Author Topic: AUD/USD Analysis from ForexMart  (Read 2813 times)

Offline Andrea ForexMart

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AUD/USD Analysis from ForexMart
« on: March 29, 2016, 05:59:24 PM »
Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: March 29, 2016

The Australian dollar edged up in today’s trading after mixed US data weighed down the dollar.

The US’ core PCE in February posted a dismal growth of 0.1 percent, missing the 0.2 percent forecast. The core PCE price index also performed below expectations as it rose annually by 1.7 percent. Meanwhile, consumer spending was went up by 0.1 percent, meeting government forecasts.

The US economy experienced a 1.4 percent growth in Q4, topping a 1.0 percent forecast, which carried the dollar slightly.

The Aussie dollar, which has risen by about 3.7 percent this year, is expected to continue a slow climb as talks of the currency’s overvaluation is still in the air. Investors are still waiting if the RBA will cut interest rates to keep it from further ascent.

A speech by Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen later today may sway investors to buy back the dollars.

The pair is now facing a ceiling at 0.7572 and can be seen testing 0.76.

The first support was at 0.7519 and 0.7481 subsequently. The first resistance was 0.7585 and 0.7623 subsequently.

The MACD indicator is at a negative location. The price is falling.



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AUD/USD Analysis from ForexMart
« on: March 29, 2016, 05:59:24 PM »

Offline Andrea ForexMart

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Fundamental Analysis for AUD/USD: April 11, 2016
« Reply #1 on: April 11, 2016, 06:59:05 PM »
We see a weakening Australian dollar against the USD as recently released data proved that the first quarter has been sluggish despite the overvalued currency.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will welcome the soft currency as board members have been saying that they prefer a lower exchange, although they did not cut interest rates in the latest policy meeting.

Australia’s home loans released on Monday showed a 1.5 percent rise against a 4.4 percent drop in February, failing to reach the 2.0 percent projection.

China, Australia’s largest partner in trade, also helped AUD’s price decline with an unchanged year-on-year inflation rate of 2.3 percent in March, missing a forecasted 2.5 percent. Wholesale prices contracted for the 49th consecutive month by 0.4 percent.

Investors will have a lot to look forward to as Australia’s consumer sentiment index will be published on Tuesday and data on the country’s labor market will be released on Wednesday. RBA’s first financial stability review will come on Thursday.

The AUD is trading 0.7535 against the USD.  The first support occurred at 0.7527 and 0.7489 subsequently. The first resistance occurred at 0.7608 and 0.7649 subsequently.

The MACD indicator is in a negative position and the price is falling.



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Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: April 12, 2016
« Reply #2 on: April 12, 2016, 04:34:29 PM »
The Aussie dollar rallied from a slight dip during earlier session and is now at 0.7617 against the US dollar. The improvement was due to the National Australia Bank’s solid business confidence report.

NAB revealed that the business confidence index grew to +6 in March from February's +3.  According to survey results of more than 400 companies, business conditions increased to +12, the country’s best since 2008.

The services industry was the strongest, followed by manufacturing, construction, and transport. The mining sector was still the weakest.

Meanwhile, the USD still failed to recover after Fed’s decision to take a more cautious approach in tightening monetary policy.

AUD is now testing 0.77 levels. The upcoming release of Australia’s unemployment rate this week and China’s dataflow is expected to sway investor sentiment next.

The first support is at 0.7562 and 0.7524 subsequently. The first resistance is at 0.7666 and 0.7704 subsequently.

The MACD indicator is in a negative position. The price is rising.



Offline Andrea ForexMart

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Fundamental Analysis for AUD/USD: April 13, 2016
« Reply #3 on: April 13, 2016, 05:00:45 PM »
The Westpac Consumer Sentiment slid in April for the second consecutive month to 95.1 percent from March’s 99.1 percent. A level below 100 shows that pessimists outnumber the optimists for the short-term and long-term outlooks.

The consumers’ bias toward economic conditions over the next 12 months and the next five years were reduced by 5.5 percent and 5.9 percent, respectively. Family finances compared to one year ago dropped by 3.8 percent, while family finances over the next 12 months waned by 6.6 percent.

Meanwhile, the unemployment expectations index softened by 1.8 percent, which means that consumer confidence on low unemployment rate is high.

The disappointing and a bit surprising figures squashed hopes that the public’s confidence will follow a considerably optimistic trend because of the previous four consecutive releases above 100. 
Westpac chief economist Bill Evans said that consumers are probably seeing the strong Australian dollar as detrimental for future growth. The media and RBA officials have openly said that the AUD may be overvalued.

The low consumer sentiment is offset by China’s hefty trade data which sent the AUD to bullish territory. After a 25.4 percent fall in March 2015, Chinese exports grew by an immense 11.5 percent, surpassing the forecasted 2.5 percent by leaps and bounds. However, it is important to note that the measured period included the Lunar New Year, a considerably lavish celebration by the Chinese.

Chinese imports contracted by 7.6 percent, positively missing the projected 10.2 percent decrease. This leaves the country’s trade balance at $29.86 billion, slimmer than the estimated $34.95 billion.

Mixed statements from Fed officials on Tuesday injected volatility into the US currency as Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker said that he is backing rate hikes this year due to inflation’s fast pace. Meanwhile, Fed Dallas President Robert Kaplan said that an interest rate in April does not bode well for the weak economic growth.

Furthermore, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its 2016 economic growth forecast by 0.2 percent, the third consecutive cuts it made since July last year. IMF estimated the US economy to grow by only 2.4 percent this year, lower than January’s 2.6 percent projection.

The AUD has broken into 77 cents in earlier session, but is now back to 0.7670.



Offline Andrea ForexMart

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Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: April 14, 2016
« Reply #4 on: April 14, 2016, 04:37:59 PM »
Upbeat labor data failed to lift the AUD above 76 cents against the USD. The Australian dollar opened at 0.7654 and hit a day low of 0.7619 in later session.

The first support is at 0.7602 and 0.7563 subsequently. The first resistance is at 0.7685 and 0.7724 subsequently.

The dip comes after the Australian Bureau of Statistics revealed positive employment figures, most of it surpassing projections. The unemployment rate in March was at 5.7 percent, 0.1 percent lower than February’s 5.8 percent. Analysts expected it to increase to 5.9 percent in March.

This is the lowest unemployment rate since September 2013. According to employment minister Michaelia Cash, the number of working people increased 2.2 percent, while the unemployed fell by 4.6 percent in the past 12 months. Furthermore, 26,100 jobs were also added, topping an estimated 20,000 additional jobs.

The report also showed that people scored more part-time jobs as it increased by 34,900, a 10-month high, while full-time jobs dwindled by 8,800. Participation rate rose by 0.9 percent.

However, investor sentiment was unfazed as more sold their AUD for a slowly recovering greenback despite US retail sales in the red. The US inflation report will be published later today.

The MACD indicator is in a negative position. The price is decreasing.



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Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: April 25, 2016
« Reply #5 on: April 25, 2016, 06:34:01 PM »
After the Australian dollar shot up to a 10-month high last week at 0.7834, it entered a bearish weekend and is still extending losses. The exchange rate is now at 0.7716 although it posted a day high of 0.7728 earlier which was almost immediately trimmed.

The AUD has the rising commodity prices and a generally weak USD to reverse the uptrend, but we are expecting the losses to extend at least until the Q1 CPI on Tuesday.  Exports and imports figures will be published on Wednesday. RBA assistant governor Guy Debelle will also deliver a speech on Thursday that may foreshadow the direction of future monetary policies.

The highlight this week is the Fed’s announcement on Wednesday about its interest rates. Consumer confidence is also due on Tuesday.

The first support is at 0.7661 and 0.7622 subsequently while the first resistance is at 0.7743 and 0.7781 subsequently.

The MACD indicator is in negative territory. The price is rising.

Australian markets are on a break today as it celebrates the Anzac day.



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Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: May 6, 2016
« Reply #6 on: May 06, 2016, 05:56:16 PM »
The anticipation for the US’ nonfarm payrolls blocked the AUD’s slight uptrend on Thursday session, sending it down to slump at 0.73. The current spot exchange is 0.7372.  A decline in crude oil prices and the RBA’s statement of monetary policy (SOMP) released today tightened the bears’ grip on the AUD/USD.

After the RBA slashed interest rates to 1.75 percent on Tuesday, its SOMP revealed further cuts on inflation forecasts. From the previous estimate of 2 to 3 percent growth, the RBA lowered its projection for the 2016 to just 1 to 2 percent. The central bank is aiming for a 2 to 3 percent inflation rate by the end of the year.

Forecasts for the next two years’ inflation were also revised down to 1.5 to 2.5 percent from the initial 2 to 3 percent.  RBA’s statements indicated another possible rate cut.

The MACD indicator is in a negative location. The first support is at 0.7459 and 0.7422 subsequently. The first resistance is at 0.7522 and 0.7560 subsequently. The price is falling.



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Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: May 10, 2016
« Reply #7 on: May 10, 2016, 06:15:08 PM »
The AUD/USD has now settled at the 0.73 handle as data from China, Australia’s largest trade partner, did little to boost the Australian dollar’s value against the greenback. The AUD bottomed at 0.7299 today and peaked at 0.7351.

The impact of China’s bearish consumer prices, which grew by 2.3 percent in April from the same period last year, was lukewarm. Markets were expecting a 2.4 percent rise. Its PPI fell by 3.4 percent, not as much as the forecasted 3.8 percent decline. Exports and imports, which stood at -1.8 percent and -10.9 percent y/y respectively, were also on the red.

Buying interest on the USD firmed slightly due to an increase in wages, which was up 0.3 percent m/m in April and 2.5 percent y/y. Only 160,000 jobs were added to the nonfarm payrolls opposed to a projected 202,000 additional positions.

The spot exchange is now at 0.7339 and the price is rising. However, we are yet to see the AUD breach 0.74 today.

The immediate support is at 0.7272 and 0.7236 subsequently while the first resistance is at 0.7364 and 0.7397 subsequently. The MACD indicator is in a negative location.



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Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: May 23, 2016
« Reply #8 on: May 23, 2016, 06:52:51 PM »
The Aussie has found support at the 0.72 level after moving sideways since Thursday which we view as neutral. Our perspective is unlikely to change in the immediate future as there is little data scheduled to be released this week that will impact AUD/USD.

After closing in New York at 0.7228, the pair is now trading at 0.7250 after hitting an intraday high of 0.7261 in earlier session.

RBA Governor Glenn Stevens is scheduled to speak later today in Sydney. He is expected to to touch on Australia’s lagging inflation and labor market. Stevens may also hint the board members’ sentiment on an interest rate hike this month. The business capital expenditure report for the first quarter will be out this week, but low volatility is expected as markets’ focus are now on the country’s inflation.

On the US side, the FOMC minutes last week implied an earlier rate increase in June, ahead of the September monetary policy meeting where the benchmark rate is expected to rise.

The first support occurs at 0.7225 and 0.7210 subsequently. The first resistance occurs at 0.7333 and 0.7436 subsequently.

The MACD indicator is in negative location. The price is climbing.



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Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: June 7, 2016
« Reply #9 on: June 07, 2016, 07:24:04 PM »
The Aussie dollar is holding on to the bulls with the latest decision from the RBA to keep interest rate at 1.75 percent, a widely-expected move based on strong economic indicators. The AUD/USD is trading at 0.7441 and rising.

The first support is seen at 0.7312 and 0.7167 subsequently while the first resistance is at 0.7530 and 0.7649 subsequently.

Australia’s GDP rose by 1.1 percent in the first quarter of 2016, with an annualized growth of 0.2 percent, the quickest in four years. However, RBA Governor Glenn Stevens said that low inflation and an appreciating domestic currency may pose greater risks to the economy. The RBA board expect inflation, which is at an annual rate of 1.3 percent, to reach their target of 2 to 3 percent.

A suddenly dovish Yellen is hurting the USD which rallied last week after a rate hike becomes more possible at Fed’s policy meeting in June.

The MACD indicator is in positive location. The price is climbing.



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Technical Analysis for NZD/USD: June 9, 2016
« Reply #10 on: June 09, 2016, 06:56:50 PM »
The RBNZ propelled the NZD to a 12-month high, pushing it through 0.71 levels against the USD after the central bank’s decision to keep interest rates at 2.25 percent. The bird has been hovering at 69 cents for quite a long time.

Reserve Bank Governor Graeme Wheeler left the door open for monetary easing and promised it to be “accommodative.” The central bank is specially keeping an eye on low inflation and expects it to firm and reach their target in the long term, although short-term inflation has been steady.

“We expect inflation to strengthen reflecting the accommodative stance of monetary policy, increases in fuel and other commodity prices, an expected depreciation in the New Zealand dollar and some increase in capacity pressures,” the bank said in a statement.

Uncertainty in the bank’s statements are keeping us from declaring the upside bullish, but a rate above 0.7146 will shift our outlook to a bullish one. NZD/USD is currently trading at 0.7125.

The first support is at 0.6960 and 0.6910 subsequently, while the first resistance occurs at 0.7045 and 0.7080 subsequently. The MACD indicator is in positive location. The price is rising. 



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Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: June 21, 2016
« Reply #11 on: June 21, 2016, 05:30:57 PM »
The Aussie dollar is benefiting from a volatile sterling and euro as investors seek a safe heaven in the AUD. The RBA meeting minutes headlined the impetus this week. The Board implied the importance of a weak domestic currency to support Q2 and Q3’s GDP growth. However, the minutes did not have a significant impact on the AUD/USD.

Australia’s house price index printed surprising numbers, declining by 0.2 percent in the first quarter of the year compared to the previous quarter’s 0.2 percent growth. Analysts expected a 0.8 percent rise in Q1.

Although AUD/USD is trading at 0.7487, the upsurge is limited due to easing commodity prices. The USD has been fairly quiet and is waiting for Yellen’s statement later on the semi-annual monetary policy report.

The first support can be found at 0.7454 and 0.7413 subsequently. The first resistance is at 0.7500 and 0.7550. The MACD indicator is positive location and the price is rising. However we are not expecting the AUD to break into the 0.75 level anytime today.



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Technical Analysis for AUD/USD: July 11, 2016
« Reply #12 on: July 11, 2016, 07:33:22 PM »
After the issuance of the monthly report for the non-farm payroll data, the AUD/USD pair quickly had a rise in price movement. Due to its strong report the Australian Dollar attracted more investors as presented in the daily swing chart. Technically, the pair demonstrated a horizontal price movement for the past few days near 50% levels. The main range is defined from .7285 to .7645 while reaching its 50% level that is .7465. At the same time, the short-term range had a moving average from .7645 to .7301. Its 50% level falls at .7473. If the two 50% levels is combined, the .7473 and .7465 will create a strong trend that would prevail on the existing market movement.

A strong move over .7571 will predict a downward change in value which is .7535 by which it would give a signal to the buyers. The angle of the moving average under .7571 will call the attention of the currency sellers. Long term investors should be cautious in dealing with this price since it is the trigger point of the potential targets .7573 and .7565. Traders are suggested to develop the sustained move above .7571 through a sharply bullish tone.



Offline Andrea ForexMart

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AUD/USD Technical Analysis: July 13 2016
« Reply #13 on: July 13, 2016, 05:36:10 PM »
AUD/USD recorded its highest stock price on May 3. But today the pair obtained a lower rate after a growth surge that happened yesterday. The recent strength of the market's trend was remarked by the appetite for risk in the global economy.

The Aussie Dollar has improved since the Reserve Bank of Australia reduced interest rates and they are now regenerating all their losses during the post-Brexit.

The daily swing chart defined the pair's main trend as an uptrend and made it cut down the Brexit top that changed the .7645 into .7285 as the market bottom.

The main price range is .7834 to .7145. The retracement alert level is close above .7569 to .7487, this shows a chance of an upside strengthening.

The market movement occurred to an uptrending angle at .7665 by which it is close to the result of yesterday’s strength at .7622.

Meanwhile, AUD/USD may take a bullish or long position in certain securities due to a sustained market movement over .7665 and this would probably begin an upside momentum to rotate the downtrending angle at .7687.

Technically, it is difficult to deal with .7665 and coping with this real time exchange rate will signal the presence of more sellers than buyers. If the price continued a downward sloping average below .7539, it indicates weakness for the next target.



Offline Andrea ForexMart

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AUD/USD Technical Analysis: July 29 2016
« Reply #14 on: July 29, 2016, 06:25:01 PM »
The U.S Federal reserve remained their decision in keeping the rates constant but the dollar still falls below. The financial market is uncertain if the Fed will made some changes in U.S bank rates for the month of September.

The financial instrument stays well below from its daily high at 0.7550.The currency pair test the level 0.7500 and indicated a bearish side. The resistance level lies at 0.7600 while the support can be seen at 0.7500.

RSI occurred in the overbought market which implies a sell signal whereas the MACD depreciated by which resulted the position of the buyers to weaken.

The exponential moving average of the pair is directed to 50 and 100 day in the hourly chart. It also presented 50, 100 and 200 which are neutral moving averages.

In case that the price of the pair breaks beyond the resistance level of 0.7500 and bounds lower down the trendline is expected to continue. The next target of the investor is the support level at 0.7400.