they tested the 0.7275 handle. It rebounded from that level. It seems that it now ready to consolidate as a whole. The Resistance level is seen higher than the 0.7340 level which will most likely be the area where a rebound is expected. If the market successfully breaks higher from the said level, the price could reach towards the psychological level of 0.75 and above. This area has been the importantly resistive in the past which could make it difficult for a breakdown to happen.

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USD/CAD Technical Analysis: August 25, 2017
« Reply #329 on: August 26, 2017, 04:01:15 PM »

During the Thursday session, the U.S. dollar dropped against the Canadian dollar as it reached the 1.25 handle once again. If the market was able to breakout below, this could fasten the pace to proceed downhill. Although, this would not be a facile process. A rebound is also plausible which is already foreseeable if it happens but the 1.26 level remains resistive. A breakout in the upper channel which would have a big influence to the pair as traders react to the speech with Janet Yellen for today. Volatility could exist in the market, despite the ones in power are the sellers.