Author Topic: Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart  (Read 24647 times)

Offline Andrea ForexMart

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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: June 1, 2017
« Reply #300 on: June 01, 2017, 02:23:52 PM »

   The EUR/USD pair looks poised to  make another attempt at reaching its current range highs as the currency pair was able to take advantage of a correction in the greenback. This upward pressure in the currency pair is expected to last well into the first few days of June, particularly the 2 most essential trading days for this month.

   The dollar experienced corrections on the back of a couple of disappointing data from the US economy. The first one was the Chicago PMI data, which failed to meet its expected economic reading and the pending home sales data, which also disappointed the entirety of the market yesterday. This triggered a large-scale dollar selloff against other major currencies and has enabled the EUR/USD pair to advance towards 1.1200 and was even able to reach 1.1250 points throughout the course of the NY session. Since the Fed had previously clarified that the implementation of the June rate hike will be wholly dependent on the results of the incoming economic readings from the US, the market has become very sensitive to readings coming from the US economy, with even minor readings inducing major volatility levels on the market especially if these comes out as very disappointing for investors. Eventually, the PMI data was revised to a much higher reading and this helped to cushion the blow of the fall of the USD, although this has left an impression on the market with regards to the adverse effects of a negative reading to the value of the US dollar. Meanwhile, the USD continues to be in peril in spite of its drop in value being temporarily stalled.

   For today’s trading session, there are no major news releases coming from the EU economy while the US will be releasing its unemployment claims data and its ADP Non-Farm Employment change data during the NY session, which is a precedent to the release of the NFP report on Friday. This particular bit of news is then expected to induce major volatility levels and a move of the currency pair below 1.1200 points should be a signal for the pair’s bulls to rethink their positions.

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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: June 1, 2017
« Reply #300 on: June 01, 2017, 02:23:52 PM »

Offline Andrea ForexMart

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EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: June 1, 2017
« Reply #301 on: June 01, 2017, 04:14:29 PM »

The Euro against the British pound was highly volatile during the Wednesday session. It is being in tested in the upper channel and a pullback was seen reaching the opening for the day. The market is attempting to gain sufficient impetus to break higher than the 0.88 level followed by 0.90 level.

In the long-term, this pair seems to be much stronger although there is a lot of noise found in the upper channel causing the choppiness of the market. The market might move slower especially with various major reports from the European Union and Britain. Same goes for Brussels and London which will be the center of attention and this market can be easily affected by these outside forces.

It won’t be long before this pair rallies upward and it is advisable to either buy after a breakout or be more careful and wait on the sidelines. Selling might be more difficult for this pair neither placing a short-term orde. However, a move lower than the 0.86 handle is a good thing although it seems that the buyers dominate participants but might now last in the current condition of the market.

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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: June 1, 2017
« Reply #302 on: June 01, 2017, 06:10:25 PM »

   The USD/CAD pair was able to advance further towards its range highs during the previous session in spite of the greenback suffering blows against other major currency pairs due to a series of disappointing economic data from the US economy. The loonie is now trading at just above 1.3500 points which is considered to be a very essential trading region for the currency pair. However, the market has yet to see whether the USD/CAD pair will indeed manage to go even higher and reclaim its bullish price action or if it will correct and return to its previous trading range.

   This surge in the value of the USD/CAD pair has been mostly attributed to a string of weak economic data from Canada. As the Canadian GDP was released during yesterday’s session, the annual and quarterly readings for 2016 disappointed the market in spite of a very positive monthly reading. This was far worse than what the market had initially anticipated and has caused the loonie to correct and the USD/CAD pair to increase further in value. Oil prices also dropped while the Canadian inventory data showed a solid draw in addition to an added increase of Libyan production data. This caused both the Canadian dollar and oil prices to drop and was more than enough for the currency pair’s bulls to help prop up the value of the USD/CAD pair past 1.3500 points where it is currently sitting as of the moment.

   For today’s session, the market is expecting the release of unemployment claims data and the ADP employment report from the US economy, both of which are of utmost importance since this serves as a precursor to the incoming NFP report due tomorrow. The oil inventory data is set to be released today, and this, together with the NFP report will most likely determine the short-term price action of the USD/CAD pair.

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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: June 6, 2017
« Reply #303 on: June 06, 2017, 04:09:10 PM »

   The USD/CAD pair continues to exhibited a very tight price action as the pair’s bulls and bears continue to fight out for the control of the currency pair and is expected to remain as the pair’s dominant trend in the short-term period. The pair has been trapped in a very limited range ever since the currency pair managed to push forward past 1.3500 points with buyers dominating the 1.3400 trading range.

   During the past few days, oil prices have remained stable, thereby decreasing the amount of leverage it gave to the Canadian dollar and was one of the reasons why the loonie was unable to take full advantage of the dollar weakness which was due to a series of dismal US employment reports last week. Oil prices has also continued to be very disappointing due to rising tensions in the oil-rich Middle Eastern countries and has subsequently diminished its support for the loonie. In spite of the pair making a headway towards 1.3460 for a short while, it was almost immediately met with several buys, causing the USD/CAD pair to retreat towards 1.3500 points, where it is expected to stay put at least in the coming days. The market is now preparing itself for the trading sessions on Thursday and Friday as the currency pair would most likely undergo a volatile trading session due to Comey’s testimony as well as the release of the Canadian employment report on Friday. This is why traders are advised to remain in the sidelines until such time that a break shows up on the pair’s range before inducing any kind of progress in their trades.

   For today’s session, there are now major releases from both the US and  the Canadian economy and the USD/CAD pair is expected to continue consolidating throughout the duration of today’s session.

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NZD/USD Technical Analysis: June 6, 2017
« Reply #304 on: June 06, 2017, 05:43:09 PM »

The New Zealand broke in the lower channel during the Monday session. Later, the trend bounced off to fill the gap then declined again. There is massive support found in the 0.71 below which triggered the market to rise again as it reached the former break level. Currently, the market is attempting to move higher as it gains momentum to reach the 0.7150 region which would hint a bullish sentiment. 

The market could also retreat from this level towards the 0.71 handle once more. Overall, there will be high volatility and persist for some time in the market since the New Zealand dollar is relative to commodities market which always changes. Hence, the currency is expected to be traded with a choppy environment.

Buying on the lows is advisable for this pair and is not surprising for them to return as the trend moves in a downtrend. However, shorting this pair may not be the best move. If the price breaks lower than the 0.71 handle, the next move would be to go downward toward the 0.7050 level. 

Nevertheless, the market will be very choppy driven by geopolitical risks and in consideration of its sensitivity opting the U.S. dollars as a safety currency while the kiwi being the riskier one in this pair. Volatility is also anticipated to persist in either direction it goes.

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GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: June 6, 2017
« Reply #305 on: June 06, 2017, 06:50:21 PM »

The British pound against the Japanese yen broke on the lower side during the Monday session which was upturned indicating bullishness in the trend. It is directed towards the 143 level and higher up that fills the gap. There is a robust resistance seen in the previous trades that makes the reversal unexpected. However, if the price is set higher, this would persist to an elevated level pointed to the 144 region.

It is anticipated to have volatility for this pair regardless of the next move since the market is in a “risk on” or “risk off” sentiment. Moreover, the British elections worsen the situation as it affected the British currency that brings unpredictability in the market until the election on Thursday. Other global economic concerns will also affect the trend.

Volatility is the current focal point of the market and if it gaps more than the 143 region, more buying opportunities will come out for the market. However, if the election polls showed conservatives leading in Britain, this push this pair aimed higher with chances to break higher than the 144 region then shift towards the 145 handle.

Traders should not expect that trading this pair would be easy that makes trades on small positions to be ideal for this pair or one could opt to wait in the sidelines as GBP/JPY is one of the pairs risky to position in the market.

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NZD/USD Technical Analysis: June 7, 2017
« Reply #306 on: June 07, 2017, 04:27:23 PM »

The NZDUSD rallied amid trades on Tuesday and broke the level on top of 0.7150 smoothly. The Kiwi dollar continued to search for buyers on dips and tend to handle some pullback as an opportunity to increase rate.

The market tried to touch the region above 0.72, en route 0.75 afterwards. As shown in the chart, the area around 0.71 handle provides a lot of support and regarded to be the floor of the market in the near-term uptrend. The commodity space continues to weigh on the market and the NZD seems to be the “barometer” towards the overall sentiment of futures trading. Watch closely for the commodity because it could possibly show the way.

It could be a good move to buy dips moving forward because it suits the current status of the New Zealand currency. Selling remains impossible as far as we breach under the 0.71 mark. A successful break down prompts the market to reach the range below 0.7050 which is very supportive previously, along with the 0.70 region. In any case, the market remains to be volatile, however, the moving averages came in reliable, particularly the 48-hour MA shown in green color, hence it should offer further buying opportunities.

The volatility driven market persists, but the late impulsivity indicates that buyers begin to develop more confident as it moves ahead. Moreover, the dips will provide value which is an advantage to market participants.

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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: June 9, 2017
« Reply #307 on: June 09, 2017, 05:16:30 PM »
 
The events happened yesterday unexpectedly wrought a slight impact against the USD/CAD, as well as to other currency pairs. However, there are predictions that it would be an explosive day yesterday due to incidents lined up while traders work late at night to secure a safe position and to keep their trades well but everything turned out to be less impressive and unexciting.
 
The said events are as follows; the decision of ECB to hold its rates paired with the announcement on inflation targets and increasing growth outlook, though it is obviously has nothing to do with the pair. Next is the testimony of Comey after he accused US President Trump with lots of things.
 
These scenarios were unable to move the dollar and any movement only indicates an insignificant strengthening of the greens that lead the USDCAD near 1.35.
 
In relation to the Canadian dollar, BOC Governor Poloz delivered a speech expressing his delight about the current condition of their economy. He also stated that he was comfortable regarding the price trend in the housing industry. The neutral tone strike by Poloz reflected towards the commodity-linked pair which continuously trades in a steady and unspecified direction.
 
Later this day, the Canadian employment figures is anticipated to be release that would likely cause volatility. If the report showed a stronger result, it would help the pair to reach the lows of its tight range close to the 1.3450 level.

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GBP/JPY Technical Analysis: June 9, 2017
« Reply #308 on: June 09, 2017, 06:17:20 PM »
 
The British pound paired against the Japanese yen had a volatile session during the Thursday session. This is not surprising because of the U.K. parliamentary elections. Although, traders are not sure what is the general attitude of the market regarding Brexit leaving uncertainty in investors.
 
Towards the end of the day, the pair rallies forward with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level close to the 142.75 handle. Low levels have been higher which could continue to go up. The 143 region is starting to be strongly resistive and if the market is successful in breaking this level, the price could move higher. As of now, the market is still in consolidation.
 
However, if the price fell down to the 142 handle, there are more buyers interested in this pair. If the market is successful to break out in the upper channel, it will suggest a “risk on/off” sentiment which is a common reaction here. Traders should be cautious to avoid losses since they could incur bigger losses if not careful. Same goes for the USD/JPY pair and position in smaller trades which is relevant for this pair.
 
Nevertheless, it is also a good move to buy the pair for long-term but still with some caution before posting large orders since the market is still unstable. It is safer to wait until next week or after the results of U.K. election.

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EUR/GBP Technical Analysis: June 13, 2017
« Reply #309 on: June 13, 2017, 04:37:18 PM »
 
The Euro against the British pound move sideways during the Monday session. It broke above the 0.88 handle as the market continues to sell off the currency. This is a significant move while it seems that the market is not ready to retreat. Pullbacks would then attract more buyers and the 0.88 region below continues to be supportive.
 
However, if the price breaks lower and the gap is filled, this could send the price lower as low as 0.8650 and lower. Some pullbacks would open buying opportunities indicating massive support below. There is still a possibility to move higher towards the 0.90 level which hints as a significant psychological level.
 
The British currency has depreciated which drags the pair more than the other. On the other hand, the Euro is steadily moving in the market. The impulsive action is most likely driven by the pound more than other aspects. The uncertainty persists in the market which entails the pair could climb higher.
 
The 0.90 region gives off a significant resistance and a break over this would provide more long-term opportunities. It may not be wise to sell this pair since there are other things to consider in selling off this pair. However, if the pair breaks in the base of the breakdown, this would significantly shift the movement which could induce selling and this is not gonna be good for the pair. 

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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: June 14, 2017
« Reply #310 on: June 14, 2017, 03:54:17 PM »
 
   The EUR/USD pair merely continued its tight trading action during yesterday’s session as the market braces itself for the announcement coming from the FOMC scheduled for today. The currency pair had initially attempted to move towards the bottom if its range but was immediately met with some large-scale buys in the 1.1160-1.1180 range, prompting the currency pair to revert to its original range.
 
   During the previous session, the most important region for the pair’s bulls and bears was the 1.1200 trading range, with the currency pair managing to close down yesterday’s session at just over this particular range. However, this would all be futile if ever the Fed decides to implement another interest rate hike and release a very hawkish statement. As of the moment, the market has priced in a 90% possibility of rate hike, with the Fed neither confirming nor denying rumors of a possible interest rate hike. The market has taken this as a positive signal from the Fed as far as the rate hike is concerned, and this is one of the reasons why the EUR/USD pair is now trading within its range lows paired with somewhat tame bounces in between as the USD continues to hold on to its current value. Now that the rate hike is already priced in, the market will now be shifting its focus towards the FOMC statement, where the central bank is expected give clues with regards to the next rate hike. The next scheduled rate hike was initially scheduled to be implemented this coming September, however a series of negative data from the US economy has caused doubts on whether the central bank will be indeed pushing through with the next rate hike.
 
   Aside from the FOMC rate announcement, the US economy will also be releasing its retail sales data and CPI data, both of which are expected to induce volatility levels into the EUR/USD pair. However, since the market will be focusing today on the rate announcement, a volatility surge is expected right after the release of the FOMC statement.

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USD/CAD Technical Analysis: June 15, 2017
« Reply #311 on: June 15, 2017, 05:59:02 PM »
 
The U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar declined during the Wednesday session. It broke lower than the 1.32 level. However, there are still concerns in betting this pair considering the possibility of a rally because of the speculations to the Bank of Canada to tighten its rates or lessen its quantitative easing.
 
Generally, the market is focused on various factors. One is the oil market which has an impact on the Canadian dollar. There is a chance that the central bank would have a drastic change to the price trend to support the Loonie. Currently, there is uncertainty in the oil market that the investors should closely monitor besides other economic problems.
 
Furthermore, what the Federal Reserve is doing would have an effect to the trading market and just recently, there was a sell-off in the pair for the past few days which could unexpectedly turn into bullishness instead of bearishness. Three handles have already been lost indicating strong moves over the last three days. This makes other currencies to be traded easier. However, if the Federal Reserve made a surprising move to raise its interest rates for the second half of the year, the market will turn into chaos and surge to the upper channel along with the Japanese yen major pair against the greenback.

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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: June 16, 2017
« Reply #312 on: June 16, 2017, 01:38:04 PM »
 
   The EUR/USD pair exhibited a correction during the past 24 hours as the US dollar regained its strength following the recent Fed rate hike. This was pretty much expected for the EUR/USD pair once the London session commenced and were able to react on this recent development from  the US economy.
 
   The market faced a slight disorientation halfway through yesterday’s NY session as the Fed mulled over whether it will still push through with its planned interest rate hike in spite of a series of disappointing economic data from the US. Luckily, the central bank decided to go ahead and push through with the said hike and even chose to shrug off the weak economic data as a mere one-off and instead kept its focus on future rate hikes as well as the overall economic health of the country. This gave off a bullish undertone to the market, and the market responded accordingly by triggering a massive dollar buying across all currencies. As a result, the EUR/USD pair sank through 1.1200 points and spent a short while at the 1.1160-1.1170 support range, and although the pair was met with some buying within this range, this buying lasted only for a brief period and the pair eventually dropped towards 1.1130 points before finally settling at just under 1.1150 points, where it continued to trade in a very weak manner, with its next short-term target located at 1.1100 points. There were some positive data coming in from the EU, while the IMF also stated that the EU economy seems to be consistently improving, but so far this has had no effect on  the EUR/USD pair.
 
   For today’s trading session, there are no major releases from the eurozone while the US economy will be releasing its building permits data. The dollar is expected to remain trading in a consistently strong manner which could put additional pressure on the EUR/USD pair.

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USD/JPY Technical Analysis: June 19, 2017
« Reply #313 on: June 19, 2017, 05:09:21 PM »
 
The U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen climbed higher during the Friday session. There is a massive resistance found in the 11.40 level to reverse the trend followed by a decline. A neutral candle is formed for the day although the market is trying to gain momentum as they are trying to recover following the drastic move in the upside on Thursday.
 
The Federal Reserve is being hawkish more than expected which is favorable for the greenback since the Bank of Japan moves contradictorily when it comes to monetary policy. The 110 region remains supportive which would most likely become the floor of the market.
 
For now, it is advisable to short this pair to take advantage of its short-term decline and rendering more support for every short-term credit. This is still not finite and the trend could decline anytime although the next move would most likely be in the upside reflecting the impulsiveness of the market. Hence, buying is much more practical in the current market condition.
 
The initial next target would be at 112 then 112.50 level. For long-term, the trend could reach as high as 115 region although it might take longer to achieve this. There is also a tendency for the pair to be volatile which is not surprising. It is good to trade this pair in the current market as it could also benefit the greenback traded against the yen since the BOJ is dovish and most likely continue for a longer period of time.

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USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis: June 20, 2017
« Reply #314 on: June 20, 2017, 06:08:19 PM »
 
   The USD/CAD pair continues to consolidate within its range lows as the loonie makes another attempt to recover its losses and possibly trigger a bounce in its value. Now that the Bank of Canada is more than eager to help the Canadian economy make a 360-degree turn, the pair’s bulls will be in for a hard time as it tries to induce any kind of price bounce. Should the pair manage to create a bounce, then this should be viewed as a selling opportunity and should not be taken as a trend adjustment.
 
   On the other hand, oil prices are still trading within its bottom rungs and remains weak as of the moment, however the CAD seems to be unaffected by this and has still managed to look very positive and has remained trading in a very positive manner. The CAD will only be able to gain some measure of short-term strength if the oil prices will be able to recover in the short run, and if this happens, then the USD/CAD pair might be able to make a substantial attempt to go beyond the critical range of 1.3000 points. The currency pair has weakened significantly ever since it surpassed 1.3500, with this region signalling a trend shift. The fact that the currency pair is still doing very well in spite of a drop in oil prices and dollar strength just goes to show how much of a change has happened within the price action of the USD/CAD pair. Meanwhile, the economic releases from the Canadian economy has showed consistently positive readings, with the BoC announcing its plans to help keep the country’s economy on  the upside.
 
   For today’s trading session, there are no major releases from the Canadian economy, and the USD/CAD pair is expected to range and consolidate on both directions of 1.3200 points.