Masoud EUR/USD Forecast July 8


Hello koala king and folks.

Good day to you.

Unemployment in the euro area in May reached its highest level. The unemployment rate in the euro area rose to 12.1% of the active population and more than 19 million people are suffering from unemployment. The unemployment rate in the same period last year was 11.3 percent of the working population in the area. Economic crisis in the euro area over the past year, particularly in countries where unemployment is high has taken a toil on the developed economies.

Europe’s central bank announced that in 2012, euro foreign exchange reserves of central banks around the world have fallen for the third consecutive year. Foreign exchange reserves of the central banks of euro in funds last year was 23.9 percent and 1.2 percent lower compared to the year 2011. Debt crisis in Europe and weakening of the euro area financial system are the reduction factors.

Europe Central Bank’s policy meeting held on last Thursday suggested a dovish stance on interest. Mario Draghi, President of the Central Bank of Europe, said the council announced that interest rates would stay for a longer period at the current level or lower.

One hundred and ninety-five thousand American employees in June were employed versus the estimate of one hundred and sixty-five thousand jobs. America’s Labor Department announced the unemployment rate remained at 7.6 percent this month. The unemployment rate in America was 8.2 percent in the same month the year before.

Despite the stability in the unemployment rate in June, analysts expect the US Federal Reserve to continue its economic stimulus so as to focus on gradually reducing unemployment. In order to hold down borrowing costs and help stimulate economic growth, eighty-five billion dollars of bonds are bought monthly by the US Federal Reserve to inject liquidity into the economy.

Credit Rating Agency Standard and Poor’s on Friday in the case of Portuguese debt outlook changed from stable to negative. Portugal’s political crisis caused by unexpected resignation of Finance Minister and Foreign Minister of the coalition government caused the interest rate on government bonds of Portugal in Lisbon stock market to rise sharply.

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Technical perspective: EUR/USD downward trend continued this week, as long as EUR/USD is below 1.30, the main trend is downward. If the EUR / USD remains below 1.28, the first target is 1.27. But if it fails to close below this level (1.28), a return will be made to test 1.30.

Have a nice time.

Masoud.

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