Elmar EUR/USD Trading Plan 16 Apr 13




Hello Friends for another exciting week of trades!

My last week of trades was weak but yet positive. Let´s go for our weekly outlook to our most traded instrument eurusd technically speaking!

Looking to Monthly chart you´ll notice that bears dominated February for a 552 pips drop. I remember well a good friend and an assiduous reader of TheGeekKnows, Lawrence, foresaw bears coming up to the market with an impressive accuracy. March continued its significant bearish move for around 255 pips drop. Now, April started a bullish climb with around 248 pips until now and we are just at April 15! My point of view is that a bullish correction is happening. If you draw a Fibonacci on monthly chart you´ll notice that if my prediction is right, we can see prices going up to 1.3336-66.
But in other hand, this bullish correction may not occur. Why? Well, see for yourself and make a comparison between two months drop with around 800 pips and the last two weeks climb with 300 pips! What side, bear or bullish would you prefer to trade? Adding some mix in our signal, there is a Bullish Divergence on weekly chart! My point of view is that we need to observe a little more the moves to decide what side to trade.

Drop to smaller timeframe like daily chart and we´re draw our lines to our trade plan.

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Trade plan:

​Due to some mixed signals, I´d like to suggest a neutral area inside green box like you can see in the charts attached between 1.3115 and 1.2974, 38.2 and 23.6 Fibonacci levels respectively. Any break for both sides, shall trigger our trade.

​Bullish Trade plan: If we see a bullish continuation and daily close above 38.2 @ 1.3115, we´ll look for bullish opportunities targeting Fibonacci 50.0 @1.3229 and further up to 61.8 @ 1.4333 for a second target.

​Bearish Trade plan: In other hand, if we see a daily close below our green box area in 23.6 @ 1.2974, wait a little retrace back to 23.6 @ 1.2974 and 1.3. Look for a good H4 or H1 candlestick confirmation and you can short back to a retest of 1.2746 for around 200 pips profit. In both cases, never trade without a good money management and stop loss.

​Be patience and wait for the market to show you the trend. I´ll do it friends! If some change in our trade plan be needed, I´ll post in the forum. See you there folks.

Green pips for us all!

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