Author Topic: Daily EUR/USD Analysis from ForexMart  (Read 12155 times)

Offline Andrea ForexMart

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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: September 26, 2016
« Reply #30 on: September 26, 2016, 03:43:28 PM »

   The EUR/USD went up higher during Fridayís trading session as the USD further weakened after the Fedís decision to maintain its current interest rates. The Markit PMI also went out lower than expected after it took the bulk of the earlier increases in the USD. Resistance levels are currently on the downward side after coming out within the 1.1290 range. Support levels are currently near the 10-day moving average at 1.1206 points.

   US Markit PMI data dropped by 0.6 points to go out at 51.4 points for September following a 0.9 point drop to 52.0 points in August. Index is now ranging from 50.7-52.9 for 2016, with Septemberís levels going at 53.1 points. New index data showed a decrease to 51.0 points from last Augustís 52.7 points, its lowest level since December 2015. Manufacturing data also went out lower than expected as compared to similar technical readings of composite EU data.



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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: September 26, 2016
« Reply #30 on: September 26, 2016, 03:43:28 PM »

Offline Andrea ForexMart

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Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: September 27, 2016
« Reply #31 on: September 27, 2016, 02:44:48 PM »

   The EUR/USD pair rallied up to 1.1278 during Mondayís trading session after positive US housing date enabled investors to avoid the advancement towards a major resistance range. US new home sales went down slightly in August, dropping at a 609,000 annual rate and decreasing by 7.6% as compared to the data last July, lower than the expected 8.6% decline. The USD was also strengthened by comments from the Fedís lacker which has stated that there is a strong possibility of an interest rate hike in December. Germanyís IFO survey has indicated that the business environment in the EU has increased significantly in September, going up to 109.5 from Augustís 106.2, with increase in both the expectations and assessments sector.

   The EUR/USD pair meanwhile continues to trade within its current range, suspending its recovery at main resistance levels, with a descent at 1.1615 points. The currency pair also experienced multiple intraday highs and lows within the 1.1280 trading range, and the upward potential will continue to be suspended as long as the price of the pair remains below 1.1280 points. Divergences can already be seen in the 4-hour chart, and the price continues to remain above a highly bullish 20 SMA which has already went above the 100 SMA. There is a high probability of a bearish trading session on Tuesday if there will be more decreases below the 1.1225 range. If the USD continues to strengthen, then there is a probable bearish trade point at 1.1160.




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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: September 28, 2016
« Reply #32 on: September 28, 2016, 04:55:29 PM »

   The EUR/USD pair dropped to 1.190 points during Tuesdayís session as the USD increased its trading value during the session but later lost some of its gains as Fedís Fischer released a statement saying that as much as he does not want to have low interest rates, he wouldnít want it to increase as much. However, Fischer also noted that he has no information with regards to the date of the expected interest rate hike from Fed. The last trading session exhibited active volatility levels, especially with Hillary Clintonís impressive performance during the first US Presidential Debate. However, the dropping bank equities in Londonís trading session affected the trades on Tuesday.

   The USD also increased due to the added intraday support from highly positive macroeconomic releases, particularly with the improved Conference BC Confidence Index which is now at 104.1 from last monthís 101.8. The expansion rate of business activities also increased after a three-month dormancy, according to preliminary Markit Services and Composite PMI data. Services PMI went up to 51.9 in September as compared to Augustís 51.0, while Composite PMI data also increased to 52.0 points from last monthís 51.5 points.

   The EUR/USD is still primarily in the negative territory, albeit with a persistence neutral stance. The 4-hour chart for the currency pair has no clear indicators, with prices recovering after a slew of horizontal moving averages and technical indicators going above the middle range.



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Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: September 29, 2016
« Reply #33 on: September 29, 2016, 06:07:07 PM »

   The EUR/USD pair had an ambiguous stance during Wednesdayís trading session as investors and traders are waiting for statements coming from the European Central Bank and and the Federal Reserve. However, none of the two central banks are expected to release new modifications, which leaves the EUR/USD pair at a lower value than the previous trading sessions. Fed Chair Janet Yellen has already stated that there is no definite period as to when the Federal Reserve would be increasing its interest rates. On  the other hand, ECB Chair Mario Draghi has stated that the central bankís negative rates are not the ones to be blamed for problems in the European banking sector.

   The Durable Goods Orders data came out without much activity, even falling below the expected data release in August. The DGO report has also showed that capital equipment shipments had already decreased in value four months in a row, and investors are expecting that this will lead to a drop in Q3 GDP rates.

   In general, the EUR/USD pair has been struggling to make progress during this week. The pairís 4-hour chart indicates that its value has been unable to go above its moving averages. Momentum levels are expected to go south and below the 100 level. Meanwhile, RSI indicators are in the 47-point range and is leaning towards the negative. Selling interest are now below 1.1190 and this could make the currency pair go even lower at 1.1120 during the next trading sessions.



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Technical Analysis for EUR/USD: September 30, 2016
« Reply #34 on: September 30, 2016, 05:10:30 PM »

The EUR decreased its value after Germanyís Unemployment Change report turned out to be far weaker than what traders and investors had expected. Meanwhile, the USD strengthened slightly after hints that the Fed might possibly implement an interest rate hike before the year ends.

The EUR/USD pair meanwhile had its support levels at 1.1200 points and had a lackluster performance during Thursdayís trading session. The currency pairís price levels remained inactive at the 1.1200 - 1.1230 during the London trading session. The 50, 100, and 200 moving averages remained on neutral territory, with resistance levels at 1.1250 and support levels currently at 1.1200.

The MACD is currently at the center of the range. If the MACD returns to negative territory, then this will signal a strengthening of sellers, while a move into the positive territory is an indicator of a possible takeover of buyers in the financial market. The currency pairís RSI levels remain at the neutral range.

Should sellers be able to force down pricing levels below the 1.1200 range, then the currency value of the EUR/USD is expected to go up at 1.1150. However, it is also highly possible that this would even go as far as the 1.1250 trading range.



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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: October 4, 2016
« Reply #35 on: October 04, 2016, 05:08:22 PM »

The EUR/USD pair hit all-new lows after succumbing to pressure during the New York trading session as the US dollar received a boost from positive US economic data. The EUR/USD pair was able to break through its range from the past session and was able to approach the 1.12 trading range but also managed to have support just a few pips beyond the psychological level.

September saw the ISM Manufacturing Index increase by up to 51.5 points from Augustís 49.4 points. The ISM index also went into the contraction range for the first time since February and went above the expected 50.3 range. Market sentiment surrounding the Deutsche Bank issue also somewhat stabilized during Mondayís session even as the German market was closed due to a holiday. European indices also increased due to an upsurge in oil prices.

Technical support levels, particularly immediate support levels, are seen at 1.1183 points in the 100-day SMA, 1.1160 in the 200-day SMA, and 1.1122 points at the September and August lows. Resistance levels are at 1.1250 points for the September highs, 1.1283 points for the September 15 high, 1.1326 for the September 8 high, and 1.1365 for the August trading high.


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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: October 12, 2016
« Reply #36 on: October 12, 2016, 06:25:03 PM »

   The EUR/USD pair was able to extend the sell-off during the Asian trading session and is now targeting the monthly pivot support at 1.1024 points. The decrease in the value of the EUR/USD might be attributed to the sudden controversial drop of the EUR/GBP pair, which shook the whole market in general. The strengthening of the USD has also added pressure on the pair, particularly now that the US dollar is now transacting against risky currencies such as the NZD and AUD.

   On the other hand, the bearish break through of the pair at the 1.11 range again served as a level support for the pair, a function well-used since August. The EUR/USD pair experienced a small recovery after increasing up to 1.1068 before weakening further to 1.1042 points.

   The daily chart for the currency pair shows the trend line going around the 1.1042 range. A break below this particular range could cause a test of the 1.10 range, and might lead to a weakening of up to 1.0911. On the higher side, if the pair goes over its daily high of 1.1068, then this could lead to the pair reaching the 5-DMA of 1.1115 and possibly the 200-DMA of 1.1169.



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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: November 02, 2016
« Reply #37 on: November 04, 2016, 06:34:49 PM »


   The EUR/USD pair increased up to 1.1068, its highest level reached in 3 weeks after the dollar traded significantly lower after the results of the US Presidential poll showed that Trump went one point higher than Clinton with regards to votersí intentions. Meanwhile, US macroeconomic releases came out on a positive note after the Markit PMI data for October came out at 53.4, its highest data release for 2016.


   In spite of positive US data which strengthens the possibility of an interest rate hike in December, the USD is still in danger of dropping in value during the Tokyo session due to the negative market sentiment with regards to the US dollar. The 4-hour chart for the currency pair exhibits high overbought rates for the technical indicators even though the EUR/USD had a bare minimum of additional 100 pips on a daily basis, which is also an indicator that there is a possibility that the EUR/USD could gain more profit.


   The EUR/USD will have to go above its daily highs in order to incur more gains since this is the 50% retracements of its most recent drop in value. The movement of the EUR/USD is expected to slow down during the Tokyo session prior to the FOMC meeting which will determine whether the USD will be able to sustain its current bearish stance.


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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: November 18, 2016
« Reply #38 on: November 18, 2016, 05:15:02 PM »


The market trend yesterday was pessimistic as it continued going down almost to lower physiological levels. The price activity remained calm with the latest lows during the Asian session. The uptrend was held back as it reached the 1.0750 mark resulting to a decline of the pair.


The Moving Averages stayed a bearish tone while Euro was seen to break in the 50-EMA followed by the retest in 100-EMA chart. The Resistance level is at 1.0750 while the support is seen at 1.0700 level. The technical indicators showed a bearish tone upon entering the negative zone. Both MACD and RSI indicator were seen within the oversold area.


If the pair did not go beyond the 1.0700 mark, the prices might go lower towards the 1.0650 level and will remain consolidated unless it will break at 1.0750 level.


The Eurozone CPI results for October were positive while the monthly CPI failed to meet expectations. The dollar slightly weakened but there are still appreciation seen to new highs. This is because of investors waiting for the next Fed rate hike on December and further strengthening of the economy.

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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: November 29, 2016
« Reply #39 on: November 30, 2016, 02:49:29 PM »


The remarks made by Mario Draghi was the center of attraction of the market yesterday. As investors anticipated for an improvement in policy and economy, as well as other concerns related with the June 23 referendum. Meanwhile, bears became active again this time. The previous recovery loses its gains around the 1.0700 region. The pair withdrawn from its recent highs and lowered down towards 1.0650 level amid post-EU hours. Moreover, seller's maneuvered the price near the 1.0600 during the EU session. The price pushed the 200-EMA below and found a barrier within the 50 and 100 EMAs as indicated in the 1-hour chart. The 200-day moving averages headed downwards, the 100-day average has established a neutral stance and the 50-day heightened. The resistance settled at 1.0650, support entered the 1.0600 level. The MACD increased and specified weaker position for the sellers. RSI headed southwards.



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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: December 12, 2016
« Reply #40 on: December 13, 2016, 06:22:57 PM »


The decision of the ECB to maintain its monetary policy had strengthened the dollar. However, the euro is weakening once again after it made a dipped on its fresh monthly highs and failed to hold its gains. Meanwhile, the EURUSD headed southwards on Friday. During the EU hours, the sellers successfully broke the 1.0600 region then continued to lead the prices through the 1.0550 lower, the pair surpass this level amid the NY session. The price rebounded in the 200-EMA downwards as shown in the 4-hour chart. After the euro and greens had broke both 50 and 100-EMAs, it continued to progress down in the moving averages. While the 100 and 200 EMAs preserved its bearish bias, 50 EMA rendered a neutral stance. Resistance touched the area of 1.0600, support is seen at 1.0550.


The MACD histogram makes its entry point within the negative zone. Should the indicator kept unmoved in the negative area, the sellers are able to gain further strength. The RSI remains oversold.


In case the prices settled below the 1.0600 support level, this will cause for a short-term downtrend. The next target of the sellers is  1.0500 and 1.0550.



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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: December 19, 2016
« Reply #41 on: December 19, 2016, 02:01:47 PM »

The trade balance in the Euro area declined in October, same scenario with the volume of exports but the import volume increased despite the decrease in the value of European currency. Moreover, the euro made a recovery on Friday. Traders broke the price and reached 1.0450 as they made some reversal on its previous losses. Meanwhile, buyers were unable to regain the level which caused an ascending motion of impetus to fade thereupon the price move towards a lower area. The 50-EMA pass over the 100-EMA downwards as shown in the 4-hour chart. The entire moving averages headed lower. Resistance touch the 1.0450 range, support lies at 1.0400.

The MACD histogram strengthened which means the positions for the sellers softened. RSI is in the oversold territory which indicates for another downward trend. According to speculations, the market will remain in the pressured area in case that EUR/USD fail to push the price higher, in return, the pair is expected to establish a weak point. The next target of the sellers is 1.0350 and 1.0400.

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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: December 20, 2016
« Reply #42 on: December 20, 2016, 01:45:13 PM »

Along with the positive report from the German Business climate is the strengthening of the single European currency.  But the upbeat of euro was impeded by a fresh selling interest.

Meanwhile, the market appeared to be calm within this week as the greenbacks slowed down towards its major rivals amid the Asian session. The EUR edged over the dollar and further recovered during the trades on Monday while the dollar continued to soften. Buyers pushed the price through 1.0475 level by which the sellerís resistance is found. The renewed selling pressure caused the pair to slid down the 1.0450 region in the post-EU open. Moreover, the pair approached the 1.0400 mark throughout the North American Trading session. The 50-EMA pass over the 100-EMA towards a lower point. The entire moving averages manage a descending trend. Current resistance touched the 1.0450 level, support settled within the 1.0400 area.

The MACD histogram declined as it indicated stronger stance for the sellers. RSI holds the oversold territory and signaled a downward movement.

Should the pair remained under the level of 1.0450 in order for the market to continue its moving to enter the 1.0350 and 1.0400 regions.

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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: January 5, 2017
« Reply #43 on: January 05, 2017, 05:06:13 PM »

The positive data from the Euro zone supported the single European currency which further strengthened versus its US peer. Based on the EU statistical data, the inflation rate of the European countries is fast growing. While the favorable Markit Services and Composite PMIs of France and Germany further reinforced the EUR.

Technically, the major pair maintained a mid-term downward channel within a lower boundary. However, the 4-hour chart showed a limited upside potential. The Fiber reversed some of its losses during the trades on Wednesday. The buyers drove the prices towards the 1.0450 level where an upward impetus gradually disappear in the middle session of the EU hours. After reaching the aforesaid level, euro return on its recent region where it stayed.

The 50-EMA is in a neutral position and have been tested by the price in the mentioned time frame accordingly, while the 200 and 100-EMAs headed downwards.

The EUR/USD hovered under the moving averages as the level of resistance touched the 1.0450 and support entered at 1.0400.

The MACD histogram increased which indicated a weak position for sellers. RSI moved in the neutral zone and departed from the oversold area.

As it was mentioned in the forecast, the EUR is expected to kept intact in the pressured area  but recovered the 1.0500 barrier. Buyers are able to lead the pair towards 1.0550. A break down from the 1.0400 handle will cause weakness for the EURUSD as well. The initial target of the sellers is 1.0350.

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EUR/USD Technical Analysis: January 11, 2017
« Reply #44 on: January 12, 2017, 02:14:20 PM »

The positive data from the Investor Confidence in Euroland had strengthened the single European currency yesterday. While, the U.S dollar was able to regain its losses last Tuesday as the Fed told to support the rate hike in 2017. The traders look forward to the ongoing status for Trumpís first conference scheduled today.

Moreover, the momentum of EU appears to be short-lived having touched the 1.0600 level amid the morning trades on Tuesday. After the daily high was set at 1.0626, the EURUSD moved back under 1.0600 in the post session of the European open.

The sellers drove the EUR downwards prior the opening of the New York trading. As shown in the 4-hour chart, the price resumed its development on top of the 200-EMA which considered to be pairís support. The 200 and 100-EMAs were trending flat while the 50-EMA headed upwards. Resistance entered the 1.0600 region, support is at 1.0550 handle. The technicals gradually approached the lower positive territory.

The MACD histogram declined which confirmed weak position for the buyers. The RSI oscillator hovered around the undervalued zone.

According to forecast, the bearish pressure will be renewed in the near-term. A rapid decline below the 1.0550 mark would indicate further vulnerability for the pair. The next bearish target is posted at the 1.0500 level.