Weekly Trading Forecast and EUR/USD Update 18 Feb 17



Good day forex traders.

As we approach the new trading week, let us get an overview of the major currencies pair provided in our forum by analyst75.

Here’s the market outlook for the week:

EURUSD
Dominant bias: Bearish

From Monday to Wednesday, this pair went downwards, moving below briefly below the support line at 1.0550. Price then rallied above the resistance line at 1.0650, before getting corrected lower on Friday. The outlook on the market is bearish, and further bearish movement is expected this week, as price targets the support lines at 1.0550 (which was tested last week), 1.0500 and 1.0450.

USDCHF
Dominant bias: Bearish

Oddly enough, the current outlook on USDCHF is bearish, just like the outlook on EURUSD. One of the reasons behind this is occasional bouts of stamina in CHF, which sometimes put checks on USDCHF bullish ambitions. The market level at 1.0000 has now become insignificant, since price just goes above and below it at will. For example, price went below it on February 16, only to go above it on February 17. Only a very strong bearish plunge on EURUSD would help push USDCHF upwards considerably.

GBPUSD
Dominant bias: Neutral

GBPUSD has been moving sideways for at least, two weeks. The market did nothing noteworthy last week. This directionless movement would soon end, and a strong momentum would rise, pushing price in a clear direction. A closer look at the market shows that bears’ hands are currently stronger than bulls’ hands, and following the ongoing impasse, price could plunge southwards. The outlook on GBP pairs remains bearish.

USDJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish

In the context of a downtrend, price moved upwards from February 9 – 15, and then began to pull back from that day. On February 17, price closed below the demand level at 113.000, leading to a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. The targets for this week are the demand levels at 112.50, 112.00 and 111.50. This, however, does not rule out a possibility of a strong rally before the end of the month.

EURJPY
Dominant bias: Bearish

This cross is bearish in the long-term and neutral in the short-term. The market consolidated from Monday to Friday and then started moving downwards as it plunged by over 120 pips that day. This is in agreement with the southward movement that was started in the beginning of this month; plus further southward movement is possible. On the other hand, a possibility of a serious rally still remains… on JPY pairs.

This forecast is concluded with the quote below:
“For some traders, commitment to success is not optional but mandatory.” – Joe Ross

 

On a side note, Bloomberg reported that the German Chancellor has responded to the US President comment on Germany having an unfair trading advantage :-

“German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the euro has a “valuation problem” that’s beyond her control and questioned President Donald Trump’s suggestion that the German luxury cars in his New York neighborhood reflect an unfair trade advantage.

Merkel said the euro’s exchange rate does contribute to Germany’s trade surplus, though that’s because European Central Bank’s needs to set monetary policy that responds to disparate economic performances across 19 nations. The euro reached a 14-year low of $1.0388 in December and closed at $1.0616 on Friday.
“If we still had the deutsche mark, it would be valued differently than the euro is now,” Merkel said in response to a question about Germany’s current-account surplus at the Munich Security Conference on Saturday. “But that’s an independent monetary policy over which I as chancellor have zero influence.” ”
I would also like to draw your attention to the comment by Merkel that the European Central Bank needs to set policies that responds to the various economies of the Euro Zone. As I mentioned always, it is a challenge that weights down on the Euro region.

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