Masoud EUR/USD Forecast 3 Sep 12


 

Hello koala king and folks.

Good day to you.

The figures show that Spain’s economy which is the fourth biggest economic power in Europe will be headed to more difficult days. The country’s GDP in the second quarter of this year compared to the first quarter is down 0.4 percent. Figures released last year showed that the gross domestic product fell 0.7 percent in the past nine months in total.

Greek coalition party leaders after a series of intense negotiations may have an agreement with the European Union and IMF officials regarding the financial assistance.

Mario Draghi, head of Europe’s central bank ECB believes that monetary policies sometimes require extraordinary measures. He touched again on the controversial issue of government bonds and emphasized on the need to reduce tensions in the euro area. The head of the German central bank’s is apparently against it. The thought is that it is like a drug which may cause the euro area countries to be addicted to it.

German unemployment rose for the fifth consecutive month. Although some reports link the impact of the debt crisis in the euro area to the increased unemployment in Germany, there are alternate opinions that the unemployment is merely the usual market cycle. German unemployment is currently around 7% which equates to almost three million of the country’s active population. This is the highest unemployment rate in the last ten months. As mentioned, there are a number of people who still believes that the German economy is still growing and this will come to pass.

Center for Union facts and figures about Europe mentioned on Friday that based on economic data, euro EU price index in August was more than the expected amount. According to the report, the consumer price index of the seventeen countries in the euro area increased 2.6 percent during the year. According to the same report, the unemployment rate in seventeen European countries in July this year reached a record eighteen million people. According to the report, that is the highest unemployment rate since 1995.

 

EUR/USD Chart

 

From a technical perspective:

As I said in the last analysis and expected, the euro strengthened against the us dollar. The trend is still bullish and the EUR/USD is still within the uptrend channel and as long as EUR/USD is above 1.2440, the main trend is still bullish. So the best strategy is to buy at the bottom.

Have a great weekend.

Masoud.

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