Masoud EUR/USD Forecast 19 Nov 12


 

Hello koala king and folks.

Good day to you.

Inflation in Spain, the fourth largest economy in the euro area, in October increased and reached the highest level since May last year. Inflation reached 3.5 percent in the month. Economists believe the rising cost of fuel has had a significant impact on the inflation rate. Europe’s central bank aims to keep inflation in European countries under two percent.

While Mario Draghi, president of the ECB mentioned that the Eurozone unemployment rate is very high and that economic activity has weakened sharply, some investors speculate that the end of the economic crisis in the region is near. Economic growth in Europe this year will fall 0.4 percent in the 27-nations and next year will grow only 0.1 percent. Regardless the unemployment rate continues to rise and it is predicted that the 11.3 percent this year may increase to 11.8 percent. In Portugal, the economic crisis deepened in the third quarter and the unemployment rate reached 15.8 percent, setting a new record.

Once again debate over the Greek debt has surfaced. According to one expert, it is time to write off part of the debt of Greece. However there are differences of opinion between Euro Zone governments and the IMF. Greek public sector debt is equivalent to 190 percent of gross domestic product. Experts believe that it is very unlikely to reduce this figure by 2020 to 120 percent.

Economic experts believe that the economic reform program of the French president is not effective enough. The Economist magazine has likened the economic situation to a ticking time bomb at the heart of Europe. According to the Council of Europe, the French economy after a short recession in 2012, would resume weak growth in 2013. The growth is estimated to not exceed 0.4 percent of the GDP. French Economic Commission for Europe in 2012 predicted about 0.2 percent. Unemployment rate will end the year at 10.2 percent.

 

eurusd chart

 

Technical perspective:

EUR/USD in time frame H4, has been in a downtrend channel. This week I expect the euro against the dollar is still weak. And the triangle you can see in the above picture, is not far from reaching the 1.2480 target.

Have a nice weekend.

Masoud.

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