Hello dear friends! I hope you are feeling good so far.
By the start of the market this Sunday, I gave a look to my daily eurusd chart and my 21 Ema. Market starts with a very little gap to upside right above the 21 Ema. Taking a look at the chart, let me tell you what I am expecting for this week on the EUR/USD :
Given the data released last Friday, as you know we had Non-Farm Employment Change with 74K against the 196K expected. Although this is not negative but it is far below the forecast! We had Unemployment Rate slowly showing signs of USA economy recovery with 6.7 against 7.0 expected. I was expecting according to our last trade plan a bearish continuation pattern below 1.3620-1.3600 but the Non-Farm Employment Change coming in below the expectation messed up my trading plan and no trade was taken by me. If the US Non-Farm Employment Change was better than expected together with the 6.7% unemployment rate, I would definitely turn my trading mode to bearish that day. Both euro zone and USA show signs of an economic recovery and this make things more interesting. So given the conditions now, I am expecting a sideway condition for eurusd between 1.3800-30 and 1.3600 at least for a while and we can take advantage on it.
On daily chart we have a clear support area between 1.3655 and 1.3620. My trade plan here is to buy eurusd as long it remains closing above this area. Today is only the start of the week and I do prefer trading when the things are clear enough to take the risk. So to be sure of this trade look for candlestick patterns that have big shadows trying to crack down our support area but with closes above 1.3655 for better probability . Something like you can see in the black circles in the chart. Notice the big shadows in the candles for the days: September 13, October 16 and December 04 right before the big moves happened! Look for something like this above our support area of 1.3655 and 1.3620. These patterns are the main core of my trading strategy.
I am going to use a stop loss below this area probably something around 60 to 80 pips stop loss targeting 1.3800-30. If everything run as planned, we´ll have at least a 2R (Risk) trade in our pockets.
Around 1.38 I believe we can search for shorting opportunities but this is for another trade plan.
That is it folks. I hope we can profit and learn with this trade if taken.
Nice week my friends.